Süper Lig
Konyaspor vs Istanbul Basaksehir Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 67.5%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 83.8% for over 2.5 to 31.5% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 48.8%. Head to head on cards, Istanbul Basaksehir are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 41.6%, with a level count at 19.2%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 83.8% | 16.2% |
| 3.5 cards | 67.5% | 32.5% |
| 4.5 cards | 48.8% | 51.2% |
| 5.5 cards | 31.5% | 68.5% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
66.2%
39.6%
67.8%
41.4%
Card handicap
| Konyaspor line | Konyaspor | Istanbul Basaksehir |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 22.5% | 77.5% |
| -0.5 | 39.2% | 60.8% |
| +0.5 | 58.4% | 41.6% |
| +1.5 | 75.5% | 24.5% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 83.1% | 16.9% |
| 22.5 fouls | 71.4% | 28.6% |
| 24.5 fouls | 57.3% | 42.7% |
This season (2026/27)
2.6Konyaspor cards per game13.0Konyaspor fouls per gameBookings are a lower-liquidity market, so calibration matters most here, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Konyaspor vs Istanbul Basaksehir. Slightly more cards are projected for Istanbul Basaksehir for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.
67.5%Over 3.5 cards15.2%Any red card66.2%Konyaspor over 1.5 cards67.8%Istanbul Basaksehir over 1.5 cards71.4%Over 22.5 foulsFor the team lines, Konyaspor over 1.5 cards sits at 66.2% and Istanbul Basaksehir at 67.8%. A red card for either side is rated at 15.2% (Konyaspor 9.3%, Istanbul Basaksehir 6.5%).
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Konyaspor vs Istanbul Basaksehir?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 67.5% for Konyaspor vs Istanbul Basaksehir.
Will there be a red card in Konyaspor vs Istanbul Basaksehir?
The model rates a red card for either side at 15.2%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Konyaspor vs Istanbul Basaksehir?
The model rates Istanbul Basaksehir to pick up more cards at 41.6%, with a level count at 19.2%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 10,117 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 21 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Süper Lig, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
