Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Model pick
Ath Bilbao45.5%
Win probability · fair 2.20
Top signals
Ath Bilbao or drawLikely72.8%Fair 1.37
Over 1.5 goalsLikely72.6%Fair 1.38
Over 8.5 cornersLikely60.9%Fair 1.64
Model read
▾
The model leans Ath Bilbao at 46% when Ath Bilbao host Alaves in the La Liga on 19 September 2026. A lean, though, not a lock. No strong lean on goals (47% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. Fatigue may matter, with Alaves 3 days shorter on recovery than Ath Bilbao. For shots markets, Gorka Guruzeta is the obvious watch at 1.1 on target per 90 in recent data. History adds colour: across the last 5 meetings it is 3 wins for Ath Bilbao, 1 draws and 1 for Alaves at 2.4 goals per match. Form guide over the last six: Ath Bilbao W2 D1 L3, Alaves W3 D1 L2. Verdict: no bet. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
High risk
Over 2.5 goals46.6%@ 2.15
Over 10.5 corners39.7%@ 2.52
Over 11.5 corners30.5%@ 3.28
Medium risk
Draw or Alaves54.5%@ 1.84
Under 2.5 goals53.4%@ 1.87
Both teams to score51.3%@ 1.95
Random finds
1-1 correct score13.1%@ 7.66
1-0 correct score10.9%@ 9.17
2-1 correct score9.0%@ 11.05
Model vs market
Ath Bilbao
45.5%
Draw
27.2%
Alaves
27.2%
Model
no bookmaker price published for this match yet
Goals
Over 1.5Strongest read · Likely72.6%Fair 1.38
Over 2.5Close call46.6%Fair 2.15
BTTS · YesClose call51.3%Fair 1.95
Corners
Over 8.5 cornersLikely60.9%Fair 1.64
Over 9.5 cornersClose call50.1%Fair 2.00
Over 10.5 cornersUnlikely39.7%Fair 2.52
Over 11.5 cornersUnlikely30.5%Fair 3.28
Most cornersAth Bilbao60.5%Alaves29.2%
Shots
Over 22.5 shotsClose call59.8%Fair 1.67
Over 24.5 shotsClose call47.0%Fair 2.13
Over 26.5 shotsUnlikely34.9%Fair 2.87
Over 28.5 shotsLong shot24.3%Fair 4.12
Recent shot volume
Ath Bilbao13.0 taken11.3 faced
Alaves14.2 taken10.2 faced
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
First half / second half shots
Shots taken before and after half-time, per game, over the games in brackets. The bar is the share taken in the first half. This is Understat shot data with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, counted separately from the match shot totals above, so the two can differ. A match where the split could not be verified is left out rather than guessed.
Ath Bilbao (5 games)
7.8 / 6.2
Alaves (6 games)
5.0 / 9.2
Totals line guide
0.5·1.572.6%2.546.6%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.572.6%
Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Form & head-to-head
Ath BilbaoLLWWD
AlavesDWWLL
Last 5 meetings: Ath Bilbao 3 · 1 draws · Alaves 1 · 2.4 goals/game.
Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup
Gorka GuruzetaAth Bilbao · key player
To score21.6%4.63
1+ on target50.2%1.99
2+ shots59.0%1.69
Shots/90 3.02SoT/90 1.06Goals/90 0.37
MarianoAlaves · key player
To score17.2%5.81
1+ on target49.7%2.01
2+ shots24.1%4.15
Shots/90 2.58SoT/90 1.89Goals/90 0.52
Maroan SannadiAth Bilbao · in form
To score6.8%14.71
1+ on target34.9%2.87
2+ shots27.8%3.60
Shots/90 2.49SoT/90 1.03Goals/90 0.17
Antonio MartínezAlaves · in form
To score21.1%4.74
1+ on target50.3%1.99
2+ shots62.5%1.60
Shots/90 3.21SoT/90 1.06Goals/90 0.36
Iñaki WilliamsAth Bilbao · in form
To score14.3%6.99
1+ on target52.4%1.91
2+ shots56.8%1.76
Shots/90 2.34SoT/90 0.91Goals/90 0.19
Lucas BoyéAlaves · in form
To score35.8%2.79
1+ on target53.3%1.88
2+ shots67.4%1.48
Shots/90 2.99SoT/90 0.98Goals/90 0.57
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Ath Bilbao win2.22
Draw3.64
Alaves win3.64
Both teams to score1.95
Goals
Over 0.5 goals1.09
Over 1.5 goals1.38
Over 2.5 goals2.15
Over 3.5 goals3.99
Ath Bilbao most2.22
Alaves most3.64
Corners
Over 7.5 corners1.34
Over 8.5 corners1.57
Over 9.5 corners1.95
Over 10.5 corners2.52
Ath Bilbao most1.65
Alaves most3.42
Cards
Over 2.5 cards1.25
Over 3.5 cards1.59
Over 4.5 cards2.25
Over 5.5 cards3.53
Ath Bilbao most2.90
Alaves most2.15
Shots on target
Over 6.5 SoT1.40
Over 7.5 SoT1.70
Over 8.5 SoT2.19
Over 9.5 SoT2.97
Ath Bilbao most1.73
Alaves most3.35
Shots
Over 22.5 shots1.67
Over 24.5 shots2.13
Over 26.5 shots2.87
Over 28.5 shots4.12
Ath Bilbao most1.49
Alaves most3.67
Fouls
Over 20.5 fouls1.25
Over 22.5 fouls1.47
Over 24.5 fouls1.83
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots
Over 22.5
59.8%
Over 24.5
47.0%
Over 26.5
34.9%
Over 28.5
24.3%
Most: Ath Bilbao
67.1%
Most: Alaves
27.2%
Ath Bilbao Over 13.2
49.9%
Alaves Over 13.2
22.1%
Shots on target
Over 6.5
71.4%
Over 7.5
58.8%
Over 8.5
45.7%
Over 9.5
33.7%
Most: Ath Bilbao
57.7%
Most: Alaves
29.8%
Ath Bilbao Over 4.2
50.5%
Alaves Over 4.2
30.4%
Cards
Over 2.5
80.3%
Over 3.5
63.0%
Over 4.5
44.5%
Most: Ath Bilbao
34.5%
Most: Alaves
46.5%
Ath Bilbao Over 1.8
59.2%
Alaves Over 1.8
67.2%
Ath Bilbao: players to watch (recent-form projection)
O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.
Player
Shots/90
SoT/90
Goals/90
1+ SoT
2+ shots
To score
Gorka Guruzeta
3.02
1.06
0.37
50.2%
59.0%
21.6%
Maroan Sannadi
2.49
1.03
0.17
34.9%
27.8%
6.8%
Iñaki Williams
2.34
0.91
0.19
52.4%
56.8%
14.3%
Oihan Sancet
2.74
0.87
0.44
44.9%
56.0%
26.0%
Alex Berenguer
1.95
0.8
0.18
45.4%
43.3%
12.7%
Alaves: players to watch (recent-form projection)
O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.
