Süper Lig
Galatasaray vs 
Kasimpasa Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 66.6%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 83.2% for over 2.5 to 30.5% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 47.7%. Head to head on cards, Kasimpasa are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 48.6%, with a level count at 18.9%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 83.2% | 16.8% |
| 3.5 cards | 66.6% | 33.4% |
| 4.5 cards | 47.7% | 52.3% |
| 5.5 cards | 30.5% | 69.5% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
60.8%
33.7%
71.2%
45.6%
Card handicap
| Galatasaray line | Galatasaray | Kasimpasa |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 17.3% | 82.7% |
| -0.5 | 32.4% | 67.6% |
| +0.5 | 51.4% | 48.6% |
| +1.5 | 69.8% | 30.2% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 82.7% | 17.3% |
| 22.5 fouls | 70.8% | 29.2% |
| 24.5 fouls | 56.6% | 43.4% |
This season (2026/27)
1.8Galatasaray cards per game11.2Galatasaray fouls per game2.8Kasimpasa cards per game14.4Kasimpasa fouls per gameThe discipline market is less analysed than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Galatasaray vs Kasimpasa. The model leans toward Kasimpasa for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. We score every call against the result after the match.
66.6%Over 3.5 cards31.3%Any red card60.8%Galatasaray over 1.5 cards71.2%Kasimpasa over 1.5 cards70.8%Over 22.5 foulsFor the team lines, Galatasaray over 1.5 cards sits at 60.8% and Kasimpasa at 71.2%. A red card for either side is rated at 31.3% (Galatasaray 5.7%, Kasimpasa 27.1%). This season Galatasaray have averaged 1.8 cards a game and Kasimpasa 2.8.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Galatasaray vs Kasimpasa?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 66.6% for Galatasaray vs Kasimpasa.
Will there be a red card in Galatasaray vs Kasimpasa?
The model rates a red card for either side at 31.3%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Galatasaray vs Kasimpasa?
The model rates Kasimpasa to pick up more cards at 48.6%, with a level count at 18.9%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 10,117 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 21 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Süper Lig, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
