Primeira Liga
Nacional vs 
Famalicao Over / Under 2.5 Goals
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Under 2.5 goals at 60.5%, its strongest read on the Over / Under 2.5 Goals market. It is driven by both attacks and defences: Nacional have averaged 1.0 scored and 1.8 conceded, Famalicao 0.8 and 1.2 over their recent games. That fits a tighter goals environment: 39.5% for over 2.5 and 66.7% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 1.6 goals a game. Nacional have gone over 2.5 in 2 of their last 5, Famalicao in 2 of 5. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Total goals, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 88.9% | 11.1% |
| 1.5 goals | 66.7% | 33.3% |
| 2.5 goals | 39.5% | 60.5% |
| 3.5 goals | 19.4% | 80.6% |
| 4.5 goals | 8.1% | 92.0% |
| 5.5 goals | 2.9% | 97.1% |
Team goal lines
65.0%
28.3%
9.0%
70.3%
34.3%
12.4%
First-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 60.2% | 39.8% |
| 1.5 goals | 23.6% | 76.4% |
| 2.5 goals | 6.7% | 93.4% |
Second-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 70.4% | 29.6% |
| 1.5 goals | 34.4% | 65.6% |
| 2.5 goals | 12.4% | 87.6% |
This season (2026/27)
1.2Nacional goals scored per game1.8Nacional goals conceded per game50.0%Nacional Over 2.5 rate0.5Nacional 1st-half goals per game0.9Famalicao goals scored per game1.1Famalicao goals conceded per game28.6%Famalicao Over 2.5 rate0.5Famalicao 1st-half goals per gameGoals distribution
How likely each total number of goals is, according to the model. Every goals market on this page is built from these bars. The 5+ bar covers every result with five goals or more.
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1
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5+
In-depth analysis
We publish the model, not a sure thing. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.
46.4%Both Teams to Score39.5%Over 2.5 goalsOn the goals side, the model sees 39.5% for three or more goals and 66.7% for at least two, painting a lower-scoring picture. With Famalicao favoured at 39.1%, neither side dominating can mean an end-to-end match.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Famalicao to win. See the full prediction →
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Nacional 1 · 1 draws · Famalicao 3 · 1.6 goals/game.
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.
FAQ
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Nacional vs Famalicao?
Our model rates Over 2.5 goals at 39.5% for Nacional vs Famalicao.
Will there be a first-half goal in Nacional vs Famalicao?
The model rates at least one goal before half-time at 60.2%.
How often have Nacional gone over 2.5 recently?
Nacional have gone over 2.5 in 2 of their last 5, Famalicao in 2 of 5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals accuracy
How our Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 8,257 matches we rated like this one (30–40%), Over / Under 2.5 Goals actually happened 41.6% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 19 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls
Our most recent Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Primeira Liga, Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
