Betis vs Osasuna: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 21 Sep 2026

La Liga

Betis

WLWWW

Sun, 11 Oct 202611/1017:30UK

Osasuna

WWLLL

Model’s top convictions

82%

Betis or draw

77%

Over 1.5 goals

57%

Over 8.5 corners

Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Model pick

Betis57.8%

Win probability · fair 1.73

Top signals

Betis or drawVery likely82.5%Fair 1.21

Over 1.5 goalsVery likely77.3%Fair 1.29

Over 8.5 cornersClose call57.1%Fair 1.75

Model read

"When model and market disagree on Betis, that gap is the story." On paper this is one way traffic: the calibrated model makes Betis heavy favourites at 58% when Betis meet Osasuna in the La Liga on 11 October 2026. No strong lean on goals (53% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. The recent series reads 3 wins for Betis, 2 draws and 0 for Osasuna over 5 games, 2.2 goals on average. Form guide over the last six: Betis W5 D0 L1, Osasuna W2 D1 L3. Antony drives the home shot volume, 1.3 on target per 90. The engine passes on this one (no bookmaker price published for this match yet).

Value & higher-risk angles

Outcomes the model rates higher than the obvious price suggests, plus a few long-shot scorelines that are simply possible. These are the least likely calls on the page, so treat them as such. They are not tips, and we do not beat the sharp bookmakers.

High risk

Over 9.5 corners46.2%@ 2.16

Draw or Osasuna42.3%@ 2.37

Over 10.5 corners35.9%@ 2.79

Medium risk

Both teams to score53.1%@ 1.88

Over 2.5 goals52.9%@ 1.89

Random finds

1-1 correct score11.5%@ 8.70

1-0 correct score10.5%@ 9.57

2-0 correct score9.9%@ 10.13

Model vs market

Betis

57.8%

Draw

24.7%

Osasuna

17.5%

Model

no bookmaker price published for this match yet

Goals

Over 1.5Strongest read · Very likely77.3%Fair 1.29

Over 2.5Close call52.9%Fair 1.89

BTTS · YesClose call53.1%Fair 1.88

Corners

Over 8.5 cornersClose call57.1%Fair 1.75

Over 9.5 cornersClose call46.2%Fair 2.16

Over 10.5 cornersUnlikely35.9%Fair 2.79

Over 11.5 cornersLong shot27.0%Fair 3.70

Most cornersBetis58.3%Osasuna31.0%

Shots

Over 22.5 shotsLikely63.1%Fair 1.58

Over 24.5 shotsClose call50.5%Fair 1.98

Over 26.5 shotsUnlikely38.2%Fair 2.62

Over 28.5 shotsLong shot27.1%Fair 3.69

Recent shot volume

Betis18.5 taken14.3 faced

Osasuna9.3 taken11.8 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

First half / second half shots

Shots before and after the break, per game, across the number of games in brackets. The bar shows how much of the shooting happens in the first half. These come from a different source than the match shot totals above, and we only count a match when the shots before the break add up to the actual half-time score. A match where they did not is left out rather than guessed at, which is why the two sets of numbers can differ.

Betis (6 games)

9.3 / 9.2

Osasuna (6 games)

4.2 / 5.2

Totals line guide

0.5·1.577.3%2.552.9%3.5·4.5·

Recommended focusOver 1.577.3%

Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Form & head-to-head

BetisWLWWW

OsasunaWWLLL

Last 5 meetings: Betis 3 · 2 draws · Osasuna 0 · 2.2 goals/game.

2026-04-12Osasuna 1-1 Betis

2025-09-28Betis 2-0 Osasuna

2025-05-11Betis 1-1 Osasuna

2024-10-19Osasuna 1-2 Betis

2024-05-05Osasuna 0-2 Betis

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

Betis

Osasuna

League position#3 of 20#11 of 20

Record W-D-L5-0-12-2-3

Current streakW3D1

Points per game2.501.14

Record, home vs away3-0-01-0-2

PPG, home vs away3.001.00

Goals scored per game1.330.86

Goals conceded per game1.001.86

Scored, home vs away1.001.33

Conceded, home vs away0.003.33

1st half goals per game0.830.17

2nd half goals per game0.500.67

Corners won per game4.72.8

Cards per game1.32.3

Fouls per game9.812.8

Red cards this season00

Shots per game18.59.3

Shots faced per game14.311.8

Shots on target per game6.84.0

1st half shots per game9.34.2

2nd half shots per game9.25.2

xG for per game2.031.27

xG against per game1.811.71

Over 2.5 rate

33.3%42.9%

BTTS rate

33.3%42.9%

Clean sheets

66.7%28.6%

Rates this season:BetisOsasuna

League averages this season: 3.08 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 57% · BTTS in 57%. Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

