Süper Lig
Genclerbirligi vs 
Amedspor Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 64.0%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 81.4% for over 2.5 to 27.9% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 44.8%. On the card count, Amedspor are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 45.9%, with a level count at 19.5%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 81.4% | 18.6% |
| 3.5 cards | 64.0% | 36.0% |
| 4.5 cards | 44.8% | 55.2% |
| 5.5 cards | 27.9% | 72.1% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
60.6%
33.5%
68.1%
41.7%
Card handicap
| Genclerbirligi line | Genclerbirligi | Amedspor |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 18.7% | 81.3% |
| -0.5 | 34.6% | 65.4% |
| +0.5 | 54.1% | 45.9% |
| +1.5 | 72.4% | 27.6% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 84.1% | 15.9% |
| 22.5 fouls | 72.8% | 27.2% |
| 24.5 fouls | 58.9% | 41.1% |
This season (2026/27)
2.0Genclerbirligi cards per game12.8Genclerbirligi fouls per game2.2Amedspor cards per game12.6Amedspor fouls per gameThe discipline market is less analysed than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Genclerbirligi vs Amedspor. The model leans toward Amedspor for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
We publish the model, not a sure thing. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.
64.0%Over 3.5 cards8.3%Any red card60.6%Genclerbirligi over 1.5 cards68.1%Amedspor over 1.5 cards72.8%Over 22.5 foulsSplit by side, Genclerbirligi over 1.5 cards sits at 60.6% and Amedspor at 68.1%. A red card for either side is rated at 8.3% (Genclerbirligi 4.4%, Amedspor 4.2%). This season Genclerbirligi have averaged 2.0 cards a game and Amedspor 2.2.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Genclerbirligi vs Amedspor?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 64.0% for Genclerbirligi vs Amedspor.
Will there be a red card in Genclerbirligi vs Amedspor?
The model rates a red card for either side at 8.3%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Genclerbirligi vs Amedspor?
The model rates Amedspor to pick up more cards at 45.9%, with a level count at 19.5%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 10,117 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 21 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Süper Lig, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
