La Liga
Espanol vs 
Elche Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 65.9%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 82.4% for over 2.5 to 31.1% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 47.6%. Between the two sides, Elche are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 42.5%, with a level count at 18.8%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 82.4% | 17.6% |
| 3.5 cards | 66.0% | 34.1% |
| 4.5 cards | 47.6% | 52.4% |
| 5.5 cards | 31.1% | 68.9% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
64.2%
38.3%
66.7%
41.1%
Card handicap
| Espanol line | Espanol | Elche |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 22.4% | 77.6% |
| -0.5 | 38.7% | 61.3% |
| +0.5 | 57.5% | 42.5% |
| +1.5 | 74.5% | 25.5% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 86.7% | 13.3% |
| 22.5 fouls | 77.4% | 22.6% |
| 24.5 fouls | 65.9% | 34.1% |
This season (2026/27)
3.4Espanol cards per game18.2Espanol fouls per game2.2Elche cards per game13.0Elche fouls per gameBookings are a lower-liquidity market, so calibration matters most here, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Espanol vs Elche. The model leans toward Elche for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
66.0%Over 3.5 cards16.8%Any red card64.2%Espanol over 1.5 cards66.7%Elche over 1.5 cards77.4%Over 22.5 foulsBy team, Espanol over 1.5 cards sits at 64.2% and Elche at 66.7%. A red card for either side is rated at 16.8% (Espanol 10.3%, Elche 7.2%). This season Espanol have averaged 3.4 cards a game and Elche 2.2.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Espanol vs Elche?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 66.0% for Espanol vs Elche.
Will there be a red card in Espanol vs Elche?
The model rates a red card for either side at 16.8%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Espanol vs Elche?
The model rates Elche to pick up more cards at 42.5%, with a level count at 18.8%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 10,111 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 17 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More La Liga, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
