La Liga
Santander vs 
Valencia Corners
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 9.5 corners at 49.9%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Across the lines, the model goes from 74.6% for over 7.5 to 20.3% for over 12.5, with over 9.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 51.2%. Between the two sides, Santander are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 53.8%, with a level count at 10.6%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Corners
Total corners, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 74.6% | 25.4% |
| 8.5 corners | 63.3% | 36.7% |
| 9.5 corners | 51.2% | 48.8% |
| 10.5 corners | 39.5% | 60.6% |
| 11.5 corners | 29.0% | 71.0% |
| 12.5 corners | 20.3% | 79.7% |
Who wins the corner count
Team corner lines
74.2%
59.0%
43.7%
62.3%
45.2%
30.2%
Corner handicap
| Santander line | Santander | Valencia |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 43.0% | 57.0% |
| -0.5 | 53.8% | 46.2% |
| +0.5 | 64.5% | 35.6% |
| +1.5 | 74.0% | 26.0% |
This season (2026/27)
4.3Santander corners won per game9.1Santander corners conceded per game4.4Valencia corners won per game3.7Valencia corners conceded per gameCorner counts follow pressure and wide play, below are the model total-corner probabilities. It leans to Santander.
In-depth analysis
Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. The track record is public, misses included.
51.2%Over 9.5 corners59.0%Santander over 4.5 corners45.2%Valencia over 4.5 corners50.0%Odd corner totalBy team, Santander over 4.5 corners sits at 59.0% and Valencia at 45.2%. This season Santander have averaged 4.3 corners won a game and Valencia 4.4.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many corners in Santander vs Valencia?
The model rates over 9.5 total corners at 51.2% for Santander vs Valencia.
Which team will win the corner count in Santander vs Valencia?
The model rates Santander to win the corner count at 53.8%, with a level count at 10.6%.
How many corners do Santander and Valencia average this season?
Santander have won 4.3 corners a game this season and Valencia 4.4.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 23,827 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Corners actually happened 54.2% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 23 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Corners calls
Our most recent Corners calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More La Liga, Corners
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
