AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 2 Nov 2026

La Liga
VillarrealVillarrealWLDWL
Sun, 8 Nov 20268/1117:30UK19°C · Rain
GetafeGetafeWLDLW

Villarreal vs Getafe cards prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined71.5%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined28.5%

Model read

A clear lean on the model's numbers.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Strong

Over 3.5 cards71.5%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Villarreal vs Getafe. The model leans toward Getafe for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 86.0% 14.0%
3.5 cards 71.5% 28.5%
4.5 cards 54.0% 46.0%
5.5 cards 37.0% 63.0%

Who picks up more cards

Villarreal
29.7%
Level
17.4%
Getafe
52.9%

Team cards lines

Villarreal

Over 1.5
61.6%
Over 2.5
35.3%

Getafe

Over 1.5
75.9%
Over 2.5
52.5%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Villarreal's; Getafe gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Villarreal line Villarreal Getafe
-1.5 16.1% 83.9%
-0.5 29.7% 70.3%
+0.5 47.1% 52.9%
+1.5 64.8% 35.2%

Red card

Any red card29.0%
Villarreal red card9.3%
Getafe red card21.7%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 83.4% 16.7%
22.5 fouls 72.9% 27.1%
24.5 fouls 60.4% 39.7%

Recent referees

The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.

Team Referee Games Cards/g Team cards/g
Villarreal Isidro Diaz de Mera Escuderos 2 6.0 1.5
Getafe Jon Ander Gonzalez Esteban 2 9.5 5.5

Swipe to see all referee stats →

VillarrealVillarreal

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Villarreal at home and Getafe away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

GetafeGetafe
Statistic
Villarreal
Getafe
Yellow cards per game
1.8
3.8

First-half yellow cards per game
0.1
1.5

Second-half yellow cards per game
1.7
2.3

Matches with card data
5
4

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
51,078Matches graded

In 8,539 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Cards actually happened 73.2% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 2 Nov 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 58.7%✓ 56.2%✓ 59.8%✓ 75.9%✗ 61.0%✓ 62.7%✓ 62.4%✗ 57.2%✗ 52.3%✓ 58.0%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Liverpool vs Arsenal2026-11-01Under 3.5 58.7%Miss
Union Berlin vs FC Koln2026-11-01Over 3.5 56.2%Hit
Ein Frankfurt vs Hamburg2026-11-01Over 3.5 59.8%Hit
Getafe vs Sevilla2026-11-01Over 3.5 75.9%Hit
Santander vs Real Madrid2026-11-01Over 3.5 61.0%Miss
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 71.5%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 86.0% for over 2.5 to 37.0% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 54.0%. Head to head on cards, Getafe are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 52.9%, with a level count at 17.4%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.

In-depth analysis

By team, Villarreal over 1.5 cards sits at 61.6% and Getafe at 75.9%. A red card for either side is rated at 29.0% (Villarreal 9.3%, Getafe 21.7%). Villarreal’s most frequent referee this season, Isidro Diaz de Mera Escuderos, has averaged 6.0 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff.

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.

71.5%Over 3.5 cards
29.0%Any red card
52.9%Most cards: Getafe
61.6%Villarreal over 1.5 cards
75.9%Getafe over 1.5 cards
72.9%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 71.5% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Referee WatcherIsidro Diaz de Mera Escuderos, Villarreal’s most frequent referee this season, averages 6.0 cards a game. These historical averages do not identify this match’s referee.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 29.0%, high enough to matter for the team lines.
The DisciplinarianGetafe are the pick to collect more cards at 52.9%, bookings follow the side defending under pressure.
VillarrealVillarreal

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

GetafeGetafe
Statistic
Villarreal
Getafe
fouls per game
11.1
14.0

Bar scales · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Villarreal vs Getafe?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 71.5% for Villarreal vs Getafe.
Will there be a red card in Villarreal vs Getafe?
The model rates a red card for either side at 29.0%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Villarreal vs Getafe?
The model rates Getafe to pick up more cards at 52.9%, with a level count at 17.4%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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La LigaVillarreal fixtures and statsGetafe fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.