Celta vs Santander prediction & probabilities (2026-09-19)

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Celta vs Santander: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 17 Sep 2026

La Liga
Celta

LLDDD

Sat, 19 Sep 202617:30UK25°C · Clear
Santander

DLWLW

Model’s top convictions

82%

Celta or draw

74%

Over 1.5 goals

58%

Over 8.5 corners

Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Model pick

Celta57.7%

Win probability · fair 1.73

Top signals

Celta or drawVery likely82.5%Fair 1.21
Over 1.5 goalsLikely74.1%Fair 1.35
Over 8.5 cornersClose call58.0%Fair 1.72

Model read

"When model and market disagree on Celta, that gap is the story." The numbers leave little room for romance here: Celta at 58% against Santander, La Liga, 19 September 2026. No strong lean on goals (48% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. For shots markets, Ferrán Jutglà is the obvious watch at 1.2 on target per 90 in recent data. Recent form reads W0 D4 L2 for Celta against W2 D1 L2 for Santander. As a promoted side, Santander carry exactly the structural uncertainty our priors were built for. The engine passes on this one (no bookmaker price published for this match yet).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 9.5 corners47.1%@ 2.12
Draw or Santander42.3%@ 2.37
Over 10.5 corners36.8%@ 2.72
Medium risk

Under 2.5 goals51.5%@ 1.94
Not both teams to score50.9%@ 1.96
Over 2.5 goals48.5%@ 2.06
Random finds

1-0 correct score12.0%@ 8.31
1-1 correct score11.8%@ 8.45
2-0 correct score10.8%@ 9.23

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Celta

57.7%

Draw

24.7%

Santander

17.5%

Model

no bookmaker price published for this match yet

Goals

Over 1.5Strongest read · Likely74.1%Fair 1.35
Over 2.5Close call48.5%Fair 2.06
BTTS · YesClose call49.1%Fair 2.04

Corners

Over 8.5 cornersClose call58.0%Fair 1.72
Over 9.5 cornersClose call47.1%Fair 2.12
Over 10.5 cornersUnlikely36.8%Fair 2.72
Over 11.5 cornersLong shot27.7%Fair 3.61
Most cornersCelta55.0%Santander34.0%

Shots

Over 22.5 shotsClose call58.8%Fair 1.70
Over 24.5 shotsClose call46.0%Fair 2.17
Over 26.5 shotsUnlikely34.0%Fair 2.94
Over 28.5 shotsLong shot23.6%Fair 4.24

Recent shot volume

Celta9.8 taken12.7 faced
Santander11.2 taken14.8 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

First half / second half shots

Celta (6 games)

3.8 / 6.0

Santander (5 games)

6.0 / 5.2

Shots taken before and after half-time, per game, over the games in brackets. The bar is the share taken in the first half. This is Understat shot data with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, counted separately from the match shot totals above, so the two can differ. A match where the split could not be verified is left out rather than guessed.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.574.1%2.548.5%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.574.1%

Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Form & head-to-head

CeltaLLDDD
SantanderDLWLW

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

CeltaSantander
League position#16 of 20#10 of 20
Record W-D-L0-4-22-1-3
Current streakD3L1
Points per game0.671.17
Record, home vs away0-1-20-0-3
PPG, home vs away0.330.00
Goals scored per game0.501.83
Goals conceded per game1.002.67
Scored, home vs away0.671.33
Conceded, home vs away1.673.67
1st half goals per game0.331.60
2nd half goals per game0.170.20
Corners won per game3.35.4
Cards per game1.72.4
Fouls per game10.315.2
Red cards this season11
Shots per game9.811.2
Shots faced per game12.714.8
Shots on target per game2.84.0
1st half shots per game3.86.0
2nd half shots per game6.05.2
xG for per game0.901.52
xG against per game1.412.29
Over 2.5 rate

