AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

Ligue 1
ToulouseToulouseLDWDW
Full time0-0Sun, 25 Oct 202625/1016:15UK17°C · Rain
TroyesTroyesLLLLL

Toulouse 0-0 Troyes cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined53.2%
Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined46.8%

Result

Toulouse0-0Troyes
8 yellow cardsToulouse 6, Troyes 2
0 red cardsToulouse 0, Troyes 0
Under 3.5No

We called Under 3.5 at 53.2% and it missed (8 in the match). We called No at 91.8% and it landed (0 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards46.8%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

Geoffrey Kubler

Recorded match referee.

Geoffrey Kubler in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 22 6
Goals 2.23 2.67
Yellow cards 4.64 4.33
Red cards 0.27 0.00
Corners 9.4 10.7
Fouls 26.6 27.3
Both teams scored 46% 50%
Over 2.5 goals 46% 67%
Home wins 36% 33%
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
25 Oct 2026 Toulouse vs Troyes 0-0 0 No 8 0 6 33
19 Oct 2026 Rodez vs MontpellierLigue 2 0-3 3 No 2 0 12 22
19 Sep 2026 Le Mans vs Lorient 2-1 3 Yes 6 0 4 30
6 Sep 2026 Angers vs Rennes 1-2 3 Yes 2 0 18 25
29 Aug 2026 Red Star vs ReimsLigue 2 1-4 5 Yes 6 0 9 27
14 Aug 2026 Annecy vs RodezLigue 2 2-0 2 No 2 0 15 27
2 May 2026 Montpellier vs ClermontLigue 2 1-2 3 Yes 4 1 13 34
18 Apr 2026 Reims vs Red StarLigue 2 3-2 5 Yes 7 0 11 32
20 Mar 2026 Pau FC vs MontpellierLigue 2 0-0 0 No 3 1 7 24
6 Mar 2026 Laval vs GuingampLigue 2 2-2 4 Yes 3 0 13 26

Geoffrey Kubler referee stats

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Toulouse vs Troyes. The model leans toward Troyes for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 68.3% 31.7%
3.5 cards 46.8% 53.2%
4.5 cards 27.8% 72.2%
5.5 cards 14.5% 85.5%

Who picks up more cards

Toulouse
36.5%
Level
22.2%
Troyes
41.3%

Team cards lines

Toulouse

Over 1.5
50.7%
Over 2.5
24.3%

Troyes

Over 1.5
54.3%
Over 2.5
27.5%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Toulouse's; Troyes gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Toulouse line Toulouse Troyes
-1.5 18.4% 81.6%
-0.5 36.5% 63.5%
+0.5 58.7% 41.3%
+1.5 78.0% 22.0%

Red card

Any red card8.2%
Toulouse red card5.1%
Troyes red card3.2%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 78.3% 21.7%
22.5 fouls 65.9% 34.1%
24.5 fouls 52.1% 47.9%

Recent referees

The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.

Team Referee Games Cards/g Team cards/g
Troyes Azzedine Souifi 2 2.5 1.0

Swipe to see all referee stats →

ToulouseToulouse

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Toulouse at home and Troyes away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

TroyesTroyes
Statistic
Toulouse
Troyes
Yellow cards per game
1.6
·

First-half yellow cards per game
0.8
·

Second-half yellow cards per game
0.8
·

Matches with card data
1
2

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 10,293 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.5% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 46.8%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 68.3% for over 2.5 to 14.5% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 46.8%. On the card count, Troyes are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 41.3%, with a level count at 22.2%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.

In-depth analysis

For the team lines, Toulouse over 1.5 cards sits at 50.7% and Troyes at 54.3%. A red card for either side is rated at 8.2% (Toulouse 5.1%, Troyes 3.2%). Troyes’s most frequent referee this season, Azzedine Souifi, has averaged 2.5 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff.

We publish the model, not a sure thing. We score every call against the result after the match.

46.8%Over 3.5 cards
8.2%Any red card
41.3%Most cards: Troyes
50.7%Toulouse over 1.5 cards
54.3%Troyes over 1.5 cards
65.9%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 46.8% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Referee WatcherAzzedine Souifi, Troyes’s most frequent referee this season, averages 2.5 cards a game. These historical averages do not identify this match’s referee.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 8.2%, a low-probability event, but one that reshapes every line when it lands.
The DisciplinarianTroyes are the pick to collect more cards at 41.3%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
ToulouseToulouse

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

TroyesTroyes
Statistic
Toulouse
Troyes
fouls per game
16.8
12.0

Bar scales · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Toulouse vs Troyes?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 46.8% for Toulouse vs Troyes.
Will there be a red card in Toulouse vs Troyes?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 8.2%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Toulouse vs Troyes?
Before kickoff, the model rated Troyes to pick up more cards at 41.3%, with a level count at 22.2%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Ligue 1Toulouse fixtures and statsTroyes fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.