AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 27 Oct 2026

Premier League
Manchester CityMan CityWWWWL
Sat, 31 Oct 202631/1015:00UK14°C · Clear
BrightonBrightonWWWWL

Manchester City vs Brighton corners prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 9.5 cornersBoth teams combined52.3%
Under 9.5 cornersBoth teams combined47.7%

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 9.5 corners52.3%

Corners

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

The corners market rewards teams that camp in the final third, below are the model total-corner probabilities. The model edges Manchester City.

Total corners

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
7.5 corners 74.8% 25.2%
8.5 corners 63.9% 36.1%
9.5 corners 52.3% 47.7%
10.5 corners 40.9% 59.1%
11.5 corners 30.6% 69.4%
12.5 corners 22.0% 78.0%

Who wins the corner count

Manchester City
55.3%
Level
9.9%
Brighton
34.8%

Team corners lines

Manchester City

Over 3.5
74.3%
Over 4.5
60.1%
Over 5.5
45.7%

Brighton

Over 3.5
60.7%
Over 4.5
44.3%
Over 5.5
30.1%

Corner handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Manchester City's; Brighton gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Manchester City line Manchester City Brighton
-3.5 26.6% 73.5%
-1.5 45.2% 54.9%
-0.5 55.3% 44.7%
+0.5 65.2% 34.8%
Manchester CityManchester City

Corner trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Manchester City at home and Brighton away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

BrightonBrighton
Statistic
Manchester City
Brighton
Corners won per game at this venue
5.0
4.3

Corners conceded per game at this venue
4.0
5.0

First-half corners won per game
3.0
2.4

Second-half corners won per game
2.8
2.9

Matches with more corners than the opponent
75.0%
50.0%

Matches with corner data
8
8

Bar scales · Corners per game: 0–10 · Recorded rate (%): 0–100. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Corners accuracy

How our Corners calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

54.0%Best Corners call, hit rate
0.0095Calibration error
50,938Matches graded

In 24,028 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Corners actually happened 54.2% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Corners calls

Our most recent Corners calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 55.9%✓ 52.1%✓ 53.5%✓ 50.6%✓ 53.9%✗ 51.1%✗ 50.7%✗ 58.3%✓ 55.7%✗ 59.5%
5 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Under 9.5 55.9%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Over 9.5 52.1%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Under 9.5 53.5%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Under 9.5 50.6%Hit
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Under 9.5 53.9%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Over 9.5 corners at 52.3%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Line by line, the read runs from 74.8% for over 7.5 to 22.0% for over 12.5, with over 9.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 52.3%. Between the two sides, Manchester City are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 55.3%, with a level count at 9.9%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.

In-depth analysis

Split by side, Manchester City over 4.5 corners sits at 60.1% and Brighton at 44.3%. This season Manchester City have averaged 5.8 corners won a game and Brighton 5.3.

52.3%Over 9.5 corners
55.3%Most corners: Manchester City
60.1%Manchester City over 4.5 corners
44.3%Brighton over 4.5 corners
50.0%Odd corner total

We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 52.3% on Corners. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Territory ReaderManchester City are the pick to win the corner count at 55.3%, the count usually goes the way of the side doing the attacking.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 9.5 corners: over sits at 52.3%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
The RealistOver 9.5 is a coin-flip in the model, the honest read is low conviction, no strong lean.
Manchester CityManchester City

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

BrightonBrighton
Statistic
Manchester City
Brighton
corners won per game
5.8
5.3

corners conceded per game
4.1
4.9

Bar scales · Corners per game: 0–10. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many corners in Manchester City vs Brighton?
The model rates over 9.5 total corners at 52.3% for Manchester City vs Brighton.
Which team will win the corner count in Manchester City vs Brighton?
The model rates Manchester City to win the corner count at 55.3%, with a level count at 9.9%.
How many corners do Manchester City and Brighton average this season?
Manchester City have won 5.8 corners a game this season and Brighton 5.3.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Corner predictions today

Related

Premier LeagueManchester City fixtures and statsBrighton fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.