Süper LigIstanbul Basaksehir vs 
Genclerbirligi Correct Score
Result
Final score 4-0. The model gave that exact scoreline 1.1%.
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Most likely · 13.3% at 1-1, its strongest read on the Correct Score market. That fits a balanced goals environment: 47.0% for over 2.5 and 73.0% for at least two goals. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Correct Score
| Scoreline | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1-1 | 13.3% |
| 1-0 | 9.8% |
| 0-1 | 8.8% |
| 2-1 | 8.5% |
| 0-0 | 8.4% |
| 1-2 | 7.7% |
| 2-0 | 7.0% |
| 0-2 | 5.7% |
Score probability grid
| Istanbul Basaksehir \ Genclerbirligi | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8% | 9% | 6% | 2% | 1% | · |
| 1 | 10% | 13% | 8% | 3% | 1% | · |
| 2 | 7% | 8% | 5% | 2% | 1% | · |
| 3 | 3% | 4% | 2% | 1% | · | · |
| 4 | 1% | 1% | 1% | · | · | · |
| 5 | · | · | · | · | · | · |
Rows = Istanbul Basaksehir goals, columns = Genclerbirligi. The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13.3%. The grid is the model’s full scoreline distribution, not a single tip, but the shape of every plausible result. Darker cells carry more probability.
Goals distribution
How likely each total number of goals is, according to the model. Every goals market on this page is built from these bars. The 5+ bar covers every result with five goals or more.
0
1
2
3
4
5+
In-depth analysis
52.5%Both Teams to Score47.0%Over 2.5 goalsFor the goal environment, the model sees 47.0% for three or more goals and 73.0% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. Given Istanbul Basaksehir favoured at 39.2%, neither side dominating can mean an end-to-end match.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
Form & head-to-head
FAQ
What was the score in Istanbul Basaksehir vs Genclerbirligi?
Istanbul Basaksehir vs Genclerbirligi finished 4-0. The model's most likely scoreline was 1-1 at 13.3%; it gave the actual 4-0 a 1.1% chance.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Overall model accuracy
We don’t yet publish a graded Correct Score-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.
Predictions & track record updated 22 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
More Süper Lig, Correct Score
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
