Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Model pick
Levante47.4%
Win probability · fair 2.11
Top signals
Over 1.5 goalsVery likely75.3%Fair 1.33
Levante or drawLikely73.0%Fair 1.37
Over 8.5 cornersClose call59.3%Fair 1.69
Model read
▾
Levante versus Sevilla on 12 October 2026 tilts towards Levante in our numbers (47%), with plenty left over for the other outcomes. The numbers that frame it: • No strong lean on goals (50% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. • Schedule edge: Levante have had 3 more days of rest than Sevilla. • Etta Eyong drives the home shot volume, 1.4 on target per 90. The recent series reads 2 wins for Levante, 0 draws and 3 for Sevilla over 5 games, 3.8 goals on average. The run in: Levante arrive W1 D2 L3, Sevilla W4 D1 L1. The engine passes on this one (no bookmaker price published for this match yet).
Value & higher-risk angles
Outcomes the model rates higher than the obvious price suggests, plus a few long-shot scorelines that are simply possible. These are the least likely calls on the page, so treat them as such. They are not tips, and we do not beat the sharp bookmakers.
High risk
Over 10.5 corners38.1%@ 2.62
Medium risk
Both teams to score53.8%@ 1.86
Draw or Sevilla52.6%@ 1.90
Over 2.5 goals50.0%@ 2.00
Random finds
1-1 correct score12.6%@ 7.94
1-0 correct score10.0%@ 9.97
2-1 correct score9.2%@ 10.85
Model vs market
Levante
47.4%
Draw
25.7%
Sevilla
27.0%
Model
no bookmaker price published for this match yet
Goals
Over 1.5Strongest read · Very likely75.3%Fair 1.33
Over 2.5Close call50.0%Fair 2.00
BTTS · YesClose call53.8%Fair 1.86
Corners
Over 8.5 cornersClose call59.3%Fair 1.69
Over 9.5 cornersClose call48.4%Fair 2.07
Over 10.5 cornersUnlikely38.1%Fair 2.62
Over 11.5 cornersLong shot28.9%Fair 3.46
Most cornersLevante53.6%Sevilla35.4%
Shots
Over 22.5 shotsLikely61.6%Fair 1.62
Over 24.5 shotsClose call48.9%Fair 2.04
Over 26.5 shotsUnlikely36.7%Fair 2.72
Over 28.5 shotsLong shot26.0%Fair 3.85
Recent shot volume
Levante12.2 taken14.7 faced
Sevilla11.7 taken9.2 faced
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
First half / second half shots
Shots before and after the break, per game, across the number of games in brackets. The bar shows how much of the shooting happens in the first half. These come from a different source than the match shot totals above, and we only count a match when the shots before the break add up to the actual half-time score. A match where they did not is left out rather than guessed at, which is why the two sets of numbers can differ.
Levante (5 games)
5.2 / 6.4
Sevilla (6 games)
4.0 / 7.8
Totals line guide
0.5·1.575.3%2.550.0%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.575.3%
Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Form & head-to-head
LevanteLDWDL
SevillaWLDWW
Last 5 meetings: Levante 2 · 0 draws · Sevilla 3 · 3.8 goals/game.
Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup
Etta EyongLevante · key player
To score18.3%5.46
1+ on target49.1%2.04
2+ shots39.0%2.56
Shots/90 2.8SoT/90 1.4Goals/90 0.42
AlfonSevilla · key player
To score13.9%7.19
1+ on target49.4%2.02
2+ shots35.0%2.86
Shots/90 2.65SoT/90 1.46Goals/90 0.32
Paco CortésLevante · in form
To score0.0%·
1+ on target28.3%3.53
2+ shots21.5%4.65
Shots/90 2.26SoT/90 0.87Goals/90 0
Lucas StassinSevilla · in form
To score36.1%2.77
1+ on target59.2%1.69
2+ shots50.5%1.98
Shots/90 2.23SoT/90 1.18Goals/90 0.59
Roger BruguéLevante · in form
To score15.5%6.45
1+ on target44.0%2.27
2+ shots50.9%1.96
Shots/90 2.53SoT/90 0.86Goals/90 0.25
Miguel SierraSevilla · in form
To score16.4%6.10
1+ on target42.0%2.38
2+ shots36.4%2.75
Shots/90 2.2SoT/90 0.94Goals/90 0.31
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Levante win2.17
Draw3.78
Sevilla win3.63
Both teams to score1.86
Goals
Over 0.5 goals1.08
Over 1.5 goals1.33
Over 2.5 goals2.00
Over 3.5 goals3.56
Levante most2.17
Sevilla most3.63
Corners
Over 7.5 corners1.36
Over 8.5 corners1.62
Over 9.5 corners2.02
Over 10.5 corners2.65
Levante most1.86
Sevilla most2.82
Cards
Over 2.5 cards1.20
Over 3.5 cards1.48
Over 4.5 cards2.02
Over 5.5 cards3.04
Levante most3.42
Sevilla most1.89
Shots on target
Over 6.5 SoT1.32
Over 7.5 SoT1.57
Over 8.5 SoT1.95
Over 9.5 SoT2.57
Levante most1.79
Sevilla most3.16
Shots
Over 22.5 shots1.62
Over 24.5 shots2.04
Over 26.5 shots2.72
Over 28.5 shots3.85
Levante most1.64
Sevilla most3.04
Fouls
Over 20.5 fouls1.23
Over 22.5 fouls1.42
Over 24.5 fouls1.75
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots
Over 22.5
61.6%
Over 24.5
49.0%
Over 26.5
36.7%
Over 28.5
26.0%
Most: Levante
61.1%
Most: Sevilla
32.9%
Levante Over 13.2
47.0%
Sevilla Over 13.2
27.3%
Shots on target
Over 6.5
75.7%
Over 7.5
63.9%
Over 8.5
51.2%
Over 9.5
38.9%
Most: Levante
56.0%
Most: Sevilla
31.7%
Levante Over 4.2
53.0%
Sevilla Over 4.2
35.4%
Cards
Over 2.5
83.3%
Over 3.5
67.4%
Over 4.5
49.5%
Most: Levante
29.3%
Most: Sevilla
52.9%
Levante Over 1.8
58.1%
Sevilla Over 1.8
73.4%
Levante: players to watch (recent-form projection)
Each number is the player’s recent rate per 90 minutes, scaled to how long we expect them to play. Only players in this season’s squad appear. It is a projection from recent form, not a confirmed lineup: nobody has announced the team yet.
Player
Shots/90
SoT/90
Goals/90
1+ SoT
2+ shots
To score
Etta Eyong
2.8
1.4
0.42
49.1%
39.0%
18.3%
Paco Cortés
2.26
0.87
0
28.3%
21.5%
0.0%
Roger Brugué
2.53
0.86
0.25
44.0%
50.9%
15.5%
Iván Romero
2.47
0.73
0.3
44.2%
58.6%
21.3%
Thiago Fernández
1.55
0.66
0
34.7%
26.5%
0.0%
Sevilla: players to watch (recent-form projection)
Each number is the player’s recent rate per 90 minutes, scaled to how long we expect them to play. Only players in this season’s squad appear. It is a projection from recent form, not a confirmed lineup: nobody has announced the team yet.
Player
Shots/90
SoT/90
Goals/90
1+ SoT
2+ shots
To score
Alfon
2.65
1.46
0.32
49.4%
35.0%
13.9%
Lucas Stassin
2.23
1.18
0.59
59.2%
50.5%
36.1%
Miguel Sierra
2.2
0.94
0.31
42.0%
36.4%
16.4%
Isaac Romero
2.17
0.71
0.23
37.1%
41.4%
13.9%
Chidera Ejuke
2.08
0.59
0.21
18.8%
16.8%
7.2%
Clean sheet & win to nil
Worked out from the scoreline grid above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the other side fails to score. It is the model’s own percentage, scored against the result afterwards, and it is not a tip.
