Santander vs Valencia prediction & probabilities (2026-10-11)

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Santander vs Valencia: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 22 Sep 2026

La Liga
Santander

WLWLL

Sun, 11 Oct 202611/1020:00UK
Valencia

LLLWL

Model’s top convictions

72%

Over 1.5 goals

69%

Santander or draw

61%

Over 8.5 corners

Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Model pick

Santander40.4%

Win probability · fair 2.48

Top signals

Over 1.5 goalsLikely71.9%Fair 1.39
Santander or drawLikely68.9%Fair 1.45
Over 8.5 cornersLikely60.7%Fair 1.65

Model read

Little between these two in the data. Santander at 40% is as close to a call as the model will offer for 11 October 2026. No strong lean on goals (46% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. The run in: Santander arrive W2 D0 L4, Valencia W1 D0 L5. Santander are newly promoted, a profile the model deliberately prices with caution. Pablo García drives the home shot volume, 1.3 on target per 90. The engine passes on this one (no bookmaker price published for this match yet).

Value & higher-risk angles

Outcomes the model rates higher than the obvious price suggests, plus a few long-shot scorelines that are simply possible. These are the least likely calls on the page, so treat them as such. They are not tips, and we do not beat the sharp bookmakers.

High risk

Over 2.5 goals45.6%@ 2.19
Over 10.5 corners39.6%@ 2.53
Valencia win31.1%@ 3.22
Medium risk

Draw or Valencia59.6%@ 1.68
Under 2.5 goals54.4%@ 1.84
Both teams to score51.4%@ 1.95
Random finds

1-1 correct score13.4%@ 7.45
1-0 correct score10.2%@ 9.85
0-1 correct score9.1%@ 11.01

Model vs market

Santander

40.4%

Draw

28.5%

Valencia

31.1%

Model

no bookmaker price published for this match yet

Goals

Over 1.5Strongest read · Likely71.9%Fair 1.39
Over 2.5Close call45.6%Fair 2.19
BTTS · YesClose call51.4%Fair 1.95

Corners

Over 8.5 cornersLikely60.7%Fair 1.65
Over 9.5 cornersClose call49.9%Fair 2.00
Over 10.5 cornersUnlikely39.6%Fair 2.53
Over 11.5 cornersUnlikely30.3%Fair 3.30
Most cornersSantander53.7%Valencia35.5%

Shots

Over 22.5 shotsLikely61.6%Fair 1.62
Over 24.5 shotsClose call48.9%Fair 2.04
Over 26.5 shotsUnlikely36.7%Fair 2.73
Over 28.5 shotsLong shot25.9%Fair 3.86

Recent shot volume

Santander9.2 taken17.5 faced
Valencia11.0 taken16.7 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

First half / second half shots

Shots before and after the break, per game, across the number of games in brackets. The bar shows how much of the shooting happens in the first half. These come from a different source than the match shot totals above, and we only count a match when the shots before the break add up to the actual half-time score. A match where they did not is left out rather than guessed at, which is why the two sets of numbers can differ.

Santander (6 games)

4.2 / 5.2

Valencia (6 games)

4.0 / 7.2

Totals line guide

0.5·1.571.9%2.545.6%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.571.9%

Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Form & head-to-head

SantanderWLWLL
ValenciaLLLWL

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

SantanderValencia
League position#16 of 20#19 of 20
Record W-D-L2-1-41-1-5
Current streakL2L1
Points per game1.000.57
Record, home vs away2-1-01-0-2
PPG, home vs away2.331.00
Goals scored per game1.570.57
Goals conceded per game3.001.86
Scored, home vs away2.330.67
Conceded, home vs away1.671.33
1st half goals per game1.290.14
2nd half goals per game0.290.43
Corners won per game4.34.4
Cards per game2.72.0
Fouls per game14.310.6
Red cards this season10
Shots per game10.310.6
Shots faced per game16.715.3
Shots on target per game4.02.7
1st half shots per game5.04.1
2nd half shots per game5.46.6
xG for per game1.400.81
xG against per game2.281.81
Over 2.5 rate