16.7%83.3%

BTTS rate

50.0%83.3%

Clean sheets

33.3%0.0%

Rates this season:CeltaSantander

League averages this season: 3.07 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 56% · BTTS in 56%. Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Ferrán JutglàCelta · key player
To score24.1%4.15
1+ on target53.9%1.86
2+ shots39.5%2.53
Shots/90 2.18SoT/90 1.24Goals/90 0.44
Pablo GarcíaSantander · key player
To score8.4%11.90
1+ on target29.3%3.41
2+ shots24.8%4.03
Shots/90 3.47SoT/90 1.26Goals/90 0.32
Borja IglesiasCelta · in form
To score27.5%3.64
1+ on target51.3%1.95
2+ shots37.0%2.70
Shots/90 2.17SoT/90 1.21Goals/90 0.54
Sergio CanalesSantander · in form
To score15.1%6.62
1+ on target56.4%1.77
2+ shots63.8%1.57
Shots/90 2.38SoT/90 0.91Goals/90 0.18
Iago AspasCelta · in form
To score19.9%5.03
1+ on target40.8%2.45
2+ shots33.3%3.00
Shots/90 2.52SoT/90 1.11Goals/90 0.47
André AlmeidaSantander · in form
To score0.0%·
1+ on target11.9%8.40
2+ shots8.4%11.90
Shots/90 0.83SoT/90 0.22Goals/90 0

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Celta win1.78
Draw4.02
Santander win5.30
Both teams to score2.04

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.09
Over 1.5 goals1.35
Over 2.5 goals2.06
Over 3.5 goals3.75
Celta most1.78
Santander most5.30

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.39
Over 8.5 corners1.66
Over 9.5 corners2.08
Over 10.5 corners2.76
Celta most1.81
Santander most2.93

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.27
Over 3.5 cards1.65
Over 4.5 cards2.39
Over 5.5 cards3.86
Celta most2.96
Santander most2.13

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.36
Over 7.5 SoT1.63
Over 8.5 SoT2.06
Over 9.5 SoT2.75
Celta most1.79
Santander most3.17

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.70
Over 24.5 shots2.17
Over 26.5 shots2.94
Over 28.5 shots4.24
Celta most1.64
Santander most3.03

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.26
Over 22.5 fouls1.47
Over 24.5 fouls1.83
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 58.8% Over 24.5 46.0% Over 26.5 34.0% Over 28.5 23.6%
Most: Celta 60.9% Most: Santander 33.0%
Celta Over 13.2 44.8% Santander Over 13.2 25.6%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 73.7% Over 7.5 61.5% Over 8.5 48.6% Over 9.5 36.4%
Most: Celta 56.0% Most: Santander 31.5%
Celta Over 4.2 51.3% Santander Over 4.2 33.6%

Cards

Over 2.5 78.7% Over 3.5 60.7% Over 4.5 41.9%
Most: Celta 33.8% Most: Santander 46.9%
Celta Over 1.8 57.1% Santander Over 1.8 66.0%

Celta: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Ferrán Jutglà 2.18 1.24 0.44 53.9% 39.5% 24.1%
Borja Iglesias 2.17 1.21 0.54 51.3% 37.0% 27.5%
Iago Aspas 2.52 1.11 0.47 40.8% 33.3% 19.9%
Williot Swedberg 1.78 0.85 0.27 33.5% 21.1% 12.1%
Pablo Durán 1.94 0.73 0.18 33.5% 29.5% 9.6%