Levante clean sheet
32.1%
Sevilla clean sheet
21.5%
Levante win to nil
24.6%
Sevilla win to nil
14.0%
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
The model’s own percentages, with no odds attached. The smaller markets are here so you can see everything we hold a number on, not because we claim an advantage in them. The colour says how close our percentages have landed to reality on matches the model had never seen.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home
46.0%
draw
26.5%
away
27.6%
double_chance
1X
72.5%
12
73.5%
X2
54.0%
dnb
home
62.5%
away
37.5%
btts
yes
53.8%
no
46.2%
clean_sheet
home
32.2%
away
21.5%
win_to_nil
home
24.7%
away
14.0%
winning_margin
home_by_1
22.4%
home_by_2
14.1%
home_by_3plus
9.5%
away_by_1
16.4%
away_by_2
7.7%
away_by_3plus
3.5%
correct_score
0-0
7.5%
0-1
7.2%
0-2
4.5%
0-3
1.7%
0-4
0.5%
0-5
0.1%
1-0
10.0%
1-1
12.6%
1-2
6.8%
1-3
2.6%
1-4
0.8%
1-5
0.2%
2-0
8.2%
2-1
9.2%
2-2
5.2%
2-3
2.0%
2-4
0.6%
2-5
0.1%
3-0
4.2%
3-1
4.7%
3-2
2.7%
3-3
1.0%
3-4
0.3%
3-5
0.1%
4-0
1.6%
4-1
1.8%
4-2
1.0%
4-3
0.4%
4-4
0.1%
4-5
0.0%
5-0
0.5%
5-1
0.6%
5-2
0.3%
5-3
0.1%
5-4
0.0%
5-5
0.0%
other
0.6%
likeliest_score
h
100.0%
a
100.0%
p
12.6%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5
92.5%
under_0.5
7.5%
over_1.5
75.3%
under_1.5
24.7%
over_2.5
50.0%
under_2.5
50.0%
over_3.5
28.1%
under_3.5
71.9%
over_4.5
13.4%
under_4.5
86.6%
over_5.5
5.5%
under_5.5
94.5%
odd_even
odd
48.6%
even
51.4%
team_home
over_0.5
78.5%
under_0.5
21.5%
over_1.5
45.5%
under_1.5
54.5%
over_2.5
20.1%
under_2.5
79.9%
team_away
over_0.5
67.8%
under_0.5
32.2%
over_1.5
31.4%
under_1.5
68.6%
over_2.5
10.8%
under_2.5
89.2%
most
home
46.0%
draw
26.5%
away
27.6%
handicap
home_-2.5
9.5%
away_+2.5
90.5%
home_-1.5
23.6%
away_+1.5
76.4%
home_-0.5
46.0%
away_+0.5
54.0%
home_+0.5
72.5%
away_-0.5
27.6%
home_+1.5
88.8%
away_-1.5
11.2%
home_+2.5
96.5%
away_-2.5
3.5%
total_exact
exact_0
7.5%
exact_1
17.2%
exact_2
25.2%
exact_3
22.0%
exact_4
14.7%
exact_5
7.9%
exact_6
3.5%
exact_7plus
2.0%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home
35.2%
draw
42.6%
away
22.2%
total
over_0.5
68.4%
under_0.5
31.6%
over_1.5
32.0%
under_1.5
68.0%
over_2.5
11.0%
under_2.5
89.0%
btts
yes
18.6%
no
81.4%
total_exact
exact_0
31.6%
exact_1
36.4%
exact_2
21.0%
exact_3
8.1%
exact_4plus
3.0%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home
36.3%
draw
35.7%
away
28.1%
total
over_0.5
79.1%
under_0.5
20.9%
over_1.5
46.4%
under_1.5
53.6%
over_2.5
20.8%
under_2.5
79.2%
btts
yes
29.2%
no
70.8%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H
27.5%
H/D
5.5%
H/A
2.2%
D/H
15.5%
D/D
15.2%
D/A
12.0%
A/H
2.3%
A/D
4.6%
A/A
15.3%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5
73.3%
under_7.5
26.7%
over_8.5
61.7%
under_8.5
38.3%
over_9.5
49.5%
under_9.5
50.5%
over_10.5
37.8%
under_10.5
62.3%
over_11.5
27.4%
under_11.5
72.6%
over_12.5
18.9%
under_12.5
81.1%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
