Kasimpasa vs Konyaspor: model prediction
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Süper LigKasimpasa or draw
Over 1.5 goals
Over 8.5 corners
Full time2 of 4 calls right
Our most likely call was Kasimpasa at 45.3%, and it was wrong. We called Under 2.5 at 53.4% and it landed (0 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 72.7% and it missed (0 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 74.9% and it landed (0 goals). We called Yes at 51.3% and it missed.
Win probability · fair 2.21
Top signals
Model read
A measured edge to Kasimpasa: 45% is the model's line for this Süper Lig meeting on 18 September 2026. The numbers that frame it: • Totals sit close to the fence: 47% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 51%. • Form guide over the last six: Kasimpasa W3 D3 L0, Konyaspor W1 D0 L5. • Head to head, the last 5 meetings gave 0 wins for Kasimpasa, 3 draws and 2 for Konyaspor, averaging 3.4 goals a game. The engine passes on this one (no bookmaker price published for this match yet).
Value & higher-risk angles
Outcomes the model rates higher than the obvious price suggests, plus a few long-shot scorelines that are simply possible. These are the least likely calls on the page, so treat them as such. They are not tips, and we do not beat the sharp bookmakers.
Model vs market
45.3%
27.4%
27.3%
no bookmaker price published for this match yet
Goals
Corners
Shots
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
Totals line guide
Before kick-off this match stood as Our price. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Kasimpasa 0 · 3 draws · Konyaspor 2 · 3.4 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
Kasimpasa
Konyaspor40.0%40.0%
80.0%40.0%
20.0%20.0%
League averages this season: 2.91 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 53% · BTTS in 47%. Full league tables & stats →
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots
| Over 22.5 | 64.7% | Over 24.5 | 52.6% | Over 26.5 | 40.6% | Over 28.5 | 29.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Kasimpasa | 62.0% | Most: Konyaspor | 32.2% | ||||
| Kasimpasa Over 13.2 | 50.5% | Konyaspor Over 13.2 | 29.3% |
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 73.9% | Over 7.5 | 62.2% | Over 8.5 | 49.8% | Over 9.5 | 38.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Kasimpasa | 57.0% | Most: Konyaspor | 31.0% | ||||
| Kasimpasa Over 4.2 | 52.7% | Konyaspor Over 4.2 | 33.8% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 85.9% | Over 3.5 | 70.9% | Over 4.5 | 52.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Kasimpasa | 36.8% | Most: Konyaspor | 44.6% | ||
| Kasimpasa Over 1.8 | 66.9% | Konyaspor Over 1.8 | 71.7% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
Worked out from the scoreline grid above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the other side fails to score. It is the model’s own percentage, scored against the result afterwards, and it is not a tip.
| Kasimpasa clean sheet | 33.9% |
|---|---|
| Konyaspor clean sheet | 23.2% |
| Kasimpasa win to nil | 25.4% |
| Konyaspor win to nil | 14.7% |
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
The model’s own percentages, with no odds attached. The smaller markets are here so you can see everything we hold a number on, not because we claim an advantage in them. The colour says how close our percentages have landed to reality on matches the model had never seen.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 45.3% | draw | 27.4% | away | 27.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 72.7% | 12 | 72.6% | X2 | 54.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 62.4% | away | 37.6% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 51.3% | no | 48.7% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 34.0% | away | 23.2% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 25.5% | away | 14.7% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 22.7% | home_by_2 | 13.8% | home_by_3plus | 8.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 16.6% | away_by_2 | 7.5% | away_by_3plus | 3.2% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 8.5% | 0-1 | 7.9% | 0-2 | 4.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 1.7% | 0-4 | 0.4% | 0-5 | 0.1% |
| 1-0 | 10.9% | 1-1 | 13.1% | 1-2 | 6.7% |
| 1-3 | 2.4% | 1-4 | 0.7% | 1-5 | 0.1% |
| 2-0 | 8.4% | 2-1 | 9.1% | 2-2 | 4.9% |
| 2-3 | 1.8% | 2-4 | 0.5% | 2-5 | 0.1% |
| 3-0 | 4.1% | 3-1 | 4.4% | 3-2 | 2.4% |
| 3-3 | 0.9% | 3-4 | 0.2% | 3-5 | 0.1% |
| 4-0 | 1.5% | 4-1 | 1.6% | 4-2 | 0.9% |
| 4-3 | 0.3% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.4% | 5-1 | 0.5% | 5-2 | 0.3% |
| 5-3 | 0.1% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.5% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 13.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 91.5% | under_0.5 | 8.5% | over_1.5 | 72.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 27.3% | over_2.5 | 46.6% | under_2.5 | 53.4% |
| over_3.5 | 25.1% | under_3.5 | 74.9% | over_4.5 | 11.4% |
| under_4.5 | 88.6% | over_5.5 | 4.5% | under_5.5 | 95.5% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.4% | even | 51.6% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 76.8% | under_0.5 | 23.2% | over_1.5 | 42.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 57.1% | over_2.5 | 18.1% | under_2.5 | 81.9% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 66.0% | under_0.5 | 34.0% | over_1.5 | 29.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 70.7% | over_2.5 | 9.5% | under_2.5 | 90.5% |
most
| home | 45.3% | draw | 27.4% | away | 27.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 8.8% | away_+2.5 | 91.2% | home_-1.5 | 22.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 77.4% | home_-0.5 | 45.3% | away_+0.5 | 54.7% |
