AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 13 Oct 2026

Bundesliga
RB LeipzigRB LeipzigLWLWL
Full time6-0Sat, 10 Oct 202610/1017:30UK14°C · Cloudy
Ein FrankfurtEin FrankfurtDDLWD

RB Leipzig 6-0 Eintracht Frankfurt cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined53.6%
Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined46.4%

Result

RB Leipzig6-0Ein Frankfurt
4 yellow cardsRB Leipzig 1, Ein Frankfurt 3
0 red cardsRB Leipzig 0, Ein Frankfurt 0
Under 3.5No

We called Under 3.5 at 53.6% and it missed (4 in the match). We called No at 94.7% and it landed (0 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards46.4%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for RB Leipzig vs Ein Frankfurt. The model leans toward Ein Frankfurt for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 68.0% 32.0%
3.5 cards 46.4% 53.6%
4.5 cards 27.5% 72.5%
5.5 cards 14.3% 85.7%

Who picks up more cards

RB Leipzig
35.1%
Level
22.2%
Ein Frankfurt
42.8%

Team cards lines

RB Leipzig

Over 1.5
49.4%
Over 2.5
23.2%

Ein Frankfurt

Over 1.5
55.1%
Over 2.5
28.2%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is RB Leipzig's; Ein Frankfurt gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

RB Leipzig line RB Leipzig Ein Frankfurt
-1.5 17.4% 82.6%
-0.5 35.1% 64.9%
+0.5 57.3% 42.8%
+1.5 76.9% 23.1%

Red card

Any red card5.3%
RB Leipzig red card2.3%
Ein Frankfurt red card3.1%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 45.7% 54.3%
22.5 fouls 33.7% 66.3%
24.5 fouls 23.6% 76.4%

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 10,293 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.5% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 46.4%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 68.0% for over 2.5 to 14.3% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 46.4%. Head to head on cards, Ein Frankfurt are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 42.8%, with a level count at 22.2%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.

In-depth analysis

Split by side, RB Leipzig over 1.5 cards sits at 49.4% and Ein Frankfurt at 55.1%. A red card for either side is rated at 5.3% (RB Leipzig 2.3%, Ein Frankfurt 3.1%).

Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. We score every call against the result after the match.

46.4%Over 3.5 cards
5.3%Any red card
42.8%Most cards: Ein Frankfurt
49.4%RB Leipzig over 1.5 cards
55.1%Ein Frankfurt over 1.5 cards
33.7%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 46.4% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 5.3%, unlikely, and priced as such.
The DisciplinarianEin Frankfurt are the pick to collect more cards at 42.8%, bookings follow the side defending under pressure.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 3.5 cards: over sits at 46.4%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.

FAQ

How many cards in RB Leipzig vs Ein Frankfurt?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 46.4% for RB Leipzig vs Ein Frankfurt.
Will there be a red card in RB Leipzig vs Ein Frankfurt?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 5.3%.
Which team will pick up more cards in RB Leipzig vs Ein Frankfurt?
Before kickoff, the model rated Ein Frankfurt to pick up more cards at 42.8%, with a level count at 22.2%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Cards predictions today

Related

BundesligaRB Leipzig fixtures and statsEintracht Frankfurt fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.