Primeira Liga
Gil Vicente vs 
Maritimo Over / Under 2.5 Goals
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Under 2.5 goals at 54.4%, its strongest read on the Over / Under 2.5 Goals market. Recent output points the same way: Gil Vicente have averaged 0.8 scored and 0.8 conceded, Maritimo 1.2 and 2.2 over their recent games. That fits a balanced goals environment: 45.6% for over 2.5 and 71.8% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 2.2 goals a game. Gil Vicente have gone over 2.5 in 1 of their last 5, Maritimo in 5 of 5. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Total goals, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 91.2% | 8.8% |
| 1.5 goals | 71.8% | 28.2% |
| 2.5 goals | 45.6% | 54.4% |
| 3.5 goals | 24.2% | 75.8% |
| 4.5 goals | 10.9% | 89.1% |
| 5.5 goals | 4.2% | 95.8% |
Team goal lines
80.1%
47.9%
22.0%
58.8%
22.3%
6.1%
First-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 73.0% | 27.0% |
| 1.5 goals | 37.6% | 62.4% |
| 2.5 goals | 14.5% | 85.5% |
Second-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 73.1% | 26.9% |
| 1.5 goals | 37.8% | 62.2% |
| 2.5 goals | 14.6% | 85.4% |
This season (2026/27)
0.8Gil Vicente goals scored per game1.2Gil Vicente goals conceded per game33.3%Gil Vicente Over 2.5 rate0.6Gil Vicente 1st-half goals per game1.2Maritimo goals scored per game1.8Maritimo goals conceded per game83.3%Maritimo Over 2.5 rate0.3Maritimo 1st-half goals per gameGoals distribution
How likely each total number of goals is, according to the model. Every goals market on this page is built from these bars. The 5+ bar covers every result with five goals or more.
0
1
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5+
In-depth analysis
Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.
47.6%Both Teams to Score45.6%Over 2.5 goalsLooking at totals, the model sees 45.6% for three or more goals and 71.8% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. Given Gil Vicente favoured at 53.9%, a close contest often produces chances at both ends.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Gil Vicente to win. See the full prediction →
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Gil Vicente 4 · 1 draws · Maritimo 0 · 2.2 goals/game.
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.
FAQ
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Gil Vicente vs Maritimo?
Our model rates Over 2.5 goals at 45.6% for Gil Vicente vs Maritimo.
Will there be a first-half goal in Gil Vicente vs Maritimo?
The model rates at least one goal before half-time at 73.0%.
How often have Gil Vicente gone over 2.5 recently?
Gil Vicente have gone over 2.5 in 1 of their last 5, Maritimo in 5 of 5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals accuracy
How our Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 20,722 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Over / Under 2.5 Goals actually happened 47.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 19 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls
Our most recent Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Primeira Liga, Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
