Osasuna vs Vallecano prediction & probabilities (2026-09-19)

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Osasuna vs Vallecano: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 17 Sep 2026

La Liga
Osasuna

DWWLL

Sat, 19 Sep 202613:00UK24°C · Clear
Vallecano

LDLWL

Model’s top convictions

74%

Over 1.5 goals

73%

Osasuna or draw

59%

Over 8.5 corners

Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Model pick

Osasuna47.4%

Win probability · fair 2.11

Top signals

Over 1.5 goalsLikely74.2%Fair 1.35
Osasuna or drawLikely73.1%Fair 1.37
Over 8.5 cornersClose call59.0%Fair 1.69

Model read

Osasuna versus Vallecano on 19 September 2026 tilts towards Osasuna in our numbers (47%), with plenty left over for the other outcomes. The numbers that frame it: • No strong lean on goals (49% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. • Head to head, the last 5 meetings gave 2 wins for Osasuna, 1 draws and 2 for Vallecano, averaging 3.0 goals a game. • The run in: Osasuna arrive W2 D1 L3, Vallecano W2 D1 L3. For shots markets, Raul García is the obvious watch at 1.7 on target per 90 in recent data. Discipline says sit it out: no bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 10.5 corners37.8%@ 2.65
Medium risk

Both teams to score52.7%@ 1.90
Draw or Vallecano52.6%@ 1.90
Under 2.5 goals51.4%@ 1.95
Random finds

1-1 correct score12.8%@ 7.81
1-0 correct score10.4%@ 9.60
2-1 correct score9.2%@ 10.88

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Osasuna

47.4%

Draw

25.7%

Vallecano

27.0%

Model

no bookmaker price published for this match yet

Goals

Over 1.5Strongest read · Likely74.2%Fair 1.35
Over 2.5Close call48.6%Fair 2.06
BTTS · YesClose call52.7%Fair 1.90

Corners

Over 8.5 cornersClose call59.0%Fair 1.69
Over 9.5 cornersClose call48.1%Fair 2.08
Over 10.5 cornersUnlikely37.8%Fair 2.65
Over 11.5 cornersLong shot28.7%Fair 3.48
Most cornersOsasuna57.3%Vallecano32.0%

Shots

Over 22.5 shotsLikely62.0%Fair 1.61
Over 24.5 shotsClose call49.4%Fair 2.03
Over 26.5 shotsUnlikely37.1%Fair 2.69
Over 28.5 shotsLong shot26.3%Fair 3.81

Recent shot volume

Osasuna10.7 taken8.3 faced
Vallecano12.3 taken17.7 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

First half / second half shots

Osasuna (5 games)

4.6 / 6.0

Vallecano (5 games)

4.6 / 7.4

Shots taken before and after half-time, per game, over the games in brackets. The bar is the share taken in the first half. This is Understat shot data with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, counted separately from the match shot totals above, so the two can differ. A match where the split could not be verified is left out rather than guessed.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.574.2%2.548.6%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.574.2%

Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Form & head-to-head

OsasunaDWWLL
VallecanoLDLWL

Last 5 meetings: Osasuna 2 · 1 draws · Vallecano 2 · 3.0 goals/game.

2026-01-24Vallecano 1-3 Osasuna
2025-09-14Osasuna 2-0 Vallecano
2025-01-19Osasuna 1-1 Vallecano
2024-09-16Vallecano 3-1 Osasuna
2024-04-20Vallecano 2-1 Osasuna

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

OsasunaVallecano
League position#13 of 20#11 of 20
Record W-D-L2-1-32-1-3
Current streakL3W1
Points per game1.171.17
Record, home vs away1-1-10-0-3
PPG, home vs away1.330.00
Goals scored per game0.831.67
Goals conceded per game2.002.50
Scored, home vs away0.331.33
Conceded, home vs away0.673.67
1st half goals per game0.200.80
2nd half goals per game0.800.80
Corners won per game3.46.0
Cards per game2.42.4
Fouls per game13.014.2
Red cards this season02
Shots per game10.611.8
Shots faced per game8.817.4
Shots on target per game4.65.6
1st half shots per game4.64.6
2nd half shots per game6.07.4
xG for per game1.331.29
xG against per game1.772.02
Over 2.5 rate