AntonyBetis · key player

To score18.7%5.35

1+ on target65.0%1.54

2+ shots75.4%1.33

Shots/90 3.41SoT/90 1.32Goals/90 0.26

Raul GarcíaOsasuna · key player

To score13.3%7.52

1+ on target41.0%2.44

2+ shots28.5%3.51

Shots/90 3.62SoT/90 1.81Goals/90 0.49

Pablo GarcíaBetis · in form

To score7.9%12.66

1+ on target31.2%3.21

2+ shots24.9%4.02

Shots/90 3.25SoT/90 1.27Goals/90 0.28

Ante BudimirOsasuna · in form

To score42.9%2.33

1+ on target67.4%1.48

2+ shots76.3%1.31

Shots/90 3.11SoT/90 1.26Goals/90 0.63

Abdessamad EzzalzouliBetis · in form

To score17.8%5.62

1+ on target55.1%1.81

2+ shots62.9%1.59

Shots/90 2.72SoT/90 1.02Goals/90 0.25

Kike BarjaOsasuna · in form

To score6.1%16.39

1+ on target11.7%8.55

2+ shots5.0%20.00

Shots/90 1.7SoT/90 0.6Goals/90 0.3

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Betis win1.80

Draw4.14

Osasuna win4.92

Both teams to score1.88

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.07

Over 1.5 goals1.29

Over 2.5 goals1.89

Over 3.5 goals3.26

Betis most1.80

Osasuna most4.92

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.40

Over 8.5 corners1.69

Over 9.5 corners2.13

Over 10.5 corners2.83

Betis most1.71

Osasuna most3.22

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.26

Over 3.5 cards1.61

Over 4.5 cards2.30

Over 5.5 cards3.64

Betis most3.19

Osasuna most2.01

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.30

Over 7.5 SoT1.52

Over 8.5 SoT1.88

Over 9.5 SoT2.44

Betis most1.55

Osasuna most4.12

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.58

Over 24.5 shots1.98

Over 26.5 shots2.62

Over 28.5 shots3.69

Betis most1.46

Osasuna most3.83

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.35

Over 22.5 fouls1.64

Over 24.5 fouls2.12

All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5	63.1%	Over 24.5	50.5%	Over 26.5	38.2%	Over 28.5	27.1%
Most: Betis	68.4%	Most: Osasuna	26.1%
Betis Over 13.2	53.3%	Osasuna Over 13.2	23.2%

Shots on target

Over 6.5	77.2%	Over 7.5	65.7%	Over 8.5	53.2%	Over 9.5	40.9%
Most: Betis	64.5%	Most: Osasuna	24.3%
Betis Over 4.2	60.0%	Osasuna Over 4.2	30.3%

Cards

Over 2.5	79.7%	Over 3.5	62.1%	Over 4.5	43.5%
Most: Betis	31.4%	Most: Osasuna	49.8%
Betis Over 1.8	56.1%	Osasuna Over 1.8	68.5%

Betis: players to watch (recent-form projection)

Each number is the player’s recent rate per 90 minutes, scaled to how long we expect them to play. Only players in this season’s squad appear. It is a projection from recent form, not a confirmed lineup: nobody has announced the team yet.

Player	Shots/90	SoT/90	Goals/90	1+ SoT	2+ shots	To score
Antony	3.41	1.32	0.26	65.0%	75.4%	18.7%
Pablo García	3.25	1.27	0.28	31.2%	24.9%	7.9%
Abdessamad Ezzalzouli	2.72	1.02	0.25	55.1%	62.9%	17.8%
Giovani Lo Celso	1.98	0.92	0.26	44.1%	35.5%	15.1%
Juan Camilo Hernández	3.05	0.89	0.38	54.0%	74.5%	28.3%

Osasuna: players to watch (recent-form projection)

Player	Shots/90	SoT/90	Goals/90	1+ SoT	2+ shots	To score
Raul García	3.62	1.81	0.49	41.0%	28.5%	13.3%
Ante Budimir	3.11	1.26	0.63	67.4%	76.3%	42.9%
Kike Barja	1.7	0.6	0.3	11.7%	5.0%	6.1%
Romain Del Castillo	1.15	0.5	0.33	30.3%	20.2%	21.2%
Asier Osambela	1.24	0.46	0.15	12.6%	5.2%	4.3%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Worked out from the scoreline grid above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the other side fails to score. It is the model’s own percentage, scored against the result afterwards, and it is not a tip.

