AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

Ligue 1
ToulouseToulouseLDWDW
Full time0-0Sun, 25 Oct 202625/1016:15UK17°C · Rain
TroyesTroyesLLLLL

Toulouse 0-0 Troyes corners: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Under 9.5 cornersBoth teams combined52.5%
Over 9.5 cornersBoth teams combined47.5%

Result

Toulouse0-0Troyes
6 cornersToulouse 4, Troyes 2
Under 9.5

We called Under 9.5 at 52.5% and it landed (6 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 9.5 corners47.5%

Corners

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

The corners market rewards teams that camp in the final third, below are the model total-corner probabilities. More corners are projected for Toulouse.

Total corners

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
7.5 corners 71.5% 28.5%
8.5 corners 59.7% 40.3%
9.5 corners 47.5% 52.5%
10.5 corners 36.0% 64.0%
11.5 corners 26.0% 74.0%
12.5 corners 17.9% 82.1%

Who wins the corner count

Toulouse
49.8%
Level
10.9%
Troyes
39.3%

Team corners lines

Toulouse

Over 3.5
69.7%
Over 4.5
53.7%
Over 5.5
38.5%

Troyes

Over 3.5
62.7%
Over 4.5
45.8%
Over 5.5
30.9%

Corner handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Toulouse's; Troyes gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Toulouse line Toulouse Troyes
-1.5 38.9% 61.1%
-0.5 49.8% 50.2%
+0.5 60.7% 39.3%
+1.5 70.8% 29.2%
ToulouseToulouse

Corner trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Toulouse at home and Troyes away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

TroyesTroyes
Statistic
Toulouse
Troyes
Corners won per game at this venue
6.0
7.0

Corners conceded per game at this venue
4.7
2.0

Matches with more corners than the opponent
40.0%
100.0%

Matches with corner data
5
5

Bar scales · Corners per game: 0–10 · Recorded rate (%): 0–100. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Corners accuracy

How our Corners calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

54.0%Best Corners call, hit rate
0.0095Calibration error
50,938Matches graded

In 21,932 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Corners actually happened 47.7% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Corners calls

Our most recent Corners calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 55.9%✓ 52.1%✓ 53.5%✓ 50.6%✓ 53.9%✗ 51.1%✗ 50.7%✗ 58.3%✓ 55.7%✗ 59.5%
5 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Under 9.5 55.9%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Over 9.5 52.1%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Under 9.5 53.5%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Under 9.5 50.6%Hit
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Under 9.5 53.9%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 9.5 corners at 47.5%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Line by line, the read runs from 71.5% for over 7.5 to 17.9% for over 12.5, with over 9.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 47.5%. Head to head on corners, Toulouse are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 49.8%, with a level count at 10.9%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.

In-depth analysis

For the team lines, Toulouse over 4.5 corners sits at 53.7% and Troyes at 45.8%. This season Toulouse have averaged 4.6 corners won a game and Troyes 7.6.

We publish the model, not a sure thing. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.

47.5%Over 9.5 corners
49.8%Most corners: Toulouse
53.7%Toulouse over 4.5 corners
45.8%Troyes over 4.5 corners
50.0%Odd corner total

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 47.5% on Corners. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Territory ReaderToulouse are the pick to win the corner count at 49.8%, corners follow pressure, and pressure follows the side with the ball in the final third.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 9.5 corners: over sits at 47.5%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
The RealistOver 9.5 is a coin-flip in the model, the honest read is low conviction, no strong lean.
ToulouseToulouse

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

TroyesTroyes
Statistic
Toulouse
Troyes
corners won per game
4.6
7.6

corners conceded per game
5.0
1.6

Bar scales · Corners per game: 0–10. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many corners in Toulouse vs Troyes?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 9.5 total corners at 47.5% for Toulouse vs Troyes.
Which team will win the corner count in Toulouse vs Troyes?
Before kickoff, the model rated Toulouse to win the corner count at 49.8%, with a level count at 10.9%.
How many corners do Toulouse and Troyes average this season?
Toulouse have won 4.6 corners a game this season and Troyes 7.6.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Corner predictions today

Related

Ligue 1Toulouse fixtures and statsTroyes fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.