La Liga
Ath Bilbao vs 
Alaves Corners
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 9.5 corners at 50.1%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Across the lines, the model goes from 74.9% for over 7.5 to 20.4% for over 12.5, with over 9.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 51.5%. Head to head on corners, Ath Bilbao are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 60.6%, with a level count at 10.1%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Corners
Total corners, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 74.9% | 25.1% |
| 8.5 corners | 63.6% | 36.4% |
| 9.5 corners | 51.5% | 48.5% |
| 10.5 corners | 39.7% | 60.3% |
| 11.5 corners | 29.2% | 70.9% |
| 12.5 corners | 20.4% | 79.6% |
Who wins the corner count
Team corner lines
78.0%
63.8%
48.8%
57.4%
39.9%
25.4%
Corner handicap
| Ath Bilbao line | Ath Bilbao | Alaves |
|---|---|---|
| -3.5 | 29.2% | 70.9% |
| -1.5 | 49.8% | 50.2% |
| -0.5 | 60.6% | 39.4% |
| +0.5 | 70.7% | 29.3% |
This season (2026/27)
6.4Ath Bilbao corners won per game5.6Ath Bilbao corners conceded per game5.4Alaves corners won per game5.2Alaves corners conceded per gameCorners track territory and shot volume more than the scoreline, below are the model total-corner probabilities. The model edges Ath Bilbao.
In-depth analysis
51.5%Over 9.5 corners63.8%Ath Bilbao over 4.5 corners39.9%Alaves over 4.5 corners50.0%Odd corner totalSplit by side, Ath Bilbao over 4.5 corners sits at 63.8% and Alaves at 39.9%. This season Ath Bilbao have averaged 6.4 corners won a game and Alaves 5.4.
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many corners in Ath Bilbao vs Alaves?
The model rates over 9.5 total corners at 51.5% for Ath Bilbao vs Alaves.
Which team will win the corner count in Ath Bilbao vs Alaves?
The model rates Ath Bilbao to win the corner count at 60.6%, with a level count at 10.1%.
How many corners do Ath Bilbao and Alaves average this season?
Ath Bilbao have won 6.4 corners a game this season and Alaves 5.4.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 23,756 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Corners actually happened 54.2% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 17 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Corners calls
The model’s most recent graded Corners predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More La Liga, Corners
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
