Primeira Liga
Estrela vs 
Academico Viseu Over / Under 2.5 Goals
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 2.5 goals at 55.1%, its strongest read on the Over / Under 2.5 Goals market. It is driven by both attacks and defences: Estrela have averaged 2.4 scored and 2.0 conceded, Academico Viseu 1.0 and 1.4 over their recent games. That fits an open goals environment: 55.1% for over 2.5 and 78.9% for at least two goals. Estrela have gone over 2.5 in 5 of their last 5, Academico Viseu in 3 of 5. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Total goals, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 93.9% | 6.2% |
| 1.5 goals | 78.9% | 21.2% |
| 2.5 goals | 55.1% | 45.0% |
| 3.5 goals | 32.7% | 67.3% |
| 4.5 goals | 16.6% | 83.4% |
| 5.5 goals | 7.3% | 92.7% |
Team goal lines
81.9%
51.0%
24.6%
69.1%
32.8%
11.5%
First-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 71.0% | 29.0% |
| 1.5 goals | 35.0% | 65.0% |
| 2.5 goals | 12.8% | 87.2% |
Second-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 81.1% | 18.9% |
| 1.5 goals | 49.7% | 50.3% |
| 2.5 goals | 23.4% | 76.6% |
This season (2026/27)
2.3Estrela goals scored per game2.0Estrela goals conceded per game100.0%Estrela Over 2.5 rate0.5Estrela 1st-half goals per game1.3Academico Viseu goals scored per game1.4Academico Viseu goals conceded per game71.4%Academico Viseu Over 2.5 rate0.5Academico Viseu 1st-half goals per gameGoals distribution
How likely each total number of goals is, according to the model. Every goals market on this page is built from these bars. The 5+ bar covers every result with five goals or more.
0
1
2
3
4
5+
In-depth analysis
57.2%Both Teams to Score55.1%Over 2.5 goalsFor the goal environment, the model sees 55.1% for three or more goals and 78.9% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. With Estrela favoured at 49.4%, a close contest often produces chances at both ends.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Estrela to win. See the full prediction →
Form & head-to-head
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.
FAQ
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Estrela vs Academico Viseu?
Our model rates Over 2.5 goals at 55.1% for Estrela vs Academico Viseu.
Will there be a first-half goal in Estrela vs Academico Viseu?
The model rates at least one goal before half-time at 71.0%.
How often have Estrela gone over 2.5 recently?
Estrela have gone over 2.5 in 5 of their last 5, Academico Viseu in 3 of 5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals accuracy
How our Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 18,270 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Over / Under 2.5 Goals actually happened 54.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 19 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls
Our most recent Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Primeira Liga, Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
