AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 28 Oct 2026

Premier League
LiverpoolLiverpoolDWLWW
Sun, 1 Nov 20261/1116:30UK12°C · Cloudy
ArsenalArsenalWLWWW

Liverpool vs Arsenal cards prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined50.9%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined49.1%

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards50.9%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Liverpool vs Arsenal. Slightly more cards are projected for Arsenal for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 71.7% 28.3%
3.5 cards 50.9% 49.1%
4.5 cards 31.5% 68.5%
5.5 cards 17.2% 82.8%

Who picks up more cards

Liverpool
37.6%
Level
21.6%
Arsenal
40.9%

Team cards lines

Liverpool

Over 1.5
54.2%
Over 2.5
27.3%

Arsenal

Over 1.5
56.6%
Over 2.5
29.6%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Liverpool's; Arsenal gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Liverpool line Liverpool Arsenal
-1.5 19.6% 80.4%
-0.5 37.6% 62.4%
+0.5 59.1% 40.9%
+1.5 77.9% 22.1%

Red card

Any red card12.1%
Liverpool red card7.2%
Arsenal red card5.2%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 62.1% 37.9%
22.5 fouls 45.9% 54.1%
24.5 fouls 30.9% 69.1%

Recent referees

The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.

Team Referee Games Cards/g Team cards/g
Liverpool S Barrott 2 4.0 2.0

Swipe to see all referee stats →

LiverpoolLiverpool

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Liverpool at home and Arsenal away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

ArsenalArsenal
Statistic
Liverpool
Arsenal
Cards per game at this venue
2.3
1.0

Opponent cards per game at this venue
1.8
2.7

Yellow cards per game
2.3
1.1

First-half yellow cards per game
0.6
0.3

Second-half yellow cards per game
1.7
0.8

Matches with more cards than the opponent
57.1%
0.0%

Matches with card data
7
6
Red cards this season
1
0

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Recorded rate (%): 0–100. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 11,337 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 28 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 50.9%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 71.7% for over 2.5 to 17.2% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 50.9%. On the card count, Arsenal are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 40.9%, with a level count at 21.6%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.

In-depth analysis

Split by side, Liverpool over 1.5 cards sits at 54.2% and Arsenal at 56.6%. A red card for either side is rated at 12.1% (Liverpool 7.2%, Arsenal 5.2%). Liverpool’s most frequent referee this season, S Barrott, has averaged 4.0 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff. This season Liverpool have averaged 2.4 cards a game and Arsenal 1.2.

Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. The track record is public, misses included.

50.9%Over 3.5 cards
12.1%Any red card
40.9%Most cards: Arsenal
54.2%Liverpool over 1.5 cards
56.6%Arsenal over 1.5 cards
45.9%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 50.9% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Referee WatcherS Barrott, Liverpool’s most frequent referee this season, averages 4.0 cards a game. These historical averages do not identify this match’s referee.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 12.1%, a low-probability event, but one that reshapes every line when it lands.
The DisciplinarianArsenal are the pick to collect more cards at 40.9%, bookings follow the side defending under pressure.
LiverpoolLiverpool

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

ArsenalArsenal
Statistic
Liverpool
Arsenal
cards per game
2.4
1.2

fouls per game
13.8
10.3

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Liverpool vs Arsenal?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 50.9% for Liverpool vs Arsenal.
Will there be a red card in Liverpool vs Arsenal?
The model rates a red card for either side at 12.1%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Liverpool vs Arsenal?
The model rates Arsenal to pick up more cards at 40.9%, with a level count at 21.6%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

Premier LeagueLiverpool fixtures and statsArsenal fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.