Real Madrid vs Villarreal prediction & probabilities (2026-10-10)

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Real Madrid vs Villarreal: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 21 Sep 2026

La Liga
Real Madrid

WWLWW

Sat, 10 Oct 202610/1020:00UK
Villarreal

DLLLW

Model’s top convictions

86%

Over 1.5 goals

84%

Real Madrid or draw

67%

Over 2.5 goals

Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Model pick

Real Madrid67.3%

Win probability · fair 1.49

Top signals

Over 1.5 goalsVery likely86.3%Fair 1.16
Real Madrid or drawVery likely83.9%Fair 1.19
Over 2.5 goalsLikely66.9%Fair 1.49

Model read

Real Madrid go into this La Liga meeting with Villarreal on 10 October 2026 as clear favourites; our model has them at 67%. The goals profile is lively: Over 2.5 sits at 67% with both teams to score at 61%. Head to head, the last 5 meetings gave 4 wins for Real Madrid, 1 draws and 0 for Villarreal, averaging 3.8 goals a game. Recent form reads W5 D0 L1 for Real Madrid against W1 D2 L3 for Villarreal. For shots markets, Kylian Mbappe-Lottin is the obvious watch at 2.4 on target per 90 in recent data. Verdict: no bet. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Value & higher-risk angles

Outcomes the model rates higher than the obvious price suggests, plus a few long-shot scorelines that are simply possible. These are the least likely calls on the page, so treat them as such. They are not tips, and we do not beat the sharp bookmakers.

High risk

Over 10.5 corners40.8%@ 2.45
Draw or Villarreal32.7%@ 3.06
Over 11.5 corners31.4%@ 3.18
Medium risk

Over 8.5 corners61.8%@ 1.62
Both teams to score61.4%@ 1.63
Over 9.5 corners51.1%@ 1.96
Random finds

2-1 correct score9.7%@ 10.36
1-1 correct score8.8%@ 11.42
2-0 correct score8.5%@ 11.71

Model vs market

Real Madrid

67.3%

Draw

16.6%

Villarreal

16.1%

Model

no bookmaker price published for this match yet

Goals

Over 1.5Strongest read · Very likely86.3%Fair 1.16
Over 2.5Likely66.9%Fair 1.49
BTTS · YesLikely61.4%Fair 1.63

Corners

Over 8.5 cornersLikely61.8%Fair 1.62
Over 9.5 cornersClose call51.1%Fair 1.96
Over 10.5 cornersUnlikely40.8%Fair 2.45
Over 11.5 cornersUnlikely31.4%Fair 3.18
Most cornersReal Madrid60.1%Villarreal29.6%

Shots

Over 22.5 shotsLikely68.0%Fair 1.47
Over 24.5 shotsClose call55.8%Fair 1.79
Over 26.5 shotsUnlikely43.4%Fair 2.30
Over 28.5 shotsUnlikely31.8%Fair 3.14

Recent shot volume

Real Madrid20.7 taken11.8 faced
Villarreal15.2 taken14.0 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

First half / second half shots

Shots before and after the break, per game, across the number of games in brackets. The bar shows how much of the shooting happens in the first half. These come from a different source than the match shot totals above, and we only count a match when the shots before the break add up to the actual half-time score. A match where they did not is left out rather than guessed at, which is why the two sets of numbers can differ.

Real Madrid (6 games)

10.2 / 10.5

Villarreal (5 games)

7.2 / 7.6

Totals line guide

0.5·1.586.3%2.566.9%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 2.566.9%

Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Form & head-to-head

Real MadridWWLWW
VillarrealDLLLW

Last 5 meetings: Real Madrid 4 · 1 draws · Villarreal 0 · 3.8 goals/game.

2026-01-24Villarreal 0-2 Real Madrid
2025-10-04Real Madrid 3-1 Villarreal
2025-03-15Villarreal 1-2 Real Madrid
2024-10-05Real Madrid 2-0 Villarreal
2024-05-19Villarreal 4-4 Real Madrid

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

Real MadridVillarreal
League position#2 of 20#15 of 20
Record W-D-L5-0-11-2-3
Current streakW2W1
Points per game2.500.83
Record, home vs away3-0-01-2-1
PPG, home vs away3.001.25
Goals scored per game2.831.67
Goals conceded per game1.001.83
Scored, home vs away4.001.75
Conceded, home vs away0.671.50
1st half goals per game1.671.00
2nd half goals per game1.170.67
Corners won per game7.87.3
Cards per game1.81.7
Fouls per game8.811.0
Red cards this season00
Shots per game20.715.2
Shots faced per game11.814.0
Shots on target per game8.36.5
1st half shots per game10.27.2
2nd half shots per game10.57.6
xG for per game3.212.55
xG against per game0.901.75
Over 2.5 rate

