La Liga
Ath Bilbao vs 
Alaves Over / Under 2.5 Goals
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Under 2.5 goals at 53.4%, its strongest read on the Over / Under 2.5 Goals market. It is driven by both attacks and defences: Ath Bilbao have averaged 1.4 scored and 1.2 conceded, Alaves 1.6 and 1.2 over their recent games. That fits a balanced goals environment: 46.6% for over 2.5 and 72.6% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 2.4 goals a game. Ath Bilbao have gone over 2.5 in 2 of their last 5, Alaves in 2 of 5. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Total goals, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 91.5% | 8.5% |
| 1.5 goals | 72.6% | 27.4% |
| 2.5 goals | 46.6% | 53.4% |
| 3.5 goals | 25.1% | 75.0% |
| 4.5 goals | 11.4% | 88.6% |
| 5.5 goals | 4.5% | 95.5% |
Team goal lines
76.7%
42.7%
18.0%
66.1%
29.4%
9.6%
First-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 58.1% | 41.9% |
| 1.5 goals | 21.6% | 78.4% |
| 2.5 goals | 5.8% | 94.2% |
Second-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 82.2% | 17.8% |
| 1.5 goals | 51.6% | 48.4% |
| 2.5 goals | 25.0% | 75.0% |
This season (2026/27)
1.4Ath Bilbao goals scored per game1.2Ath Bilbao goals conceded per game40.0%Ath Bilbao Over 2.5 rate0.4Ath Bilbao 1st-half goals per game1.8Alaves goals scored per game1.0Alaves goals conceded per game50.0%Alaves Over 2.5 rate0.7Alaves 1st-half goals per gameGoals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
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In-depth analysis
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
51.3%Both Teams to Score46.6%Over 2.5 goalsOn the goals side, the model sees 46.6% for three or more goals and 72.6% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. Given Ath Bilbao favoured at 45.5%, a close contest often produces chances at both ends.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Ath Bilbao to win. See the full prediction →
Key players
This season’s squad only, rated on recent form; a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Ath Bilbao 3 · 1 draws · Alaves 1 · 2.4 goals/game.
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.
FAQ
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Ath Bilbao vs Alaves?
Our model rates Over 2.5 goals at 46.6% for Ath Bilbao vs Alaves.
Will there be a first-half goal in Ath Bilbao vs Alaves?
The model rates at least one goal before half-time at 58.1%.
How often have Ath Bilbao gone over 2.5 recently?
Ath Bilbao have gone over 2.5 in 2 of their last 5, Alaves in 2 of 5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals accuracy
How our Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 20,722 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Over / Under 2.5 Goals actually happened 47.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 18 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls
The model’s most recent graded Over / Under 2.5 Goals predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More La Liga, Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
