La Liga
Betis vs 
Getafe Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 70.6%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 85.4% for over 2.5 to 36.2% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 53.1%. On the card count, Getafe are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 53.7%, with a level count at 17.3%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 85.4% | 14.6% |
| 3.5 cards | 70.6% | 29.4% |
| 4.5 cards | 53.1% | 46.9% |
| 5.5 cards | 36.2% | 63.8% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
60.2%
34.0%
75.7%
52.4%
Card handicap
| Betis line | Betis | Getafe |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 15.6% | 84.4% |
| -0.5 | 29.0% | 71.0% |
| +0.5 | 46.3% | 53.7% |
| +1.5 | 64.1% | 35.9% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 81.3% | 18.7% |
| 22.5 fouls | 70.1% | 29.9% |
| 24.5 fouls | 57.1% | 42.9% |
This season (2026/27)
1.6Betis cards per game9.2Betis fouls per game3.4Getafe cards per game12.6Getafe fouls per gameBookings are a lower-liquidity market, so calibration matters most here, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Betis vs Getafe. It tips Getafe for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
70.6%Over 3.5 cards21.0%Any red card60.2%Betis over 1.5 cards75.7%Getafe over 1.5 cards70.1%Over 22.5 foulsBy team, Betis over 1.5 cards sits at 60.2% and Getafe at 75.7%. A red card for either side is rated at 21.0% (Betis 7.1%, Getafe 15.0%). This season Betis have averaged 1.6 cards a game and Getafe 3.4.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Betis vs Getafe?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 70.6% for Betis vs Getafe.
Will there be a red card in Betis vs Getafe?
The model rates a red card for either side at 21.0%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Betis vs Getafe?
The model rates Getafe to pick up more cards at 53.7%, with a level count at 17.3%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 8,397 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Cards actually happened 73.2% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 15 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
AI experts on Cards
Open paper-trading picks from our model-strategy experts on this market, a transparent lab, never advice.
| Expert | Pick |
|---|---|
| corner_specialist v1.0 | Over 3.5 cards |
| cards_referee v1.0 | Over 3.5 cards |
More La Liga, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
