AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

Ligue 1
RennesRennesWWLWL
Full time3-0Sun, 25 Oct 202625/1016:15UK15°C · Cloudy
StrasbourgStrasbourgWDLLL

Rennes 3-0 Strasbourg cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined50.3%
Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined49.7%

Result

Rennes3-0Strasbourg
4 yellow cardsRennes 1, Strasbourg 3
0 red cardsRennes 0, Strasbourg 0
Under 3.5No

We called Under 3.5 at 50.3% and it missed (4 in the match). We called No at 84.0% and it landed (0 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards49.7%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

Ruddy Buquet

Recorded match referee.

Ruddy Buquet in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 26 5
Goals 3.08 3.00
Yellow cards 3.19 3.40
Red cards 0.12 0.20
Corners 8.8 9.0
Fouls 23.7 23.6
Both teams scored 58% 40%
Over 2.5 goals 73% 80%
Home wins 46% 60%
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
25 Oct 2026 Rennes vs Strasbourg 3-0 3 No 4 0 6 27
10 Oct 2026 Monaco vs Toulouse 2-2 4 Yes 4 0 8 26
12 Sep 2026 Le Havre vs Angers 0-0 0 No 2 0 10 28
4 Sep 2026 Lyon vs Auxerre 3-1 4 Yes 4 0 14 19
21 Aug 2026 Marseille vs Strasbourg 4-0 4 No 3 1 7 18
29 May 2026 Nice vs St Etienne 4-1 5 Yes 2 Not available 10 15
17 May 2026 Marseille vs Rennes 3-1 4 Yes 4 0 15 21
9 May 2026 Bastia vs Le MansLigue 2 0-2 2 No 6 0 5 27
2 May 2026 Metz vs Monaco 1-2 3 Yes 2 0 14 25
25 Apr 2026 Lyon vs Auxerre 3-2 5 Yes 3 0 9 26

Ruddy Buquet referee stats

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Rennes vs Strasbourg. Slightly more cards are projected for Strasbourg for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 70.8% 29.2%
3.5 cards 49.7% 50.3%
4.5 cards 30.5% 69.5%
5.5 cards 16.4% 83.6%

Who picks up more cards

Rennes
34.7%
Level
21.6%
Strasbourg
43.7%

Team cards lines

Rennes

Over 1.5
51.2%
Over 2.5
24.7%

Strasbourg

Over 1.5
57.8%
Over 2.5
30.8%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Rennes's; Strasbourg gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Rennes line Rennes Strasbourg
-1.5 17.4% 82.6%
-0.5 34.7% 65.3%
+0.5 56.3% 43.7%
+1.5 75.8% 24.2%

Red card

Any red card16.0%
Rennes red card3.8%
Strasbourg red card12.7%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 70.7% 29.3%
22.5 fouls 56.7% 43.3%
24.5 fouls 42.3% 57.7%
RennesRennes

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Rennes at home and Strasbourg away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

StrasbourgStrasbourg
Statistic
Rennes
Strasbourg
Yellow cards per game
1.8
1.6

First-half yellow cards per game
0.6
0.4

Second-half yellow cards per game
1.2
1.2

Matches with card data
1
3

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 10,293 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.5% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 49.7%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 70.8% for over 2.5 to 16.4% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 49.7%. Head to head on cards, Strasbourg are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 43.7%, with a level count at 21.6%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.

In-depth analysis

Split by side, Rennes over 1.5 cards sits at 51.2% and Strasbourg at 57.8%. A red card for either side is rated at 16.0% (Rennes 3.8%, Strasbourg 12.7%).

We publish the model, not a sure thing. We score every call against the result after the match.

49.7%Over 3.5 cards
16.0%Any red card
43.7%Most cards: Strasbourg
51.2%Rennes over 1.5 cards
57.8%Strasbourg over 1.5 cards
56.7%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 49.7% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 16.0%, a low-probability event, but one that reshapes every line when it lands.
The DisciplinarianStrasbourg are the pick to collect more cards at 43.7%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 3.5 cards: over sits at 49.7%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
RennesRennes

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

StrasbourgStrasbourg
Statistic
Rennes
Strasbourg
fouls per game
13.2
11.8

Bar scales · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Rennes vs Strasbourg?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 49.7% for Rennes vs Strasbourg.
Will there be a red card in Rennes vs Strasbourg?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 16.0%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Rennes vs Strasbourg?
Before kickoff, the model rated Strasbourg to pick up more cards at 43.7%, with a level count at 21.6%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

Ligue 1Rennes fixtures and statsStrasbourg fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.