La Liga
Vallecano vs 
Ath Bilbao Corners
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 9.5 corners at 52.9%, its strongest read on the Corners market. The total-corners ladder runs from 77.2% for over 7.5 to 22.8% for over 12.5, with over 9.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 54.6%. Head to head on corners, Vallecano are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 53.9%, with a level count at 10.5%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Corners
Total corners, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 77.2% | 22.8% |
| 8.5 corners | 66.4% | 33.6% |
| 9.5 corners | 54.6% | 45.4% |
| 10.5 corners | 42.8% | 57.2% |
| 11.5 corners | 32.0% | 68.0% |
| 12.5 corners | 22.8% | 77.2% |
Who wins the corner count
Team corner lines
75.9%
61.2%
46.0%
64.4%
47.5%
32.3%
Corner handicap
| Vallecano line | Vallecano | Ath Bilbao |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 43.2% | 56.8% |
| -0.5 | 53.9% | 46.1% |
| +0.5 | 64.3% | 35.7% |
| +1.5 | 73.8% | 26.2% |
This season (2026/27)
5.5Vallecano corners won per game6.5Vallecano corners conceded per game6.4Ath Bilbao corners won per game5.6Ath Bilbao corners conceded per gameCorners track territory and shot volume more than the scoreline, below are the model total-corner probabilities. The model edges Vallecano.
In-depth analysis
We publish the model, not a sure thing. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.
54.6%Over 9.5 corners61.2%Vallecano over 4.5 corners47.5%Ath Bilbao over 4.5 corners50.0%Odd corner totalSplit by side, Vallecano over 4.5 corners sits at 61.2% and Ath Bilbao at 47.5%. This season Vallecano have averaged 5.5 corners won a game and Ath Bilbao 6.4.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many corners in Vallecano vs Ath Bilbao?
The model rates over 9.5 total corners at 54.6% for Vallecano vs Ath Bilbao.
Which team will win the corner count in Vallecano vs Ath Bilbao?
The model rates Vallecano to win the corner count at 53.9%, with a level count at 10.5%.
How many corners do Vallecano and Ath Bilbao average this season?
Vallecano have won 5.5 corners a game this season and Ath Bilbao 6.4.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 23,762 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Corners actually happened 54.2% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 21 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Corners calls
Our most recent Corners calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More La Liga, Corners
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