50.0%83.3%

BTTS rate

33.3%100.0%

Clean sheets

33.3%0.0%

Rates this season:OsasunaVallecano

League averages this season: 3.07 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 56% · BTTS in 56%. Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Raul GarcíaOsasuna · key player
To score13.4%7.46
1+ on target39.8%2.51
2+ shots28.0%3.57
Shots/90 3.55SoT/90 1.73Goals/90 0.49
Sergio CamelloVallecano · key player
To score24.8%4.03
1+ on target46.8%2.14
2+ shots42.0%2.38
Shots/90 2.82SoT/90 1.24Goals/90 0.56
Ante BudimirOsasuna · in form
To score42.3%2.36
1+ on target67.3%1.49
2+ shots76.5%1.31
Shots/90 3.13SoT/90 1.26Goals/90 0.62
AlemãoVallecano · in form
To score12.1%8.26
1+ on target36.3%2.75
2+ shots25.2%3.97
Shots/90 2.25SoT/90 1.05Goals/90 0.3
Kike BarjaOsasuna · in form
To score6.2%16.13
1+ on target12.0%8.33
2+ shots4.1%24.39
Shots/90 1.6SoT/90 0.64Goals/90 0.32
Álvaro GarcíaVallecano · in form
To score11.7%8.55
1+ on target48.8%2.05
2+ shots49.7%2.01
Shots/90 2.14SoT/90 0.86Goals/90 0.16

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Osasuna win2.18
Draw3.72
Vallecano win3.67
Both teams to score1.90

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.09
Over 1.5 goals1.35
Over 2.5 goals2.06
Over 3.5 goals3.73
Osasuna most2.18
Vallecano most3.67

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.37
Over 8.5 corners1.63
Over 9.5 corners2.03
Over 10.5 corners2.67
Osasuna most1.74
Vallecano most3.12

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.20
Over 3.5 cards1.48
Over 4.5 cards2.01
Over 5.5 cards3.03
Osasuna most2.92
Vallecano most2.11

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.31
Over 7.5 SoT1.55
Over 8.5 SoT1.92
Over 9.5 SoT2.51
Osasuna most1.67
Vallecano most3.53

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.61
Over 24.5 shots2.03
Over 26.5 shots2.69
Over 28.5 shots3.81
Osasuna most1.52
Vallecano most3.49

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.28
Over 22.5 fouls1.52
Over 24.5 fouls1.92
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 62.0% Over 24.5 49.4% Over 26.5 37.1% Over 28.5 26.3%
Most: Osasuna 65.6% Most: Vallecano 28.6%
Osasuna Over 13.2 50.5% Vallecano Over 13.2 24.5%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 76.3% Over 7.5 64.7% Over 8.5 52.1% Over 9.5 39.8%
Most: Osasuna 59.8% Most: Vallecano 28.3%
Osasuna Over 4.2 56.2% Vallecano Over 4.2 33.2%

Cards

Over 2.5 83.6% Over 3.5 67.7% Over 4.5 49.7%
Most: Osasuna 34.2% Most: Vallecano 47.4%
Osasuna Over 1.8 62.3% Vallecano Over 1.8 70.7%

Osasuna: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Raul García 3.55 1.73 0.49 39.8% 28.0% 13.4%
Ante Budimir 3.13 1.26 0.62 67.3% 76.5% 42.3%
Kike Barja 1.6 0.64 0.32 12.0% 4.1% 6.2%
Asier Osambela 1.28 0.55 0.18 13.3% 4.4% 4.6%
Romain Del Castillo 1.15 0.5 0.33 30.3% 20.2% 21.2%

