Süper LigIstanbul Basaksehir vs 
Genclerbirligi Cards
Result
Settled, final score 4-0. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 64.3%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 81.7% for over 2.5 to 28.3% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 45.2%. Head to head on cards, Genclerbirligi are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 42.9%, with a level count at 19.6%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 81.7% | 18.3% |
| 3.5 cards | 64.3% | 35.7% |
| 4.5 cards | 45.2% | 54.8% |
| 5.5 cards | 28.3% | 71.7% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
62.9%
36.0%
66.4%
39.9%
Card handicap
| Istanbul Basaksehir line | Istanbul Basaksehir | Genclerbirligi |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 20.9% | 79.1% |
| -0.5 | 37.6% | 62.4% |
| +0.5 | 57.2% | 42.9% |
| +1.5 | 74.9% | 25.1% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 85.9% | 14.1% |
| 22.5 fouls | 75.3% | 24.7% |
| 24.5 fouls | 61.9% | 38.1% |
This season (2026/27)
2.0Genclerbirligi cards per game12.8Genclerbirligi fouls per gameBookings are a lower-liquidity market, so calibration matters most here, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Istanbul Basaksehir vs Genclerbirligi. Slightly more cards are projected for Genclerbirligi for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.
64.3%Over 3.5 cards15.3%Any red card62.9%Istanbul Basaksehir over 1.5 cards66.4%Genclerbirligi over 1.5 cards75.3%Over 22.5 foulsSplit by side, Istanbul Basaksehir over 1.5 cards sits at 62.9% and Genclerbirligi at 66.4%. A red card for either side is rated at 15.3% (Istanbul Basaksehir 4.9%, Genclerbirligi 11.0%).
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Istanbul Basaksehir vs Genclerbirligi?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 64.3% for Istanbul Basaksehir vs Genclerbirligi.
Will there be a red card in Istanbul Basaksehir vs Genclerbirligi?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 15.3%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Istanbul Basaksehir vs Genclerbirligi?
Before kickoff, the model rated Genclerbirligi to pick up more cards at 42.9%, with a level count at 19.6%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 10,143 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 22 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Süper Lig, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