83.3%83.3%

BTTS rate

66.7%83.3%

Clean sheets

16.7%0.0%

Rates this season:Real MadridVillarreal

League averages this season: 3.08 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 57% · BTTS in 57%. Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Kylian Mbappe-LottinReal Madrid · key player
To score59.2%1.69
1+ on target89.9%1.11
2+ shots95.1%1.05
Shots/90 5SoT/90 2.41Goals/90 0.94
Georges MikautadzeVillarreal · key player
To score30.9%3.24
1+ on target59.6%1.68
2+ shots57.9%1.73
Shots/90 3.26SoT/90 1.52Goals/90 0.62
Carlos EspíReal Madrid · in form
To score36.0%2.78
1+ on target60.5%1.65
2+ shots62.2%1.61
Shots/90 4.1SoT/90 1.81Goals/90 0.87
Ayoze PérezVillarreal · in form
To score31.0%3.23
1+ on target52.7%1.90
2+ shots53.6%1.87
Shots/90 2.86SoT/90 1.19Goals/90 0.59
EndrickReal Madrid · in form
To score13.1%7.63
1+ on target55.3%1.81
2+ shots57.1%1.75
Shots/90 3.95SoT/90 1.66Goals/90 0.29
Gerard MorenoVillarreal · in form
To score28.7%3.48
1+ on target47.0%2.13
2+ shots46.5%2.15
Shots/90 2.69SoT/90 1.09Goals/90 0.58

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Real Madrid win1.58
Draw5.08
Villarreal win5.93
Both teams to score1.63

Goals

Over 1.5 goals1.16
Over 2.5 goals1.49
Over 3.5 goals2.21
Over 4.5 goals3.78
Real Madrid most1.58
Villarreal most5.93

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.32
Over 8.5 corners1.55
Over 9.5 corners1.90
Over 10.5 corners2.45
Real Madrid most1.66
Villarreal most3.37

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.29
Over 3.5 cards1.68
Over 4.5 cards2.46
Over 5.5 cards4.00
Real Madrid most3.21
Villarreal most2.01

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.24
Over 7.5 SoT1.43
Over 8.5 SoT1.73
Over 9.5 SoT2.19
Real Madrid most1.49
Villarreal most4.49

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.47
Over 24.5 shots1.79
Over 26.5 shots2.30
Over 28.5 shots3.14
Real Madrid most1.45
Villarreal most3.86

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.40
Over 22.5 fouls1.72
Over 24.5 fouls2.27
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 68.0% Over 24.5 55.8% Over 26.5 43.4% Over 28.5 31.8%
Most: Real Madrid 68.7% Most: Villarreal 25.9%
Real Madrid Over 13.2 57.3% Villarreal Over 13.2 26.2%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 80.4% Over 7.5 69.8% Over 8.5 57.8% Over 9.5 45.6%
Most: Real Madrid 67.2% Most: Villarreal 22.2%
Real Madrid Over 4.2 64.8% Villarreal Over 4.2 31.4%

Cards

Over 2.5 77.7% Over 3.5 59.4% Over 4.5 40.7%
Most: Real Madrid 31.1% Most: Villarreal 49.6%
Real Madrid Over 1.8 54.0% Villarreal Over 1.8 66.8%

Real Madrid: players to watch (recent-form projection)

Each number is the player’s recent rate per 90 minutes, scaled to how long we expect them to play. Only players in this season’s squad appear. It is a projection from recent form, not a confirmed lineup: nobody has announced the team yet.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Kylian Mbappe-Lottin 5 2.41 0.94 89.9% 95.1% 59.2%
Carlos Espí 4.1 1.81 0.87 60.5% 62.2% 36.0%
Endrick 3.95 1.66 0.29 55.3% 57.1% 13.1%
Vinícius Júnior 3.2 1.27 0.44 66.4% 76.0% 31.5%
Jude Bellingham 2.37 1.01 0.33 57.0% 58.9% 24.1%

Villarreal: players to watch (recent-form projection)

