La Liga
Santander vs 
Valencia Over / Under 2.5 Goals
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Under 2.5 goals at 54.4%, its strongest read on the Over / Under 2.5 Goals market. The goals picture is built on form: Santander have averaged 1.8 scored and 3.6 conceded, Valencia 0.8 and 2.4 over their recent games. That fits a balanced goals environment: 45.6% for over 2.5 and 71.9% for at least two goals. Santander have gone over 2.5 in 5 of their last 5, Valencia in 3 of 5. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Total goals, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 91.2% | 8.8% |
| 1.5 goals | 71.9% | 28.1% |
| 2.5 goals | 45.7% | 54.4% |
| 3.5 goals | 24.3% | 75.7% |
| 4.5 goals | 10.9% | 89.1% |
| 5.5 goals | 4.2% | 95.8% |
Team goal lines
73.2%
37.9%
14.7%
69.4%
33.2%
11.7%
First-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 80.3% | 19.7% |
| 1.5 goals | 48.4% | 51.7% |
| 2.5 goals | 22.3% | 77.7% |
Second-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 81.0% | 19.0% |
| 1.5 goals | 49.5% | 50.5% |
| 2.5 goals | 23.3% | 76.7% |
This season (2026/27)
1.6Santander goals scored per game3.0Santander goals conceded per game85.7%Santander Over 2.5 rate1.3Santander 1st-half goals per game0.6Valencia goals scored per game1.9Valencia goals conceded per game42.9%Valencia Over 2.5 rate0.1Valencia 1st-half goals per gameGoals distribution
How likely each total number of goals is, according to the model. Every goals market on this page is built from these bars. The 5+ bar covers every result with five goals or more.
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5+
In-depth analysis
51.4%Both Teams to Score45.6%Over 2.5 goalsOn the goals side, the model sees 45.6% for three or more goals and 71.9% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. Given Santander favoured at 40.4%, a close contest often produces chances at both ends.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Santander to win. See the full prediction →
Key players
This season’s squad only, rated on recent form; a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.
Form & head-to-head
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.
FAQ
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Santander vs Valencia?
Our model rates Over 2.5 goals at 45.6% for Santander vs Valencia.
Will there be a first-half goal in Santander vs Valencia?
The model rates at least one goal before half-time at 80.3%.
How often have Santander gone over 2.5 recently?
Santander have gone over 2.5 in 5 of their last 5, Valencia in 3 of 5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals accuracy
How our Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 20,782 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Over / Under 2.5 Goals actually happened 47.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 22 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls
Our most recent Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More La Liga, Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