85.7%42.9%

BTTS rate

71.4%28.6%

Clean sheets

0.0%28.6%

Rates this season:SantanderValencia

League averages this season: 3.04 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 56% · BTTS in 58%. Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Pablo GarcíaSantander · key player
To score7.9%12.66
1+ on target31.2%3.21
2+ shots24.9%4.02
Shots/90 3.25SoT/90 1.27Goals/90 0.28
Harvey ElliottValencia · key player
To score3.9%25.64
1+ on target18.2%5.49
2+ shots23.5%4.26
Shots/90 4.17SoT/90 0.91Goals/90 0.18
Sergio CanalesSantander · in form
To score13.0%7.69
1+ on target50.9%1.96
2+ shots55.4%1.81
Shots/90 2.27SoT/90 0.87Goals/90 0.17
Umar SadiqValencia · in form
To score19.5%5.13
1+ on target35.2%2.84
2+ shots32.7%3.06
Shots/90 2.38SoT/90 0.88Goals/90 0.44
Jorge SalinasSantander · in form
To score0.0%·
1+ on target24.7%4.05
2+ shots3.3%30.30
Shots/90 0.33SoT/90 0.33Goals/90 0
Arnaut Danjuma GroeneveldValencia · in form
To score8.3%12.05
1+ on target41.8%2.39
2+ shots38.0%2.63
Shots/90 2.12SoT/90 0.87Goals/90 0.14

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Santander win2.56
Draw3.55
Valencia win3.05
Both teams to score1.94

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.10
Over 1.5 goals1.39
Over 2.5 goals2.19
Over 3.5 goals4.12
Santander most2.56
Valencia most3.05

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.34
Over 8.5 corners1.58
Over 9.5 corners1.95
Over 10.5 corners2.53
Santander most1.86
Valencia most2.81

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.26
Over 3.5 cards1.61
Over 4.5 cards2.29
Over 5.5 cards3.62
Santander most2.55
Valencia most2.41

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.35
Over 7.5 SoT1.62
Over 8.5 SoT2.05
Over 9.5 SoT2.74
Santander most1.81
Valencia most3.10

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.62
Over 24.5 shots2.04
Over 26.5 shots2.73
Over 28.5 shots3.86
Santander most1.57
Valencia most3.29

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.29
Over 22.5 fouls1.54
Over 24.5 fouls1.95
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 61.6% Over 24.5 48.9% Over 26.5 36.7% Over 28.5 25.9%
Most: Santander 63.7% Most: Valencia 30.4%
Santander Over 13.2 48.8% Valencia Over 13.2 25.5%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 73.9% Over 7.5 61.6% Over 8.5 48.7% Over 9.5 36.5%
Most: Santander 55.1% Most: Valencia 32.3%
Santander Over 4.2 50.8% Valencia Over 4.2 34.3%

Cards

Over 2.5 79.6% Over 3.5 62.2% Over 4.5 43.6%
Most: Santander 39.3% Most: Valencia 41.5%
Santander Over 1.8 61.9% Valencia Over 1.8 63.4%

Santander: players to watch (recent-form projection)

Each number is the player’s recent rate per 90 minutes, scaled to how long we expect them to play. Only players in this season’s squad appear. It is a projection from recent form, not a confirmed lineup: nobody has announced the team yet.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Pablo García 3.25 1.27 0.28 31.2% 24.9% 7.9%
Sergio Canales 2.27 0.87 0.17 50.9% 55.4% 13.0%
Jorge Salinas 0.33 0.33 0 24.7% 3.3% 0.0%
André Almeida 0.82 0.22 0 12.2% 8.5% 0.0%
Asier Villalibre 1.35 0.19 0 5.0% 5.3% 0.0%

Valencia: players to watch (recent-form projection)

Each number is the player’s recent rate per 90 minutes, scaled to how long we expect them to play. Only players in this season’s squad appear. It is a projection from recent form, not a confirmed lineup: nobody has announced the team yet.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Harvey Elliott 4.17 0.91 0.18 18.2% 23.5% 3.9%
Umar Sadiq 2.38 0.88 0.44 35.2% 32.7% 19.5%
Arnaut Danjuma Groeneveld 2.12 0.87 0.14 41.8% 38.0% 8.3%
Raba 2.2 0.71 0.35 33.2% 35.5% 18.0%
Hugo Duro 1.71 0.62 0.42 32.9% 30.1% 23.7%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Worked out from the scoreline grid above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the other side fails to score. It is the model’s own percentage, scored against the result afterwards, and it is not a tip.

