La Liga
Real Madrid vs 
Villarreal Corners
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 9.5 corners at 51.1%, its strongest read on the Corners market. The total-corners ladder runs from 75.7% for over 7.5 to 21.2% for over 12.5, with over 9.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 52.6%. Head to head on corners, Real Madrid are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 60.2%, with a level count at 10.1%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Corners
Total corners, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 75.7% | 24.3% |
| 8.5 corners | 64.6% | 35.4% |
| 9.5 corners | 52.6% | 47.4% |
| 10.5 corners | 40.8% | 59.2% |
| 11.5 corners | 30.2% | 69.8% |
| 12.5 corners | 21.2% | 78.8% |
Who wins the corner count
Team corner lines
78.3%
64.2%
49.3%
58.4%
40.9%
26.3%
Corner handicap
| Real Madrid line | Real Madrid | Villarreal |
|---|---|---|
| -3.5 | 29.0% | 71.0% |
| -1.5 | 49.5% | 50.5% |
| -0.5 | 60.2% | 39.8% |
| +0.5 | 70.3% | 29.7% |
This season (2026/27)
7.8Real Madrid corners won per game4.3Real Madrid corners conceded per game7.3Villarreal corners won per game4.2Villarreal corners conceded per gameThe corners market rewards teams that camp in the final third, below are the model total-corner probabilities. More corners are projected for Real Madrid.
In-depth analysis
These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.
52.6%Over 9.5 corners64.2%Real Madrid over 4.5 corners40.9%Villarreal over 4.5 corners50.0%Odd corner totalFor the team lines, Real Madrid over 4.5 corners sits at 64.2% and Villarreal at 40.9%. This season Real Madrid have averaged 7.8 corners won a game and Villarreal 7.3.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many corners in Real Madrid vs Villarreal?
The model rates over 9.5 total corners at 52.6% for Real Madrid vs Villarreal.
Which team will win the corner count in Real Madrid vs Villarreal?
The model rates Real Madrid to win the corner count at 60.2%, with a level count at 10.1%.
How many corners do Real Madrid and Villarreal average this season?
Real Madrid have won 7.8 corners a game this season and Villarreal 7.3.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 23,762 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Corners actually happened 54.2% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 21 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Corners calls
Our most recent Corners calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More La Liga, Corners
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