Vallecano: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Sergio Camello 2.82 1.24 0.56 46.8% 42.0% 24.8%
Alemão 2.25 1.05 0.3 36.3% 25.2% 12.1%
Álvaro García 2.14 0.86 0.16 48.8% 49.7% 11.7%
Randy Nteka 1.89 0.85 0.37 32.1% 21.3% 15.5%
Jorge De Frutos 1.99 0.79 0.26 46.8% 47.1% 18.7%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Osasuna clean sheet 32.9%
Vallecano clean sheet 22.1%
Osasuna win to nil 25.0%
Vallecano win to nil 14.2%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 45.9% draw 26.9% away 27.3%
double_chance
1X 72.7% 12 73.1% X2 54.1%
dnb
home 62.7% away 37.3%
btts
yes 52.7% no 47.3%
clean_sheet
home 33.1% away 22.1%
win_to_nil
home 25.1% away 14.2%
winning_margin
home_by_1 22.6% home_by_2 14.0% home_by_3plus 9.3%
away_by_1 16.4% away_by_2 7.6% away_by_3plus 3.3%
correct_score
0-0 7.9% 0-1 7.5% 0-2 4.5%
0-3 1.7% 0-4 0.5% 0-5 0.1%
1-0 10.4% 1-1 12.8% 1-2 6.8%
1-3 2.5% 1-4 0.7% 1-5 0.2%
2-0 8.3% 2-1 9.2% 2-2 5.1%
2-3 1.9% 2-4 0.5% 2-5 0.1%
3-0 4.2% 3-1 4.6% 3-2 2.6%
3-3 1.0% 3-4 0.3% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 1.6% 4-1 1.8% 4-2 1.0%
4-3 0.4% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.5% 5-1 0.5% 5-2 0.3%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.6%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 12.8%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 92.1% under_0.5 7.9% over_1.5 74.2%
under_1.5 25.8% over_2.5 48.6% under_2.5 51.4%
over_3.5 26.8% under_3.5 73.2% over_4.5 12.5%
under_4.5 87.5% over_5.5 5.1% under_5.5 95.0%
odd_even
odd 48.5% even 51.5%
team_home
over_0.5 77.9% under_0.5 22.1% over_1.5 44.5%
under_1.5 55.5% over_2.5 19.4% under_2.5 80.6%
team_away
over_0.5 66.9% under_0.5 33.1% over_1.5 30.4%
under_1.5 69.6% over_2.5 10.2% under_2.5 89.9%
most
home 45.9% draw 26.9% away 27.3%
handicap
home_-2.5 9.3% away_+2.5 90.7% home_-1.5 23.3%
away_+1.5 76.7% home_-0.5 45.9% away_+0.5 54.1%
home_+0.5 72.7% away_-0.5 27.3% home_+1.5 89.1%
away_-1.5 10.9% home_+2.5 96.7% away_-2.5 3.3%
total_exact
exact_0 7.9% exact_1 17.9% exact_2 25.6%
exact_3 21.8% exact_4 14.3% exact_5 7.5%
exact_6 3.3% exact_7plus 1.8%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 33.8% draw 43.4% away 22.8%
total
over_0.5 67.5% under_0.5 32.6% over_1.5 30.9%
under_1.5 69.1% over_2.5 10.4% under_2.5 89.6%
btts
yes 18.0% no 82.0%
total_exact
exact_0 32.6% exact_1 36.5% exact_2 20.5%
exact_3 7.7% exact_4plus 2.7%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 36.9% draw 37.8% away 25.2%
total
over_0.5 75.6% under_0.5 24.4% over_1.5 41.2%
under_1.5 58.8% over_2.5 16.9% under_2.5 83.1%
btts
yes 25.2% no 74.8%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 27.1% H/D 5.0% H/A 1.7%
D/H 16.0% D/D 16.4% D/A 11.0%
A/H 2.3% A/D 4.9% A/A 15.7%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 73.1% under_7.5 26.9% over_8.5 61.4%
under_8.5 38.6% over_9.5 49.2% under_9.5 50.8%
over_10.5 37.4% under_10.5 62.6% over_11.5 27.1%
under_11.5 72.9% over_12.5 18.7% under_12.5 81.3%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 75.3% under_3.5 24.8% over_4.5 60.3%