Player
Shots/90
SoT/90
Goals/90
1+ SoT
2+ shots
To score
Mariano
2.58
1.89
0.52
49.7%
24.1%
17.2%
Antonio Martínez
3.21
1.06
0.36
50.3%
62.5%
21.1%
Lucas Boyé
2.99
0.98
0.57
53.3%
67.4%
35.8%
Abderrahmane Rebbach
1.77
0.63
0.04
31.1%
28.1%
2.3%
Carlos Benavídez
0.95
0.47
0.12
12.4%
3.0%
3.3%
Clean sheet & win to nil
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Ath Bilbao clean sheet
33.8%
Alaves clean sheet
23.3%
Ath Bilbao win to nil
25.3%
Alaves win to nil
14.8%
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home
45.1%
draw
27.4%
away
27.5%
double_chance
1X
72.5%
12
72.6%
X2
54.9%
dnb
home
62.1%
away
37.9%
btts
yes
51.3%
no
48.7%
clean_sheet
home
34.0%
away
23.3%
win_to_nil
home
25.4%
away
14.8%
winning_margin
home_by_1
22.7%
home_by_2
13.7%
home_by_3plus
8.7%
away_by_1
16.7%
away_by_2
7.6%
away_by_3plus
3.2%
correct_score
0-0
8.5%
0-1
7.9%
0-2
4.6%
0-3
1.7%
0-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
1-0
10.9%
1-1
13.1%
1-2
6.7%
1-3
2.4%
1-4
0.7%
1-5
0.1%
2-0
8.4%
2-1
9.0%
2-2
4.9%
2-3
1.8%
2-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
3-0
4.1%
3-1
4.4%
3-2
2.4%
3-3
0.9%
3-4
0.2%
3-5
0.1%
4-0
1.5%
4-1
1.6%
4-2
0.9%
4-3
0.3%
4-4
0.1%
4-5
0.0%
5-0
0.4%
5-1
0.5%
5-2
0.3%
5-3
0.1%
5-4
0.0%
5-5
0.0%
other
0.5%
likeliest_score
h
100.0%
a
100.0%
p
13.1%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5
91.5%
under_0.5
8.5%
over_1.5
72.6%
under_1.5
27.4%
over_2.5
46.6%
under_2.5
53.4%
over_3.5
25.1%
under_3.5
75.0%
over_4.5
11.4%
under_4.5
88.6%
over_5.5
4.5%
under_5.5
95.5%
odd_even
odd
48.4%
even
51.6%
team_home
over_0.5
76.7%
under_0.5
23.3%
over_1.5
42.7%
under_1.5
57.3%
over_2.5
18.0%
under_2.5
82.0%
team_away
over_0.5
66.1%
under_0.5
34.0%
over_1.5
29.4%
under_1.5
70.6%
over_2.5
9.6%
under_2.5
90.4%
most
home
45.1%
draw
27.4%
away
27.5%
handicap
home_-2.5
8.7%
away_+2.5
91.3%
home_-1.5
22.4%
away_+1.5
77.6%
home_-0.5
45.1%
away_+0.5
54.9%
home_+0.5
72.5%
away_-0.5
27.5%
home_+1.5
89.2%
away_-1.5
10.8%
home_+2.5
96.8%
away_-2.5
3.2%
total_exact
exact_0
8.5%
exact_1
18.8%
exact_2
26.1%
exact_3
21.5%
exact_4
13.7%
exact_5
6.9%
exact_6
2.9%
exact_7plus
1.5%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home
25.8%
draw
50.2%
away
24.0%
total
over_0.5
58.1%
under_0.5
41.9%
over_1.5
21.6%
under_1.5
78.4%
over_2.5
5.8%
under_2.5
94.2%
btts
yes
12.4%
no
87.6%
total_exact
exact_0
41.9%
exact_1
36.4%
exact_2
15.8%
exact_3
4.6%
exact_4plus
1.2%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home
42.6%
draw
33.0%
away
24.4%
total
over_0.5
82.2%
under_0.5
17.8%
over_1.5
51.6%
under_1.5
48.4%
over_2.5
25.0%
under_2.5
75.0%
btts
yes
32.3%
no
67.7%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H
20.5%
H/D
3.9%
H/A
1.5%
D/H
21.4%
D/D
16.6%
D/A
12.3%
A/H
3.5%
A/D
5.5%
A/A
15.0%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5
74.8%
under_7.5
25.2%
over_8.5
63.5%
under_8.5
36.5%
over_9.5
51.4%
under_9.5
48.6%
over_10.5
39.6%
under_10.5
60.4%
over_11.5
29.1%
under_11.5
70.9%
over_12.5
20.3%
under_12.5