Santander clean sheet 30.5%
Valencia clean sheet 26.8%
Santander win to nil 21.7%
Valencia win to nil 18.0%

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

The model’s own percentages, with no odds attached. The smaller markets are here so you can see everything we hold a number on, not because we claim an advantage in them. The colour says how close our percentages have landed to reality on matches the model had never seen.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 39.0% draw 28.2% away 32.8%
double_chance
1X 67.2% 12 71.8% X2 61.0%
dnb
home 54.3% away 45.7%
btts
yes 51.4% no 48.6%
clean_sheet
home 30.6% away 26.8%
win_to_nil
home 21.7% away 18.0%
winning_margin
home_by_1 21.1% home_by_2 11.6% home_by_3plus 6.4%
away_by_1 18.9% away_by_2 9.4% away_by_3plus 4.5%
correct_score
0-0 8.8% 0-1 9.1% 0-2 5.8%
0-3 2.3% 0-4 0.7% 0-5 0.2%
1-0 10.2% 1-1 13.4% 1-2 7.6%
1-3 3.0% 1-4 0.9% 1-5 0.2%
2-0 7.1% 2-1 8.4% 2-2 5.0%
2-3 2.0% 2-4 0.6% 2-5 0.1%
3-0 3.1% 3-1 3.7% 3-2 2.2%
3-3 0.9% 3-4 0.3% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 1.0% 4-1 1.2% 4-2 0.7%
4-3 0.3% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.3% 5-1 0.3% 5-2 0.2%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.4%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 13.4%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 91.2% under_0.5 8.8% over_1.5 71.9%
under_1.5 28.1% over_2.5 45.7% under_2.5 54.4%
over_3.5 24.3% under_3.5 75.7% over_4.5 10.9%
under_4.5 89.1% over_5.5 4.2% under_5.5 95.8%
odd_even
odd 48.4% even 51.6%
team_home
over_0.5 73.2% under_0.5 26.8% over_1.5 37.9%
under_1.5 62.1% over_2.5 14.7% under_2.5 85.3%
team_away
over_0.5 69.4% under_0.5 30.6% over_1.5 33.2%
under_1.5 66.8% over_2.5 11.7% under_2.5 88.3%
most
home 39.0% draw 28.2% away 32.8%
handicap
home_-2.5 6.4% away_+2.5 93.6% home_-1.5 18.0%
away_+1.5 82.0% home_-0.5 39.0% away_+0.5 61.0%
home_+0.5 67.2% away_-0.5 32.8% home_+1.5 86.1%
away_-1.5 13.9% home_+2.5 95.5% away_-2.5 4.5%
total_exact
exact_0 8.8% exact_1 19.2% exact_2 26.3%
exact_3 21.4% exact_4 13.4% exact_5 6.7%
exact_6 2.8% exact_7plus 1.4%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 44.7% draw 33.9% away 21.5%
total
over_0.5 80.3% under_0.5 19.7% over_1.5 48.4%
under_1.5 51.7% over_2.5 22.3% under_2.5 77.7%
btts
yes 29.1% no 70.9%
total_exact
exact_0 19.7% exact_1 32.0% exact_2 26.0%
exact_3 14.1% exact_4plus 8.3%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 26.1% draw 34.1% away 39.7%
total
over_0.5 81.0% under_0.5 19.0% over_1.5 49.5%
under_1.5 50.5% over_2.5 23.3% under_2.5 76.7%
btts
yes 31.2% no 68.8%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 32.0% H/D 8.2% H/A 4.6%
D/H 8.9% D/D 11.6% D/A 13.5%
A/H 1.3% A/D 3.3% A/A 16.9%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 74.6% under_7.5 25.4% over_8.5 63.3%
under_8.5 36.7% over_9.5 51.2% under_9.5 48.8%
over_10.5 39.5% under_10.5 60.6% over_11.5 29.0%
under_11.5 71.0% over_12.5 20.3% under_12.5 79.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 74.2% under_3.5 25.8% over_4.5 59.0%
