Manchester CityMan CityWWWWL
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BrightonBrightonWWWWLManchester City vs Brighton shots prediction
Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.
Model read
Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.
Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.
Conviction: Lean
Over 24.5 shots53.8%
Shots prediction
Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.
Shot volume tracks territory and game state more than the scoreline, below are the model total-shot probabilities. It edges Manchester City.
What the model expects
The average number of shots and shots on target each team takes in the model's own distribution for this match, the same distribution the lines below come from. It is an average, not a betting line, and it is a model estimate, not a recorded result.
Treat as a range
| Model expects | Shots | On target |
|---|---|---|
| Manchester City | 13.9 | 4.9 |
| Brighton | 11.6 | 4.0 |
| Both teams | 25.4 | 8.9 |
Total shots
Both teams combined.
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 65.3% | 34.7% |
| 24.5 shots | 53.8% | 46.2% |
| 26.5 shots | 42.4% | 57.6% |
| 28.5 shots | 31.8% | 68.2% |
Who takes more shots
Manchester City
BrightonTeam shots lines
Manchester City
Brighton
Shots on target
Model probabilities for shots on target, both teams combined in the ladder and per team below. A shot on target is one the goalkeeper has to deal with, or a goal.
Not trusted in this league
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 74.3% | 25.7% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 63.1% | 36.9% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 51.3% | 48.7% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 40.0% | 60.0% |
Who has more on target
Manchester CityBrightonTeam shots on target lines
Manchester City
Brighton
Shot handicap
The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Manchester City's; Brighton gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.
| Manchester City line | Manchester City | Brighton |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 37.5% | 62.5% |
| -2.5 | 49.1% | 50.9% |
| -0.5 | 60.7% | 39.3% |
| +0.5 | 66.2% | 33.8% |
Player shots
Model probabilities for each listed player: two or more shots, and at least one shot on target. They come from the player's own shots per 90 minutes this season, scaled to the minutes he has averaged, and they assume he plays. Shots /90 is his recorded rate. Players reported out or suspended are left out. Not bookmaker odds.
| Manchester City | 2+ shots | 1+ on target | Shots /90 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Erling Haaland | 85.3% | 79.8% | 3.53 |
| Phil Foden | 53.8% | 43.6% | 2.52 |
| Enzo Fernández | 54.7% | 52.4% | 1.95 |
| Mathis Cherki | 50.9% | 42.6% | 2.43 |
| Jéremy Doku | 33.0% | 33.7% | 1.92 |
| Brighton | 2+ shots | 1+ on target | Shots /90 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Charalampos Kostoulas | 43.6% | 42.4% | 4.35 |
| Ibrahim Osman | 32.8% | 29.6% | 2.71 |
| Jack Hinshelwood | 30.2% | 40.8% | 1.56 |
| Georginio Rutter | 39.1% | 34.3% | 2.22 |
| Diego Gómez | 36.7% | 33.6% | 1.91 |
Shots stats
Recorded results from league matches, not predictions. A missing value is shown as a dot, never as zero.
This season: average per game in this season's league matches. A value appears only after five matches with shot data; Matches shows how many there were. More shots is the share of matches in which the team took more shots than its opponent.
At home and away: Manchester City in their home matches and Brighton in their away matches this season, the venue each side plays at in this match. A split appears after three matches at that venue.
By half: shots before and after the break, per game. In the Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga, Serie A and Ligue 1 the half split comes from Understat and is used only when the shots before the break match the half-time score; elsewhere it comes from the data provider's half-by-half statistics and is used only when both halves add up to the full-time count. Shots on target per half come from the data provider. The halves can therefore have fewer matches, shown in brackets, than the full-match averages.
By half, at home and away: the same half split, using only Manchester City's home matches and Brighton's away matches.
Last six league matches: the most recent six league matches with shot data, which can include last season. Shown only with at least five matches.
Last six at home and away: Manchester City's last six home league matches and Brighton's last six away league matches, across seasons when needed.
Recorded 2026/27
This season
Manchester City at home, Brighton away
By half, this season
By half, at home and away
Last six league matches
Last six at home and away
League average per match: 27.4 shots, 8.6 on target, 12.1 in the 1st half, 15.3 in the 2nd half.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 13,109 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Shots actually happened 57.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 28 Oct 2026.
Our last 10 Shots calls
Our most recent Shots calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 24.5 shots at 53.8%, its strongest read on the Shots market. The total-shots ladder runs from 65.3% for over 22.5 to 31.8% for over 28.5, with over 24.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 53.8%. Between the two sides, Manchester City are the model’s pick to have more shots at 60.7%, with a level count at 5.5%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.
In-depth analysis
By team, Manchester City over 12.5 shots sits at 58.4% and Brighton at 39.0%. This season Manchester City have averaged 14.6 shots a game and Brighton 17.8. Manchester City take 6.6 shots before half-time and 8.1 after, Brighton 7.3 and 10.6.
These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Manchester City vs Brighton?
Which team will have more shots in Manchester City vs Brighton?
How many shots do Brighton take away from home?
Do Manchester City shoot more in the first or second half?
How is this probability calculated?
Is this a betting tip?
More Premier League, Shots
Related
Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
