Primeira Liga
Guimaraes vs 
Moreirense Over / Under 2.5 Goals
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Under 2.5 goals at 54.2%, its strongest read on the Over / Under 2.5 Goals market. It is driven by both attacks and defences: Guimaraes have averaged 0.8 scored and 1.2 conceded, Moreirense 1.0 and 2.2 over their recent games. That fits a balanced goals environment: 45.8% for over 2.5 and 72.0% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 1.8 goals a game. Guimaraes have gone over 2.5 in 2 of their last 5, Moreirense in 4 of 5. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Total goals, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 91.2% | 8.8% |
| 1.5 goals | 72.0% | 28.0% |
| 2.5 goals | 45.8% | 54.2% |
| 3.5 goals | 24.4% | 75.6% |
| 4.5 goals | 11.0% | 89.0% |
| 5.5 goals | 4.3% | 95.7% |
Team goal lines
77.1%
43.4%
18.6%
64.3%
27.6%
8.6%
First-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 65.3% | 34.7% |
| 1.5 goals | 28.6% | 71.4% |
| 2.5 goals | 9.2% | 90.8% |
Second-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 75.8% | 24.2% |
| 1.5 goals | 41.4% | 58.6% |
| 2.5 goals | 17.1% | 82.9% |
This season (2026/27)
0.7Guimaraes goals scored per game1.2Guimaraes goals conceded per game33.3%Guimaraes Over 2.5 rate0.2Guimaraes 1st-half goals per game1.3Moreirense goals scored per game2.3Moreirense goals conceded per game87.5%Moreirense Over 2.5 rate0.8Moreirense 1st-half goals per gameGoals distribution
How likely each total number of goals is, according to the model. Every goals market on this page is built from these bars. The 5+ bar covers every result with five goals or more.
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1
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5+
In-depth analysis
Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. The track record is public, misses included.
50.2%Both Teams to Score45.8%Over 2.5 goalsOn the goals side, the model sees 45.8% for three or more goals and 72.0% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. With Guimaraes favoured at 46.8%, a competitive game tends to open up.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Guimaraes to win. See the full prediction →
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Guimaraes 3 · 1 draws · Moreirense 1 · 1.8 goals/game.
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.
FAQ
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Guimaraes vs Moreirense?
Our model rates Over 2.5 goals at 45.8% for Guimaraes vs Moreirense.
Will there be a first-half goal in Guimaraes vs Moreirense?
The model rates at least one goal before half-time at 65.3%.
How often have Guimaraes gone over 2.5 recently?
Guimaraes have gone over 2.5 in 2 of their last 5, Moreirense in 4 of 5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals accuracy
How our Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 20,722 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Over / Under 2.5 Goals actually happened 47.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 20 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls
Our most recent Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Primeira Liga, Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
