La Liga
Santander vs 
Valencia Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 62.2%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 79.6% for over 2.5 to 27.6% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 43.7%. On the card count, Valencia are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 41.5%, with a level count at 19.2%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 79.6% | 20.4% |
| 3.5 cards | 62.2% | 37.8% |
| 4.5 cards | 43.7% | 56.4% |
| 5.5 cards | 27.6% | 72.4% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
61.9%
36.0%
63.4%
37.7%
Card handicap
| Santander line | Santander | Valencia |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 22.6% | 77.4% |
| -0.5 | 39.3% | 60.8% |
| +0.5 | 58.5% | 41.5% |
| +1.5 | 75.6% | 24.4% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 77.3% | 22.8% |
| 22.5 fouls | 64.9% | 35.1% |
| 24.5 fouls | 51.3% | 48.7% |
This season (2026/27)
2.7Santander cards per game14.3Santander fouls per game2.0Valencia cards per game10.6Valencia fouls per gameBookings are a lower-liquidity market, so calibration matters most here, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Santander vs Valencia. The model leans toward Valencia for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We score every call against the result after the match.
62.2%Over 3.5 cards24.1%Any red card61.9%Santander over 1.5 cards63.4%Valencia over 1.5 cards64.9%Over 22.5 foulsSplit by side, Santander over 1.5 cards sits at 61.9% and Valencia at 63.4%. A red card for either side is rated at 24.1% (Santander 15.6%, Valencia 10.1%). This season Santander have averaged 2.7 cards a game and Valencia 2.0.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Santander vs Valencia?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 62.2% for Santander vs Valencia.
Will there be a red card in Santander vs Valencia?
The model rates a red card for either side at 24.1%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Santander vs Valencia?
The model rates Valencia to pick up more cards at 41.5%, with a level count at 19.2%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 10,143 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 22 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More La Liga, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