79.7%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
78.0%
under_3.5
22.0%
over_4.5
63.8%
under_4.5
36.2%
over_5.5
48.8%
under_5.5
51.2%
team_away
over_3.5
57.2%
under_3.5
42.8%
over_4.5
39.7%
under_4.5
60.3%
over_5.5
25.3%
under_5.5
74.7%
most
home
60.7%
draw
10.1%
away
29.2%
handicap
home_-3.5
29.2%
away_+3.5
70.8%
home_-1.5
49.9%
away_+1.5
50.1%
home_-0.5
60.7%
away_+0.5
39.3%
home_+0.5
70.8%
away_-0.5
29.2%
home_+1.5
79.5%
away_-1.5
20.5%
home_+3.5
91.5%
away_-3.5
8.5%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5
59.8%
under_22.5
40.2%
over_24.5
47.0%
under_24.5
53.0%
over_26.5
34.9%
under_26.5
65.1%
over_28.5
24.3%
under_28.5
75.7%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_10.5
74.4%
under_10.5
25.6%
over_12.5
58.3%
under_12.5
41.7%
over_14.5
41.8%
under_14.5
58.2%
team_away
over_10.5
47.1%
under_10.5
52.9%
over_12.5
29.3%
under_12.5
70.7%
over_14.5
16.3%
under_14.5
83.7%
most
home
67.1%
draw
5.7%
away
27.2%
handicap
home_-4.5
41.7%
away_+4.5
58.3%
home_-2.5
54.6%
away_+2.5
45.4%
home_-0.5
67.1%
away_+0.5
32.9%
home_+0.5
72.8%
away_-0.5
27.2%
home_+2.5
82.5%
away_-2.5
17.5%
home_+4.5
89.6%
away_-4.5
10.4%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5
71.4%
under_6.5
28.6%
over_7.5
58.8%
under_7.5
41.3%
over_8.5
45.7%
under_8.5
54.3%
over_9.5
33.7%
under_9.5
66.3%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
67.9%
under_3.5
32.1%
over_4.5
50.5%
under_4.5
49.5%
over_5.5
34.3%
under_5.5
65.7%
team_away
over_3.5
48.4%
under_3.5
51.6%
over_4.5
30.3%
under_4.5
69.7%
over_5.5
17.1%
under_5.5
82.9%
most
home
57.7%
draw
12.5%
away
29.8%
handicap
home_-2.5
31.9%
away_+2.5
68.1%
home_-0.5
57.7%
away_+0.5
42.3%
home_+0.5
70.2%
away_-0.5
29.8%
home_+2.5
88.5%
away_-2.5
11.5%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5
80.3%
under_2.5
19.7%
over_3.5
63.0%
under_3.5
37.0%
over_4.5
44.5%
under_4.5
55.5%
over_5.5
28.3%
under_5.5
71.7%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_1.5
59.2%
under_1.5
40.8%
over_2.5
33.1%
under_2.5
66.9%
team_away
over_1.5
67.2%
under_1.5
32.8%
over_2.5
41.7%
under_2.5
58.3%
most
home
34.5%
draw
19.0%
away
46.5%
handicap
home_-1.5
19.0%
away_+1.5
81.0%
home_-0.5
34.5%
away_+0.5
65.5%
home_+0.5
53.5%
away_-0.5
46.5%
home_+1.5
71.5%
away_-1.5
28.5%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5
79.8%
under_20.5
20.2%
over_22.5
68.1%
under_22.5
31.9%
over_24.5
54.8%
under_24.5
45.2%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_9.5
78.5%
under_9.5
21.5%
over_11.5
60.8%
under_11.5
39.2%
over_13.5
41.8%
under_13.5
58.2%
team_away
over_9.5
76.3%
under_9.5
23.7%
over_11.5
57.8%
under_11.5
42.2%
over_13.5
38.8%
under_13.5
61.2%
most
home
48.8%
draw
6.9%
away
44.4%
handicap
home_-3.5
29.2%
away_+3.5
70.8%
home_-0.5
48.8%
away_+0.5
51.2%
home_+2.5
68.6%
away_-2.5
31.4%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes
20.8%
no
79.2%
home
yes
16.2%
no
83.8%
away
yes
5.5%
no
94.5%
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
La Liga
Ath Bilbao
Alaves