73.4%
under_3.5
26.6%
over_4.5
58.0%
under_4.5
42.0%
over_5.5
42.6%
under_5.5
57.4%
team_away
over_3.5
61.4%
under_3.5
38.7%
over_4.5
44.1%
under_4.5
55.9%
over_5.5
29.1%
under_5.5
70.9%
most
home
53.8%
draw
10.8%
away
35.5%
handicap
home_-3.5
23.3%
away_+3.5
76.7%
home_-1.5
42.8%
away_+1.5
57.2%
home_-0.5
53.8%
away_+0.5
46.2%
home_+0.5
64.5%
away_-0.5
35.5%
home_+1.5
74.2%
away_-1.5
25.8%
home_+3.5
88.5%
away_-3.5
11.5%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5
61.6%
under_22.5
38.4%
over_24.5
48.9%
under_24.5
51.1%
over_26.5
36.7%
under_26.5
63.3%
over_28.5
26.0%
under_28.5
74.0%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_10.5
72.1%
under_10.5
27.9%
over_12.5
55.4%
under_12.5
44.6%
over_14.5
38.9%
under_14.5
61.1%
team_away
over_10.5
53.3%
under_10.5
46.7%
over_12.5
35.1%
under_12.5
64.9%
over_14.5
20.7%
under_14.5
79.3%
most
home
61.1%
draw
6.0%
away
32.9%
handicap
home_-4.5
35.8%
away_+4.5
64.2%
home_-2.5
48.3%
away_+2.5
51.7%
home_-0.5
61.1%
away_+0.5
38.9%
home_+0.5
67.1%
away_-0.5
32.9%
home_+2.5
77.8%
away_-2.5
22.2%
home_+4.5
86.2%
away_-4.5
13.8%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5
75.7%
under_6.5
24.3%
over_7.5
63.9%
under_7.5
36.1%
over_8.5
51.2%
under_8.5
48.8%
over_9.5
38.9%
under_9.5
61.1%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
70.1%
under_3.5
29.9%
over_4.5
53.1%
under_4.5
46.9%
over_5.5
36.8%
under_5.5
63.2%
team_away
over_3.5
53.8%
under_3.5
46.3%
over_4.5
35.4%
under_4.5
64.6%
over_5.5
21.0%
under_5.5
79.0%
most
home
56.0%
draw
12.3%
away
31.7%
handicap
home_-2.5
31.0%
away_+2.5
69.0%
home_-0.5
56.0%
away_+0.5
44.0%
home_+0.5
68.3%
away_-0.5
31.7%
home_+2.5
87.0%
away_-2.5
13.0%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5
83.3%
under_2.5
16.7%
over_3.5
67.5%
under_3.5
32.6%
over_4.5
49.5%
under_4.5
50.5%
over_5.5
32.9%
under_5.5
67.2%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_1.5
58.1%
under_1.5
41.9%
over_2.5
32.0%
under_2.5
68.0%
team_away
over_1.5
73.4%
under_1.5
26.6%
over_2.5
49.5%
under_2.5
50.6%
most
home
29.3%
draw
17.8%
away
52.9%
handicap
home_-1.5
15.6%
away_+1.5
84.4%
home_-0.5
29.3%
away_+0.5
70.7%
home_+0.5
47.1%
away_-0.5
52.9%
home_+1.5
65.1%
away_-1.5
34.8%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5
81.5%
under_20.5
18.5%
over_22.5
70.3%
under_22.5
29.7%
over_24.5
57.3%
under_24.5
42.7%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_9.5
72.7%
under_9.5
27.3%
over_11.5
53.3%
under_11.5
46.7%
over_13.5
34.3%
under_13.5
65.7%
team_away
over_9.5
83.6%
under_9.5
16.4%
over_11.5
68.1%
under_11.5
32.0%
over_13.5
49.8%
under_13.5
50.2%
most
home
35.9%
draw
6.6%
away
57.6%
handicap
home_-3.5
19.1%
away_+3.5
80.9%
home_-0.5
35.9%
away_+0.5
64.1%
home_+2.5
56.0%
away_-2.5
44.0%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes
28.1%
no
71.9%
home
yes
11.6%
no
88.4%
away
yes
18.7%
no
81.3%
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
La Liga
Levante
Sevilla