Eredivisie
Sparta Rotterdam vs 
Heerenveen Over / Under 2.5 Goals
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 2.5 goals at 57.9%, its strongest read on the Over / Under 2.5 Goals market. Recent output points the same way: Sparta Rotterdam have averaged 2.0 scored and 2.4 conceded, Heerenveen 1.2 and 1.8 over their recent games. That fits an open goals environment: 57.9% for over 2.5 and 80.8% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 3.0 goals a game. Sparta Rotterdam have gone over 2.5 in 5 of their last 5, Heerenveen in 3 of 5. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Total goals, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 94.5% | 5.5% |
| 1.5 goals | 80.8% | 19.2% |
| 2.5 goals | 57.9% | 42.1% |
| 3.5 goals | 35.5% | 64.5% |
| 4.5 goals | 18.7% | 81.3% |
| 5.5 goals | 8.5% | 91.5% |
Team goal lines
76.3%
42.2%
17.6%
79.2%
46.6%
20.9%
First-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 67.1% | 32.9% |
| 1.5 goals | 30.6% | 69.4% |
| 2.5 goals | 10.2% | 89.8% |
Second-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 83.5% | 16.6% |
| 1.5 goals | 53.7% | 46.3% |
| 2.5 goals | 26.9% | 73.1% |
This season (2026/27)
1.7Sparta Rotterdam goals scored per game2.2Sparta Rotterdam goals conceded per game83.3%Sparta Rotterdam Over 2.5 rate0.7Sparta Rotterdam 1st-half goals per game1.2Heerenveen goals scored per game1.5Heerenveen goals conceded per game50.0%Heerenveen Over 2.5 rate0.5Heerenveen 1st-half goals per gameGoals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
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In-depth analysis
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
61.0%Both Teams to Score57.9%Over 2.5 goalsOn the goals side, the model sees 57.9% for three or more goals and 80.8% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. With Heerenveen favoured at 40.2%, neither side dominating can mean an end-to-end match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Heerenveen to win. See the full prediction →
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Sparta Rotterdam 2 · 0 draws · Heerenveen 3 · 3.0 goals/game.
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.
FAQ
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Sparta Rotterdam vs Heerenveen?
Our model rates Over 2.5 goals at 57.9% for Sparta Rotterdam vs Heerenveen.
Will there be a first-half goal in Sparta Rotterdam vs Heerenveen?
The model rates at least one goal before half-time at 67.1%.
How often have Sparta Rotterdam gone over 2.5 recently?
Sparta Rotterdam have gone over 2.5 in 5 of their last 5, Heerenveen in 3 of 5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals accuracy
How our Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 18,270 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Over / Under 2.5 Goals actually happened 54.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 19 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls
The model’s most recent graded Over / Under 2.5 Goals predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Eredivisie, Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
