La Liga
Alaves vs 
Ath Madrid Corners
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 9.5 corners at 50.0%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Across the lines, the model goes from 74.7% for over 7.5 to 20.2% for over 12.5, with over 9.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 51.3%. Between the two sides, Alaves are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 54.5%, with a level count at 10.6%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Corners
Total corners, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 74.7% | 25.3% |
| 8.5 corners | 63.4% | 36.6% |
| 9.5 corners | 51.3% | 48.7% |
| 10.5 corners | 39.5% | 60.5% |
| 11.5 corners | 29.0% | 71.1% |
| 12.5 corners | 20.2% | 79.8% |
Who wins the corner count
Team corner lines
74.7%
59.6%
44.3%
61.9%
44.7%
29.7%
Corner handicap
| Alaves line | Alaves | Ath Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 43.6% | 56.4% |
| -0.5 | 54.5% | 45.5% |
| +0.5 | 65.1% | 34.9% |
| +1.5 | 74.6% | 25.4% |
This season (2026/27)
4.8Alaves corners won per game5.2Alaves corners conceded per game5.3Ath Madrid corners won per game3.3Ath Madrid corners conceded per gameCorner counts follow pressure and wide play, below are the model total-corner probabilities. The model edges Alaves.
In-depth analysis
These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.
51.3%Over 9.5 corners59.6%Alaves over 4.5 corners44.7%Ath Madrid over 4.5 corners50.0%Odd corner totalFor the team lines, Alaves over 4.5 corners sits at 59.6% and Ath Madrid at 44.7%. This season Alaves have averaged 4.8 corners won a game and Ath Madrid 5.3.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many corners in Alaves vs Ath Madrid?
The model rates over 9.5 total corners at 51.3% for Alaves vs Ath Madrid.
Which team will win the corner count in Alaves vs Ath Madrid?
The model rates Alaves to win the corner count at 54.5%, with a level count at 10.6%.
How many corners do Alaves and Ath Madrid average this season?
Alaves have won 4.8 corners a game this season and Ath Madrid 5.3.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 23,762 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Corners actually happened 54.2% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 21 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Corners calls
Our most recent Corners calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More La Liga, Corners
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