Each number is the player’s recent rate per 90 minutes, scaled to how long we expect them to play. Only players in this season’s squad appear. It is a projection from recent form, not a confirmed lineup: nobody has announced the team yet.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Georges Mikautadze 3.26 1.52 0.62 59.6% 57.9% 30.9%
Ayoze Pérez 2.86 1.19 0.59 52.7% 53.6% 31.0%
Gerard Moreno 2.69 1.09 0.58 47.0% 46.5% 28.7%
Nicolas Pepe 2.41 1.07 0.31 53.5% 51.4% 19.9%
Ilias Akhomach 2.59 0.86 0.06 33.6% 35.0% 2.8%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Worked out from the scoreline grid above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the other side fails to score. It is the model’s own percentage, scored against the result afterwards, and it is not a tip.

Real Madrid clean sheet 31.3%
Villarreal clean sheet 9.9%
Real Madrid win to nil 27.7%
Villarreal win to nil 6.3%

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

The model’s own percentages, with no odds attached. The smaller markets are here so you can see everything we hold a number on, not because we claim an advantage in them. The colour says how close our percentages have landed to reality on matches the model had never seen.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 63.4% draw 19.7% away 16.9%
double_chance
1X 83.1% 12 80.3% X2 36.5%
dnb
home 79.0% away 21.0%
btts
yes 61.4% no 38.6%
clean_sheet
home 32.3% away 9.9%
win_to_nil
home 28.7% away 6.3%
winning_margin
home_by_1 21.9% home_by_2 18.9% home_by_3plus 22.7%
away_by_1 10.5% away_by_2 4.5% away_by_3plus 1.9%
correct_score
0-0 3.6% 0-1 3.2% 0-2 2.0%
0-3 0.8% 0-4 0.2% 0-5 0.1%
1-0 7.0% 1-1 8.8% 1-2 4.7%
1-3 1.8% 1-4 0.5% 1-5 0.1%
2-0 8.5% 2-1 9.7% 2-2 5.5%
2-3 2.1% 2-4 0.6% 2-5 0.1%
3-0 6.6% 3-1 7.4% 3-2 4.2%
3-3 1.6% 3-4 0.4% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 3.8% 4-1 4.3% 4-2 2.4%
4-3 0.9% 4-4 0.3% 4-5 0.1%
5-0 1.8% 5-1 2.0% 5-2 1.1%
5-3 0.4% 5-4 0.1% 5-5 0.0%
other 3.2%
likeliest_score
h 200.0% a 100.0% p 9.7%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 96.4% under_0.5 3.6% over_1.5 86.3%
under_1.5 13.8% over_2.5 66.9% under_2.5 33.1%
over_3.5 45.2% under_3.5 54.8% over_4.5 26.5%
under_4.5 73.5% over_5.5 13.6% under_5.5 86.5%
odd_even
odd 49.1% even 50.9%
team_home
over_0.5 90.1% under_0.5 9.9% over_1.5 67.3%
under_1.5 32.7% over_2.5 40.8% under_2.5 59.2%
team_away
over_0.5 67.7% under_0.5 32.3% over_1.5 31.2%
under_1.5 68.8% over_2.5 10.6% under_2.5 89.4%
most
home 63.4% draw 19.7% away 16.9%
handicap
home_-2.5 22.7% away_+2.5 77.3% home_-1.5 41.6%
away_+1.5 58.4% home_-0.5 63.4% away_+0.5 36.6%
home_+0.5 83.2% away_-0.5 16.9% home_+1.5 93.6%
away_-1.5 6.4% home_+2.5 98.1% away_-2.5 1.9%
total_exact
exact_0 3.6% exact_1 10.2% exact_2 19.3%
exact_3 21.7% exact_4 18.7% exact_5 12.9%
exact_6 7.4% exact_7plus 6.1%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 53.0% draw 29.8% away 17.3%
total
over_0.5 84.2% under_0.5 15.8% over_1.5 55.1%
under_1.5 44.9% over_2.5 28.2% under_2.5 71.8%
btts
yes 31.8% no 68.2%
total_exact
exact_0 15.8% exact_1 29.1% exact_2 26.9%
exact_3 16.6% exact_4plus 11.6%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 50.5% draw 32.3% away 17.2%
total
over_0.5 80.9% under_0.5 19.1% over_1.5 49.2%
under_1.5 50.8% over_2.5 23.1% under_2.5 76.9%
btts
yes 27.7% no 72.3%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 47.5% H/D 4.3% H/A 1.2%
D/H 15.0% D/D 9.6% D/A 5.1%
