Eredivisie
Feyenoord vs 
Utrecht Over / Under 2.5 Goals
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 2.5 goals at 69.4%, its strongest read on the Over / Under 2.5 Goals market. The goals picture is built on form: Feyenoord have averaged 3.8 scored and 1.4 conceded, Utrecht 2.0 and 3.4 over their recent games. That fits an open goals environment: 69.4% for over 2.5 and 87.7% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 3.4 goals a game. Feyenoord have gone over 2.5 in 5 of their last 5, Utrecht in 5 of 5. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Total goals, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 96.8% | 3.2% |
| 1.5 goals | 87.7% | 12.3% |
| 2.5 goals | 69.4% | 30.6% |
| 3.5 goals | 48.1% | 51.9% |
| 4.5 goals | 29.1% | 70.9% |
| 5.5 goals | 15.4% | 84.6% |
Team goal lines
90.5%
68.1%
41.7%
70.9%
34.9%
12.8%
First-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 75.7% | 24.3% |
| 1.5 goals | 41.3% | 58.7% |
| 2.5 goals | 17.0% | 83.0% |
Second-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 89.1% | 10.9% |
| 1.5 goals | 64.9% | 35.1% |
| 2.5 goals | 38.1% | 61.9% |
This season (2026/27)
3.9Feyenoord goals scored per game1.0Feyenoord goals conceded per game85.7%Feyenoord Over 2.5 rate1.7Feyenoord 1st-half goals per game1.9Utrecht goals scored per game2.9Utrecht goals conceded per game100.0%Utrecht Over 2.5 rate0.5Utrecht 1st-half goals per gameGoals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
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In-depth analysis
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. The track record is public, misses included.
64.5%Both Teams to Score69.4%Over 2.5 goalsOn the goals side, the model sees 69.4% for three or more goals and 87.7% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. With Feyenoord favoured at 61.8%, they may control possession and keep things tighter.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Feyenoord to win. See the full prediction →
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Feyenoord 4 · 0 draws · Utrecht 1 · 3.4 goals/game.
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.
FAQ
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Feyenoord vs Utrecht?
Our model rates Over 2.5 goals at 69.4% for Feyenoord vs Utrecht.
Will there be a first-half goal in Feyenoord vs Utrecht?
The model rates at least one goal before half-time at 75.7%.
How often have Feyenoord gone over 2.5 recently?
Feyenoord have gone over 2.5 in 5 of their last 5, Utrecht in 5 of 5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals accuracy
How our Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 6,518 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Over / Under 2.5 Goals actually happened 62.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 18 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls
The model’s most recent graded Over / Under 2.5 Goals predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Eredivisie, Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