Betis clean sheet	36.5%
Osasuna clean sheet	16.6%
Betis win to nil	29.8%
Osasuna win to nil	10.0%

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

The model’s own percentages, with no odds attached. The smaller markets are here so you can see everything we hold a number on, not because we claim an advantage in them. The colour says how close our percentages have landed to reality on matches the model had never seen.

Match result & goals calibrated

1×2

home	55.5%	draw	24.2%	away	20.3%

double_chance

1X	79.7%	12	75.8%	X2	44.5%

dnb

home	73.2%	away	26.8%

btts

yes	53.1%	no	46.9%

clean_sheet

home	36.9%	away	16.7%

win_to_nil

home	30.2%	away	10.0%

winning_margin

home_by_1	23.7%	home_by_2	17.2%	home_by_3plus	14.6%
away_by_1	12.9%	away_by_2	5.4%	away_by_3plus	2.0%

correct_score

0-0	6.7%	0-1	5.6%	0-2	3.1%
0-3	1.0%	0-4	0.3%	0-5	0.1%
1-0	10.5%	1-1	11.5%	1-2	5.5%
1-3	1.8%	1-4	0.5%	1-5	0.1%
2-0	9.9%	2-1	9.8%	2-2	4.9%
2-3	1.6%	2-4	0.4%	2-5	0.1%
3-0	5.9%	3-1	5.9%	3-2	2.9%
3-3	1.0%	3-4	0.3%	3-5	0.1%
4-0	2.7%	4-1	2.6%	4-2	1.3%
4-3	0.4%	4-4	0.1%	4-5	0.0%
5-0	1.0%	5-1	1.0%	5-2	0.5%
5-3	0.2%	5-4	0.0%	5-5	0.0%
other	1.1%

likeliest_score

h	100.0%	a	100.0%	p	11.5%

Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated

total

over_0.5	93.3%	under_0.5	6.7%	over_1.5	77.3%
under_1.5	22.7%	over_2.5	52.9%	under_2.5	47.1%
over_3.5	30.7%	under_3.5	69.3%	over_4.5	15.2%
under_4.5	84.8%	over_5.5	6.5%	under_5.5	93.5%

odd_even

odd	48.7%	even	51.3%

team_home

over_0.5	83.4%	under_0.5	16.7%	over_1.5	53.5%
under_1.5	46.5%	over_2.5	26.8%	under_2.5	73.2%

team_away

over_0.5	63.1%	under_0.5	36.9%	over_1.5	26.4%
under_1.5	73.6%	over_2.5	8.1%	under_2.5	91.9%

most

home	55.5%	draw	24.2%	away	20.3%

handicap

home_-2.5	14.6%	away_+2.5	85.4%	home_-1.5	31.8%
away_+1.5	68.2%	home_-0.5	55.5%	away_+0.5	44.5%
home_+0.5	79.7%	away_-0.5	20.3%	home_+1.5	92.6%
away_-1.5	7.4%	home_+2.5	98.0%	away_-2.5	2.0%

total_exact

exact_0	6.7%	exact_1	16.0%	exact_2	24.4%
exact_3	22.2%	exact_4	15.5%	exact_5	8.7%
exact_6	4.1%	exact_7plus	2.4%

First half range, not a point

1×2

home	42.6%	draw	39.6%	away	17.9%

total

over_0.5	71.5%	under_0.5	28.5%	over_1.5	35.7%
under_1.5	64.3%	over_2.5	13.3%	under_2.5	86.8%

btts

yes	19.6%	no	80.4%

total_exact

exact_0	28.5%	exact_1	35.8%	exact_2	22.4%
exact_3	9.4%	exact_4plus	3.9%

Second half range, not a point

1×2

home	48.0%	draw	35.1%	away	16.8%

total

over_0.5	76.9%	under_0.5	23.1%	over_1.5	43.1%
under_1.5	56.9%	over_2.5	18.3%	under_2.5	81.7%

btts

yes	23.5%	no	76.5%

Half-time / full-time range, not a point

H/H	37.5%	H/D	4.1%	H/A	1.0%
D/H	19.0%	D/D	13.9%	D/A	6.7%
A/H	2.9%	A/D	4.6%	A/A	10.4%

Corners range, not a point

total

over_7.5	71.3%	under_7.5	28.7%	over_8.5	59.3%
under_8.5	40.7%	over_9.5	46.9%	under_9.5	53.1%
over_10.5	35.3%	under_10.5	64.7%	over_11.5	25.2%
under_11.5	74.8%	over_12.5	17.2%	under_12.5	82.8%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_3.5	74.7%	under_3.5	25.3%	over_4.5	59.6%
under_4.5	40.4%	over_5.5	44.3%	under_5.5	55.7%