under_4.5 39.7% over_5.5 45.0% under_5.5 55.0%
team_away
over_3.5 58.4% under_3.5 41.6% over_4.5 40.9%
under_4.5 59.1% over_5.5 26.3% under_5.5 73.7%
most
home 57.4% draw 10.5% away 32.1%
handicap
home_-3.5 26.1% away_+3.5 73.9% home_-1.5 46.4%
away_+1.5 53.6% home_-0.5 57.4% away_+0.5 42.6%
home_+0.5 67.9% away_-0.5 32.1% home_+1.5 77.2%
away_-1.5 22.8% home_+3.5 90.3% away_-3.5 9.7%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 62.0% under_22.5 38.0% over_24.5 49.4%
under_24.5 50.6% over_26.5 37.1% under_26.5 62.9%
over_28.5 26.3% under_28.5 73.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 74.8% under_10.5 25.2% over_12.5 58.9%
under_12.5 41.1% over_14.5 42.4% under_14.5 57.6%
team_away
over_10.5 50.0% under_10.5 50.1% over_12.5 31.9%
under_12.5 68.1% over_14.5 18.3% under_14.5 81.7%
most
home 65.6% draw 5.7% away 28.6%
handicap
home_-4.5 40.4% away_+4.5 59.6% home_-2.5 53.2%
away_+2.5 46.8% home_-0.5 65.6% away_+0.5 34.4%
home_+0.5 71.4% away_-0.5 28.6% home_+2.5 81.3%
away_-2.5 18.8% home_+4.5 88.7% away_-4.5 11.3%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 76.3% under_6.5 23.7% over_7.5 64.7%
under_7.5 35.3% over_8.5 52.1% under_8.5 47.9%
over_9.5 39.8% under_9.5 60.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 72.6% under_3.5 27.4% over_4.5 56.2%
under_4.5 43.8% over_5.5 39.9% under_5.5 60.1%
team_away
over_3.5 51.4% under_3.5 48.6% over_4.5 33.2%
under_4.5 66.9% over_5.5 19.2% under_5.5 80.8%
most
home 59.8% draw 11.9% away 28.3%
handicap
home_-2.5 34.6% away_+2.5 65.4% home_-0.5 59.8%
away_+0.5 40.2% home_+0.5 71.7% away_-0.5 28.3%
home_+2.5 88.9% away_-2.5 11.1%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 83.6% under_2.5 16.4% over_3.5 67.7%
under_3.5 32.3% over_4.5 49.7% under_4.5 50.3%
over_5.5 33.0% under_5.5 67.0%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 62.3% under_1.5 37.7% over_2.5 36.2%
under_2.5 63.8%
team_away
over_1.5 70.7% under_1.5 29.3% over_2.5 45.9%
under_2.5 54.1%
most
home 34.2% draw 18.3% away 47.4%
handicap
home_-1.5 19.2% away_+1.5 80.8% home_-0.5 34.2%
away_+0.5 65.8% home_+0.5 52.6% away_-0.5 47.4%
home_+1.5 70.1% away_-1.5 29.9%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 77.9% under_20.5 22.2% over_22.5 65.7%
under_22.5 34.3% over_24.5 52.2% under_24.5 47.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 73.2% under_9.5 26.8% over_11.5 53.9%
under_11.5 46.1% over_13.5 35.0% under_13.5 65.0%
team_away
over_9.5 78.5% under_9.5 21.5% over_11.5 60.9%
under_11.5 39.1% over_13.5 42.0% under_13.5 58.0%
most
home 41.5% draw 6.9% away 51.6%
handicap
home_-3.5 23.2% away_+3.5 76.8% home_-0.5 41.5%
away_+0.5 58.5% home_+2.5 62.0% away_-2.5 38.0%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 27.1% no 72.9%
home
yes 9.3% no 90.7%
away
yes 19.6% no 80.4%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0096 (55405 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Osasuna predictions · Vallecano predictions · La Liga

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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