La Liga
Malaga vs 
Villarreal Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 60.5%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 78.6% for over 2.5 to 25.7% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 41.7%. Between the two sides, Villarreal are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 42.8%, with a level count at 19.6%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 78.6% | 21.4% |
| 3.5 cards | 60.5% | 39.5% |
| 4.5 cards | 41.7% | 58.4% |
| 5.5 cards | 25.7% | 74.3% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
59.8%
33.6%
63.4%
37.4%
Card handicap
| Malaga line | Malaga | Villarreal |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 21.0% | 79.0% |
| -0.5 | 37.6% | 62.5% |
| +0.5 | 57.2% | 42.8% |
| +1.5 | 74.8% | 25.2% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 72.6% | 27.4% |
| 22.5 fouls | 59.3% | 40.7% |
| 24.5 fouls | 45.3% | 54.7% |
This season (2026/27)
2.2Malaga cards per game11.4Malaga fouls per game2.0Villarreal cards per game11.2Villarreal fouls per gameBookings are a lower-liquidity market, so calibration matters most here, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Malaga vs Villarreal. Slightly more cards are projected for Villarreal for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
60.5%Over 3.5 cards9.5%Any red card59.8%Malaga over 1.5 cards63.4%Villarreal over 1.5 cards59.3%Over 22.5 foulsSplit by side, Malaga over 1.5 cards sits at 59.8% and Villarreal at 63.4%. A red card for either side is rated at 9.5% (Malaga 5.8%, Villarreal 3.9%). This season Malaga have averaged 2.2 cards a game and Villarreal 2.0.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Malaga vs Villarreal?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 60.5% for Malaga vs Villarreal.
Will there be a red card in Malaga vs Villarreal?
The model rates a red card for either side at 9.5%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Malaga vs Villarreal?
The model rates Villarreal to pick up more cards at 42.8%, with a level count at 19.6%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 10,111 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 17 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More La Liga, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