team_away

over_3.5	56.1%	under_3.5	43.9%	over_4.5	38.6%
under_4.5	61.4%	over_5.5	24.3%	under_5.5	75.7%

most

home	58.4%	draw	10.6%	away	31.0%

handicap

home_-3.5	26.6%	away_+3.5	73.4%	home_-1.5	47.2%
away_+1.5	52.8%	home_-0.5	58.4%	away_+0.5	41.6%
home_+0.5	69.0%	away_-0.5	31.0%	home_+1.5	78.2%
away_-1.5	21.8%	home_+3.5	91.0%	away_-3.5	9.0%

Shots range, not a point

total

over_22.5	63.1%	under_22.5	36.9%	over_24.5	50.5%
under_24.5	49.5%	over_26.5	38.2%	under_26.5	61.9%
over_28.5	27.1%	under_28.5	72.9%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_10.5	76.9%	under_10.5	23.1%	over_12.5	61.5%
under_12.5	38.5%	over_14.5	45.1%	under_14.5	54.9%

team_away

over_10.5	48.5%	under_10.5	51.5%	over_12.5	30.6%
under_12.5	69.5%	over_14.5	17.2%	under_14.5	82.8%

most

home	68.4%	draw	5.5%	away	26.1%

handicap

home_-4.5	43.4%	away_+4.5	56.6%	home_-2.5	56.2%
away_+2.5	43.8%	home_-0.5	68.4%	away_+0.5	31.6%
home_+0.5	73.9%	away_-0.5	26.1%	home_+2.5	83.2%
away_-2.5	16.8%	home_+4.5	90.0%	away_-4.5	10.0%

Shots on target range, not a point

total

over_6.5	77.2%	under_6.5	22.8%	over_7.5	65.7%
under_7.5	34.3%	over_8.5	53.2%	under_8.5	46.8%
over_9.5	40.9%	under_9.5	59.1%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_3.5	75.7%	under_3.5	24.3%	over_4.5	60.1%
under_4.5	40.0%	over_5.5	43.9%	under_5.5	56.1%

team_away

over_3.5	48.4%	under_3.5	51.6%	over_4.5	30.3%
under_4.5	69.7%	over_5.5	17.0%	under_5.5	83.0%

most

home	64.5%	draw	11.2%	away	24.3%

handicap

home_-2.5	39.4%	away_+2.5	60.6%	home_-0.5	64.5%
away_+0.5	35.5%	home_+0.5	75.7%	away_-0.5	24.3%
home_+2.5	91.1%	away_-2.5	8.9%

Cards calibrated

total

over_2.5	79.7%	under_2.5	20.3%	over_3.5	62.1%
under_3.5	37.9%	over_4.5	43.5%	under_4.5	56.5%
over_5.5	27.5%	under_5.5	72.6%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_1.5	56.1%	under_1.5	43.9%	over_2.5	30.0%
under_2.5	70.0%

team_away

over_1.5	68.5%	under_1.5	31.5%	over_2.5	43.4%
under_2.5	56.6%

most

home	31.4%	draw	18.9%	away	49.8%

handicap

home_-1.5	16.6%	away_+1.5	83.4%	home_-0.5	31.4%
away_+0.5	68.6%	home_+0.5	50.2%	away_-0.5	49.8%
home_+1.5	68.7%	away_-1.5	31.3%

Fouls calibrated

total

over_20.5	74.1%	under_20.5	25.9%	over_22.5	61.0%
under_22.5	39.0%	over_24.5	47.1%	under_24.5	52.9%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_9.5	64.0%	under_9.5	36.0%	over_11.5	43.2%
under_11.5	56.8%	over_13.5	25.3%	under_13.5	74.7%

team_away

over_9.5	80.7%	under_9.5	19.3%	over_11.5	63.8%
under_11.5	36.2%	over_13.5	45.1%	under_13.5	54.9%

most

home	32.2%	draw	6.6%	away	61.2%

handicap

home_-3.5	16.0%	away_+3.5	84.0%	home_-0.5	32.2%
away_+0.5	67.8%	home_+2.5	52.8%	away_-2.5	47.2%

Red card range, not a point

any

yes	14.2%	no	85.8%

home

yes	7.9%	no	92.1%

away

yes	6.8%	no	93.2%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55416 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Betis predictions · Osasuna predictions · La Liga

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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