Santander: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Pablo García 3.47 1.26 0.32 29.3% 24.8% 8.4%
Sergio Canales 2.38 0.91 0.18 56.4% 63.8% 15.1%
André Almeida 0.83 0.22 0 11.9% 8.4% 0.0%
Jorge Salinas 0.2 0.2 0 15.4% 1.2% 0.0%
Iván Martín 0.48 0.14 0 10.1% 5.3% 0.0%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Celta clean sheet 40.6%
Santander clean sheet 18.0%
Celta win to nil 32.7%
Santander win to nil 10.1%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 56.3% draw 24.9% away 18.9%
double_chance
1X 81.2% 12 75.1% X2 43.7%
dnb
home 74.9% away 25.1%
btts
yes 49.1% no 50.9%
clean_sheet
home 40.9% away 18.0%
win_to_nil
home 33.0% away 10.1%
winning_margin
home_by_1 24.5% home_by_2 17.5% home_by_3plus 14.2%
away_by_1 12.5% away_by_2 4.8% away_by_3plus 1.6%
correct_score
0-0 7.9% 0-1 6.0% 0-2 2.9%
0-3 0.9% 0-4 0.2% 0-5 0.0%
1-0 12.0% 1-1 11.8% 1-2 5.0%
1-3 1.5% 1-4 0.3% 1-5 0.1%
2-0 10.8% 2-1 9.7% 2-2 4.3%
2-3 1.3% 2-4 0.3% 2-5 0.1%
3-0 6.2% 3-1 5.5% 3-2 2.5%
3-3 0.7% 3-4 0.2% 3-5 0.0%
4-0 2.7% 4-1 2.4% 4-2 1.1%
4-3 0.3% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.9% 5-1 0.8% 5-2 0.4%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.9%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 0.0% p 12.0%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 92.1% under_0.5 7.9% over_1.5 74.1%
under_1.5 25.9% over_2.5 48.5% under_2.5 51.5%
over_3.5 26.7% under_3.5 73.3% over_4.5 12.4%
under_4.5 87.6% over_5.5 5.0% under_5.5 95.0%
odd_even
odd 48.6% even 51.4%
team_home
over_0.5 82.1% under_0.5 18.0% over_1.5 51.2%
under_1.5 48.8% over_2.5 24.8% under_2.5 75.3%
team_away
over_0.5 59.1% under_0.5 40.9% over_1.5 22.6%
under_1.5 77.5% over_2.5 6.2% under_2.5 93.8%
most
home 56.3% draw 24.9% away 18.9%
handicap
home_-2.5 14.2% away_+2.5 85.8% home_-1.5 31.7%
away_+1.5 68.3% home_-0.5 56.3% away_+0.5 43.7%
home_+0.5 81.1% away_-0.5 18.9% home_+1.5 93.7%
away_-1.5 6.4% home_+2.5 98.4% away_-2.5 1.6%
total_exact
exact_0 7.9% exact_1 18.0% exact_2 25.6%
exact_3 21.8% exact_4 14.2% exact_5 7.4%
exact_6 3.2% exact_7plus 1.8%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 30.4% draw 34.9% away 34.7%
total
over_0.5 80.4% under_0.5 19.7% over_1.5 48.4%
under_1.5 51.6% over_2.5 22.4% under_2.5 77.6%
btts
yes 30.9% no 69.1%
total_exact
exact_0 19.7% exact_1 32.0% exact_2 26.0%
exact_3 14.1% exact_4plus 8.3%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 44.5% draw 38.9% away 16.6%
total
over_0.5 71.9% under_0.5 28.1% over_1.5 36.3%
under_1.5 63.7% over_2.5 13.6% under_2.5 86.4%
btts
yes 19.4% no 80.6%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 26.7% H/D 3.0% H/A 0.7%
D/H 15.6% D/D 13.6% D/A 5.8%
A/H 4.0% A/D 7.7% A/A 23.0%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 72.1% under_7.5 27.9% over_8.5 60.3%
under_8.5 39.7% over_9.5 48.0% under_9.5 52.0%
over_10.5 36.3% under_10.5 63.7% over_11.5 26.1%
under_11.5 73.9% over_12.5 17.9% under_12.5 82.1%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 73.4% under_3.5 26.6% over_4.5 58.0%
