AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 24 Oct 2026

Bundesliga
M'gladbachM'gladbachLLLLL
Full time1-2Sun, 18 Oct 202618/1016:30UK10°C · Cloudy
HoffenheimHoffenheimLLWLL

Borussia Monchengladbach 1-2 Hoffenheim expected goals (xg): our prediction vs the result

Recent xG created per game, from recorded matches.

M'gladbach1.56

xG created per game · Last 6 matches

Hoffenheim1.90

xG created per game · Last 6 matches

Result

M'gladbach1-2Hoffenheim
0.76 – 2.17 xGUnderstat

The match produced 0.76 xG for M'gladbach and 2.17 xG for Hoffenheim, against a final score of 1-2. The chances and the scoreline broadly agreed.

Expected Goals (xG)

M'gladbach have created 1.56 xG and scored 1.83 per game over their last 6, scoring above their xG. Hoffenheim have created 1.90 xG and scored 1.50 per game over their last 6, scoring below their xG.

Real Understat xG, recent games only (the five leagues we cover for xG). xG measures chance quality, not a tip.

M'gladbachM'gladbach

Recent xG per game

Recorded recent matches.

HoffenheimHoffenheim
Statistic
M'gladbach
Hoffenheim
Matches in sample
6
6
xG created per game
1.56
1.90

xG conceded per game
2.62
1.78

Bar scales · xG per game: 0–3. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Form & head-to-head

Recent form uses each club’s available results in their stored order. Select a W/D/L result for details.

Head-to-head figures use their own recorded sample. Where individual results are available, the figures and journal cover the same meetings. Missing results are never counted as draws.

M'gladbachM'gladbachLast 5
L
Loss · 0-3
L
Loss · 3-4
L
Loss · 0-5
L
Loss · 3-4
L
Loss · 1-2

0 wins · 0 draws · 5 losses

HoffenheimHoffenheimLast 5
L
Loss · 2-3
L
Loss · 2-3
W
Win · 2-1
L
Loss · 1-3
L
Loss · 2-3

1 win · 0 draws · 4 losses

W Win
D Draw
L Loss

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings

2M'gladbachM'gladbach wins
1Draws
2HoffenheimHoffenheim wins
5.6Average goals
Date
Home team
Score
Away team
M'gladbachM'gladbach
4 – 0
HoffenheimHoffenheim
HoffenheimHoffenheim
5 – 1
M'gladbachM'gladbach
M'gladbachM'gladbach
4 – 4
HoffenheimHoffenheim
HoffenheimHoffenheim
1 – 2
M'gladbachM'gladbach
HoffenheimHoffenheim
4 – 3
M'gladbachM'gladbach

Match outlook

M'gladbach37.8%
Draw23.7%
PickHoffenheim38.6%

The model leans Hoffenheim to win.

See the full prediction

Overall model accuracy

We don't yet publish a graded Expected Goals (xG)-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.

0.0106Calibration error (1X2)
47.7%Top-pick hit rate (1X2)
56,038Matches graded

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

In-depth analysis

38.6%Favoured: Hoffenheim
67.6%Both Teams to Score
66.4%Over 2.5 goals

We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.

Players to watch

Published player-market probabilities, shown in kickoff order. Model estimates, not confirmed lineups.

How our football predictions work →

M'gladbachM'gladbach (1)
Tim Kleindienst
Watch list
Prediction markets
Model %
Fair odds
Save
To score
34.4%
2.91
1+ shot on target
63.3%
1.58
2+ shots
58.5%
1.71
Per 90 minutes (recent averages)
Shots2.24
On target1.14
Goals0.48
HoffenheimHoffenheim (1)
Adam Hlozek
Watch list
Prediction markets
Model %
Fair odds
Save
To score
24.3%
4.12
1+ shot on target
54.2%
1.85
2+ shots
58.5%
1.71
Per 90 minutes (recent averages)
Shots2.97
On target1.18
Goals0.42

FAQ

How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

More Bundesliga, Expected Goals (xG)

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Related

BundesligaBorussia Monchengladbach fixtures and statsHoffenheim fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.