EredivisieADO Den Haag vs 
Cambuur Over / Under 2.5 Goals
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 2.5 goals at 61.5%, its strongest read on the Over / Under 2.5 Goals market. That fits an open goals environment: 61.5% for over 2.5 and 83.1% for at least two goals. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Total goals, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 95.3% | 4.7% |
| 1.5 goals | 83.1% | 16.9% |
| 2.5 goals | 61.5% | 38.5% |
| 3.5 goals | 39.2% | 60.8% |
| 4.5 goals | 21.5% | 78.5% |
| 5.5 goals | 10.3% | 89.7% |
Team goal lines
81.2%
49.8%
23.6%
77.8%
44.4%
19.2%
First-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 83.7% | 16.4% |
| 1.5 goals | 54.0% | 46.0% |
| 2.5 goals | 27.2% | 72.8% |
Second-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 87.7% | 12.3% |
| 1.5 goals | 61.9% | 38.1% |
| 2.5 goals | 34.9% | 65.1% |
This season (2026/27)
1.7Cambuur goals scored per game2.6Cambuur goals conceded per game100.0%Cambuur Over 2.5 rate0.3Cambuur 1st-half goals per gameGoals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
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In-depth analysis
63.7%Both Teams to Score61.5%Over 2.5 goalsLooking at totals, the model sees 61.5% for three or more goals and 83.1% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. Given ADO Den Haag favoured at 41.4%, a close contest often produces chances at both ends.
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans ADO Den Haag to win. See the full prediction →
Form & head-to-head
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.
FAQ
Will there be over 2.5 goals in ADO Den Haag vs Cambuur?
Our model rates Over 2.5 goals at 61.5% for ADO Den Haag vs Cambuur.
Will there be a first-half goal in ADO Den Haag vs Cambuur?
The model rates at least one goal before half-time at 83.7%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals accuracy
How our Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 6,517 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Over / Under 2.5 Goals actually happened 62.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 17 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls
The model’s most recent graded Over / Under 2.5 Goals predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Eredivisie, Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
