AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 31 Oct 2026

La Liga
SevillaSevillaWLDLW
Fri, 6 Nov 20266/1120:00UK20°C · Cloudy
AlavesAlavesLDLLD

Sevilla vs Alaves cards prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined67.1%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined32.9%

Model read

A moderate lean, nothing emphatic.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Moderate

Over 3.5 cards67.1%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Sevilla vs Alaves. Slightly more cards are projected for Alaves for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 83.2% 16.8%
3.5 cards 67.1% 32.9%
4.5 cards 48.8% 51.2%
5.5 cards 32.0% 68.0%

Who picks up more cards

Sevilla
40.6%
Level
18.8%
Alaves
40.6%

Team cards lines

Sevilla

Over 1.5
66.3%
Over 2.5
40.5%

Alaves

Over 1.5
66.3%
Over 2.5
40.5%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Sevilla's; Alaves gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Sevilla line Sevilla Alaves
-1.5 24.0% 76.0%
-0.5 40.6% 59.4%
+0.5 59.4% 40.6%
+1.5 76.0% 24.0%

Red card

Any red card25.6%
Sevilla red card17.6%
Alaves red card9.8%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 85.9% 14.1%
22.5 fouls 76.4% 23.7%
24.5 fouls 64.5% 35.5%

Recent referees

The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.

Team Referee Games Cards/g Team cards/g
Sevilla Mateo Busquets Ferrer 2 3.5 1.5
Alaves José Luis Munuera Montero 2 2.5 1.5

Swipe to see all referee stats →

SevillaSevilla

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Sevilla at home and Alaves away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

AlavesAlaves
Statistic
Sevilla
Alaves
Yellow cards per game
2.9
1.8

First-half yellow cards per game
1.0
0.9

Second-half yellow cards per game
1.8
0.9

Matches with card data
5
4

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,950Matches graded

In 10,240 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.7% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 31 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✓ 50.6%✗ 50.7%✗ 51.1%✓ 52.0%✓ 54.1%✓ 50.1%✓ 54.7%✗ 63.6%✗ 51.1%✗ 52.8%
5 of 10 recent calls hit.
Frosinone vs Lecce2026-10-29Under 3.5 50.6%Hit
Fiorentina vs Atalanta2026-10-29Under 3.5 50.7%Miss
Milan vs Bologna2026-10-28Over 3.5 51.1%Miss
Parma vs Udinese2026-10-28Under 3.5 52.0%Hit
Venezia vs Inter2026-10-28Under 3.5 54.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 67.1%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 83.2% for over 2.5 to 32.0% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 48.8%. On the card count, Alaves are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 40.6%, with a level count at 18.8%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.

In-depth analysis

For the team lines, Sevilla over 1.5 cards sits at 66.3% and Alaves at 66.3%. A red card for either side is rated at 25.6% (Sevilla 17.6%, Alaves 9.8%). Sevilla’s most frequent referee this season, Mateo Busquets Ferrer, has averaged 3.5 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff.

Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.

67.1%Over 3.5 cards
25.6%Any red card
40.6%Most cards: Alaves
66.3%Sevilla over 1.5 cards
66.3%Alaves over 1.5 cards
76.4%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 67.1% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Referee WatcherMateo Busquets Ferrer, Sevilla’s most frequent referee this season, averages 3.5 cards a game. These historical averages do not identify this match’s referee.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 25.6%, a live risk in this one, and a red changes every card line at once.
The DisciplinarianAlaves are the pick to collect more cards at 40.6%, bookings follow the side defending under pressure.
SevillaSevilla

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

AlavesAlaves
Statistic
Sevilla
Alaves
fouls per game
14.7
13.7

Bar scales · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Sevilla vs Alaves?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 67.1% for Sevilla vs Alaves.
Will there be a red card in Sevilla vs Alaves?
The model rates a red card for either side at 25.6%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Sevilla vs Alaves?
The model rates Alaves to pick up more cards at 40.6%, with a level count at 18.8%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.