A/H 3.1% A/D 4.3% A/A 9.9%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 75.7% under_7.5 24.3% over_8.5 64.6%
under_8.5 35.4% over_9.5 52.6% under_9.5 47.4%
over_10.5 40.8% under_10.5 59.2% over_11.5 30.2%
under_11.5 69.8% over_12.5 21.2% under_12.5 78.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 78.3% under_3.5 21.7% over_4.5 64.2%
under_4.5 35.8% over_5.5 49.3% under_5.5 50.7%
team_away
over_3.5 58.4% under_3.5 41.7% over_4.5 40.9%
under_4.5 59.1% over_5.5 26.3% under_5.5 73.7%
most
home 60.2% draw 10.1% away 29.7%
handicap
home_-3.5 29.0% away_+3.5 71.0% home_-1.5 49.5%
away_+1.5 50.5% home_-0.5 60.2% away_+0.5 39.8%
home_+0.5 70.3% away_-0.5 29.7% home_+1.5 79.0%
away_-1.5 21.0% home_+3.5 91.2% away_-3.5 8.8%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 68.0% under_22.5 32.0% over_24.5 55.8%
under_24.5 44.2% over_26.5 43.4% under_26.5 56.6%
over_28.5 31.8% under_28.5 68.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 79.8% under_10.5 20.2% over_12.5 65.3%
under_12.5 34.7% over_14.5 49.2% under_14.5 50.8%
team_away
over_10.5 52.0% under_10.5 48.0% over_12.5 33.8%
under_12.5 66.2% over_14.5 19.7% under_14.5 80.3%
most
home 68.8% draw 5.4% away 25.9%
handicap
home_-4.5 44.3% away_+4.5 55.7% home_-2.5 56.8%
away_+2.5 43.2% home_-0.5 68.8% away_+0.5 31.3%
home_+0.5 74.1% away_-0.5 25.9% home_+2.5 83.2%
away_-2.5 16.8% home_+4.5 90.0% away_-4.5 10.1%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 80.4% under_6.5 19.6% over_7.5 69.8%
under_7.5 30.2% over_8.5 57.8% under_8.5 42.2%
over_9.5 45.6% under_9.5 54.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 79.3% under_3.5 20.7% over_4.5 64.8%
under_4.5 35.2% over_5.5 49.1% under_5.5 50.9%
team_away
over_3.5 49.6% under_3.5 50.4% over_4.5 31.4%
under_4.5 68.6% over_5.5 17.8% under_5.5 82.2%
most
home 67.2% draw 10.5% away 22.3%
handicap
home_-2.5 42.8% away_+2.5 57.2% home_-0.5 67.2%
away_+0.5 32.8% home_+0.5 77.8% away_-0.5 22.3%
home_+2.5 91.9% away_-2.5 8.1%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 77.7% under_2.5 22.3% over_3.5 59.4%
under_3.5 40.6% over_4.5 40.7% under_4.5 59.3%
over_5.5 25.0% under_5.5 75.0%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 54.0% under_1.5 46.0% over_2.5 28.1%
under_2.5 71.9%
team_away
over_1.5 66.9% under_1.5 33.2% over_2.5 41.4%
under_2.5 58.6%
most
home 31.1% draw 19.2% away 49.7%
handicap
home_-1.5 16.2% away_+1.5 83.8% home_-0.5 31.1%
away_+0.5 68.9% home_+0.5 50.3% away_-0.5 49.7%
home_+1.5 69.2% away_-1.5 30.9%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 71.6% under_20.5 28.4% over_22.5 58.1%
under_22.5 41.9% over_24.5 44.0% under_24.5 56.0%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 62.1% under_9.5 37.9% over_11.5 41.1%
under_11.5 58.9% over_13.5 23.5% under_13.5 76.5%
team_away
over_9.5 79.2% under_9.5 20.8% over_11.5 61.7%
under_11.5 38.3% over_13.5 42.8% under_13.5 57.2%
most
home 32.3% draw 6.7% away 61.0%
handicap
home_-3.5 15.9% away_+3.5 84.1% home_-0.5 32.3%
away_+0.5 67.7% home_+2.5 53.1% away_-2.5 46.9%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 16.3% no 83.7%
home
yes 9.2% no 90.8%
away
yes 7.8% no 92.2%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55416 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Real Madrid predictions · Villarreal predictions · La Liga

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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