under_4.5 42.0% over_5.5 42.6% under_5.5 57.4%
team_away
over_3.5 59.4% under_3.5 40.6% over_4.5 42.0%
under_4.5 58.0% over_5.5 27.2% under_5.5 72.8%
most
home 55.1% draw 10.8% away 34.1%
handicap
home_-3.5 24.1% away_+3.5 75.9% home_-1.5 44.0%
away_+1.5 56.0% home_-0.5 55.1% away_+0.5 44.9%
home_+0.5 65.9% away_-0.5 34.1% home_+1.5 75.5%
away_-1.5 24.5% home_+3.5 89.3% away_-3.5 10.7%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 58.8% under_22.5 41.2% over_24.5 46.0%
under_24.5 54.0% over_26.5 34.0% under_26.5 66.0%
over_28.5 23.6% under_28.5 76.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 70.2% under_10.5 29.8% over_12.5 53.3%
under_12.5 46.7% over_14.5 36.8% under_14.5 63.2%
team_away
over_10.5 51.3% under_10.5 48.7% over_12.5 33.2%
under_12.5 66.8% over_14.5 19.3% under_14.5 80.7%
most
home 60.9% draw 6.1% away 33.0%
handicap
home_-4.5 35.4% away_+4.5 64.6% home_-2.5 48.0%
away_+2.5 52.0% home_-0.5 60.9% away_+0.5 39.1%
home_+0.5 67.0% away_-0.5 33.0% home_+2.5 77.8%
away_-2.5 22.2% home_+4.5 86.3% away_-4.5 13.7%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 73.7% under_6.5 26.3% over_7.5 61.5%
under_7.5 38.5% over_8.5 48.6% under_8.5 51.4%
over_9.5 36.4% under_9.5 63.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 68.6% under_3.5 31.4% over_4.5 51.3%
under_4.5 48.7% over_5.5 35.1% under_5.5 64.9%
team_away
over_3.5 51.9% under_3.5 48.1% over_4.5 33.6%
under_4.5 66.4% over_5.5 19.6% under_5.5 80.4%
most
home 56.0% draw 12.5% away 31.6%
handicap
home_-2.5 30.7% away_+2.5 69.3% home_-0.5 56.0%
away_+0.5 44.0% home_+0.5 68.5% away_-0.5 31.6%
home_+2.5 87.2% away_-2.5 12.8%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 78.7% under_2.5 21.3% over_3.5 60.7%
under_3.5 39.3% over_4.5 41.9% under_4.5 58.1%
over_5.5 25.9% under_5.5 74.1%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 57.1% under_1.5 42.9% over_2.5 30.9%
under_2.5 69.1%
team_away
over_1.5 66.0% under_1.5 34.0% over_2.5 40.3%
under_2.5 59.7%
most
home 33.8% draw 19.4% away 46.9%
handicap
home_-1.5 18.2% away_+1.5 81.9% home_-0.5 33.8%
away_+0.5 66.2% home_+0.5 53.1% away_-0.5 46.9%
home_+1.5 71.5% away_-1.5 28.5%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 79.6% under_20.5 20.4% over_22.5 67.9%
under_22.5 32.1% over_24.5 54.7% under_24.5 45.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 74.3% under_9.5 25.7% over_11.5 55.4%
under_11.5 44.6% over_13.5 36.4% under_13.5 63.6%
team_away
over_9.5 79.9% under_9.5 20.1% over_11.5 62.8%
under_11.5 37.2% over_13.5 44.0% under_13.5 56.0%
most
home 41.2% draw 6.8% away 52.0%
handicap
home_-3.5 23.0% away_+3.5 77.0% home_-0.5 41.2%
away_+0.5 58.8% home_+2.5 61.5% away_-2.5 38.5%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 28.7% no 71.3%
home
yes 14.4% no 85.6%
away
yes 16.7% no 83.3%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0096 (55405 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Celta predictions · Santander predictions · La Liga

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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