under_4.5 41.0% over_5.5 43.7% under_5.5 56.3%
team_away
over_3.5 62.3% under_3.5 37.7% over_4.5 45.2%
under_4.5 54.8% over_5.5 30.2% under_5.5 69.8%
most
home 53.8% draw 10.6% away 35.6%
handicap
home_-3.5 23.7% away_+3.5 76.3% home_-1.5 43.0%
away_+1.5 57.0% home_-0.5 53.8% away_+0.5 46.2%
home_+0.5 64.5% away_-0.5 35.6% home_+1.5 74.0%
away_-1.5 26.0% home_+3.5 88.3% away_-3.5 11.8%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 61.6% under_22.5 38.4% over_24.5 48.9%
under_24.5 51.1% over_26.5 36.7% under_26.5 63.3%
over_28.5 25.9% under_28.5 74.1%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 73.6% under_10.5 26.4% over_12.5 57.2%
under_12.5 42.8% over_14.5 40.7% under_14.5 59.3%
team_away
over_10.5 51.2% under_10.5 48.8% over_12.5 33.1%
under_12.5 66.9% over_14.5 19.1% under_14.5 80.9%
most
home 63.7% draw 5.9% away 30.4%
handicap
home_-4.5 38.4% away_+4.5 61.6% home_-2.5 51.1%
away_+2.5 48.9% home_-0.5 63.7% away_+0.5 36.3%
home_+0.5 69.6% away_-0.5 30.4% home_+2.5 79.9%
away_-2.5 20.1% home_+4.5 87.7% away_-4.5 12.3%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 73.9% under_6.5 26.2% over_7.5 61.6%
under_7.5 38.4% over_8.5 48.7% under_8.5 51.3%
over_9.5 36.5% under_9.5 63.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 68.2% under_3.5 31.8% over_4.5 50.8%
under_4.5 49.2% over_5.5 34.6% under_5.5 65.4%
team_away
over_3.5 52.6% under_3.5 47.4% over_4.5 34.3%
under_4.5 65.8% over_5.5 20.1% under_5.5 79.9%
most
home 55.1% draw 12.6% away 32.3%
handicap
home_-2.5 30.0% away_+2.5 70.1% home_-0.5 55.1%
away_+0.5 44.9% home_+0.5 67.7% away_-0.5 32.3%
home_+2.5 86.8% away_-2.5 13.2%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 79.6% under_2.5 20.4% over_3.5 62.2%
under_3.5 37.8% over_4.5 43.7% under_4.5 56.4%
over_5.5 27.6% under_5.5 72.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 61.9% under_1.5 38.1% over_2.5 36.0%
under_2.5 64.0%
team_away
over_1.5 63.4% under_1.5 36.6% over_2.5 37.7%
under_2.5 62.3%
most
home 39.3% draw 19.2% away 41.5%
handicap
home_-1.5 22.6% away_+1.5 77.4% home_-0.5 39.3%
away_+0.5 60.8% home_+0.5 58.5% away_-0.5 41.5%
home_+1.5 75.6% away_-1.5 24.4%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 77.3% under_20.5 22.8% over_22.5 64.9%
under_22.5 35.1% over_24.5 51.3% under_24.5 48.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 75.2% under_9.5 24.8% over_11.5 56.4%
under_11.5 43.6% over_13.5 37.4% under_13.5 62.6%
team_away
over_9.5 75.9% under_9.5 24.1% over_11.5 57.4%
under_11.5 42.6% over_13.5 38.4% under_13.5 61.7%
most
home 45.8% draw 6.9% away 47.2%
handicap
home_-3.5 26.6% away_+3.5 73.5% home_-0.5 45.8%
away_+0.5 54.2% home_+2.5 66.2% away_-2.5 33.8%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 24.1% no 75.9%
home
yes 15.6% no 84.4%
away
yes 10.1% no 89.9%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0097 (55560 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Santander predictions · Valencia predictions · La Liga

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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