Eredivisie
Willem II vs 
For Sittard Over / Under 2.5 Goals
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 2.5 goals at 63.6%, its strongest read on the Over / Under 2.5 Goals market. The goals picture is built on form: Willem II have averaged 1.0 scored and 2.8 conceded, For Sittard 2.0 and 2.4 over their recent games. That fits an open goals environment: 63.6% for over 2.5 and 84.4% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 1.4 goals a game. Willem II have gone over 2.5 in 4 of their last 5, For Sittard in 4 of 5. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Total goals, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 95.7% | 4.3% |
| 1.5 goals | 84.4% | 15.7% |
| 2.5 goals | 63.6% | 36.4% |
| 3.5 goals | 41.4% | 58.6% |
| 4.5 goals | 23.3% | 76.7% |
| 5.5 goals | 11.4% | 88.6% |
Team goal lines
79.3%
46.7%
21.1%
81.7%
50.7%
24.3%
First-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 73.9% | 26.1% |
| 1.5 goals | 38.8% | 61.2% |
| 2.5 goals | 15.3% | 84.7% |
Second-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 85.7% | 14.3% |
| 1.5 goals | 57.8% | 42.2% |
| 2.5 goals | 30.8% | 69.2% |
This season (2026/27)
1.0Willem II goals scored per game3.2Willem II goals conceded per game83.3%Willem II Over 2.5 rate0.2Willem II 1st-half goals per game2.0For Sittard goals scored per game2.3For Sittard goals conceded per game83.3%For Sittard Over 2.5 rate1.2For Sittard 1st-half goals per gameGoals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
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In-depth analysis
65.3%Both Teams to Score63.6%Over 2.5 goalsLooking at totals, the model sees 63.6% for three or more goals and 84.4% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. Given For Sittard favoured at 40.6%, a competitive game tends to open up.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans For Sittard to win. See the full prediction →
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Willem II 1 · 2 draws · For Sittard 2 · 1.4 goals/game.
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.
FAQ
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Willem II vs For Sittard?
Our model rates Over 2.5 goals at 63.6% for Willem II vs For Sittard.
Will there be a first-half goal in Willem II vs For Sittard?
The model rates at least one goal before half-time at 73.9%.
How often have Willem II gone over 2.5 recently?
Willem II have gone over 2.5 in 4 of their last 5, For Sittard in 4 of 5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals accuracy
How our Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 6,517 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Over / Under 2.5 Goals actually happened 62.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 17 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls
The model’s most recent graded Over / Under 2.5 Goals predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Eredivisie, Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