| home_+0.5 | 72.7% | away_-0.5 | 27.3% | home_+1.5 | 89.3% |
| away_-1.5 | 10.7% | home_+2.5 | 96.8% | away_-2.5 | 3.2% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 8.5% | exact_1 | 18.8% | exact_2 | 26.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 21.5% | exact_4 | 13.7% | exact_5 | 6.9% |
| exact_6 | 2.9% | exact_7plus | 1.5% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 30.6% | draw | 42.3% | away | 27.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 69.4% | under_0.5 | 30.6% | over_1.5 | 33.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 66.8% | over_2.5 | 11.7% | under_2.5 | 88.3% |
btts
| yes | 19.9% | no | 80.1% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 30.6% | exact_1 | 36.2% | exact_2 | 21.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 8.5% | exact_4plus | 3.3% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 41.5% | draw | 37.6% | away | 20.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 75.0% | under_0.5 | 25.0% | over_1.5 | 40.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 59.7% | over_2.5 | 16.3% | under_2.5 | 83.7% |
btts
| yes | 23.5% | no | 76.5% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 25.6% | H/D | 3.9% | H/A | 1.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 17.5% | D/D | 15.9% | D/A | 8.8% |
| A/H | 3.2% | A/D | 6.1% | A/A | 17.8% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 71.1% | under_7.5 | 28.9% | over_8.5 | 59.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 40.8% | over_9.5 | 47.0% | under_9.5 | 53.0% |
| over_10.5 | 35.5% | under_10.5 | 64.5% | over_11.5 | 25.5% |
| under_11.5 | 74.5% | over_12.5 | 17.4% | under_12.5 | 82.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 71.5% | under_3.5 | 28.5% | over_4.5 | 55.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 44.1% | over_5.5 | 40.7% | under_5.5 | 59.4% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 59.8% | under_3.5 | 40.2% | over_4.5 | 42.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 57.3% | over_5.5 | 28.1% | under_5.5 | 71.9% |
most
| home | 53.2% | draw | 10.8% | away | 36.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 23.0% | away_+3.5 | 77.0% | home_-1.5 | 42.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 57.7% | home_-0.5 | 53.2% | away_+0.5 | 46.8% |
| home_+0.5 | 64.0% | away_-0.5 | 36.0% | home_+1.5 | 73.7% |
| away_-1.5 | 26.3% | home_+3.5 | 88.1% | away_-3.5 | 11.9% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 64.7% | under_22.5 | 35.3% | over_24.5 | 52.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 47.4% | over_26.5 | 40.7% | under_26.5 | 59.4% |
| over_28.5 | 29.7% | under_28.5 | 70.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 74.1% | under_10.5 | 25.9% | over_12.5 | 58.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 41.4% | over_14.5 | 42.6% | under_14.5 | 57.4% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 54.6% | under_10.5 | 45.4% | over_12.5 | 37.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 63.1% | over_14.5 | 22.7% | under_14.5 | 77.4% |
most
| home | 62.0% | draw | 5.7% | away | 32.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 37.8% | away_+4.5 | 62.2% | home_-2.5 | 49.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 50.1% | home_-0.5 | 62.0% | away_+0.5 | 38.0% |
| home_+0.5 | 67.8% | away_-0.5 | 32.2% | home_+2.5 | 78.0% |
| away_-2.5 | 22.1% | home_+4.5 | 86.0% | away_-4.5 | 14.0% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 73.9% | under_6.5 | 26.1% | over_7.5 | 62.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 37.8% | over_8.5 | 49.9% | under_8.5 | 50.1% |
| over_9.5 | 38.1% | under_9.5 | 61.9% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 69.1% | under_3.5 | 30.9% | over_4.5 | 52.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 47.3% | over_5.5 | 37.1% | under_5.5 | 62.9% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 51.4% | under_3.5 | 48.6% | over_4.5 | 33.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 66.2% | over_5.5 | 20.2% | under_5.5 | 79.8% |
most
| home | 57.0% | draw | 12.0% | away | 31.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 32.6% | away_+2.5 | 67.4% | home_-0.5 | 57.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 43.0% | home_+0.5 | 69.0% | away_-0.5 | 31.1% |
| home_+2.5 | 87.0% | away_-2.5 | 13.0% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 85.9% | under_2.5 | 14.1% | over_3.5 | 70.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 29.1% | over_4.5 | 52.7% | under_4.5 | 47.3% |
| over_5.5 | 35.2% | under_5.5 | 64.8% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 66.9% | under_1.5 | 33.1% | over_2.5 | 40.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 59.6% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 71.7% | under_1.5 | 28.3% | over_2.5 | 46.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 53.9% |
most
| home | 36.8% | draw | 18.6% | away | 44.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 21.0% | away_+1.5 | 79.1% | home_-0.5 | 36.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 63.2% | home_+0.5 | 55.4% | away_-0.5 | 44.6% |
| home_+1.5 | 72.8% | away_-1.5 | 27.3% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 85.5% | under_20.5 | 14.5% | over_22.5 | 74.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 25.2% | over_24.5 | 61.3% | under_24.5 | 38.7% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 83.4% | under_9.5 | 16.6% | over_11.5 | 66.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 34.0% | over_13.5 | 45.6% | under_13.5 | 54.4% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 81.6% | under_9.5 | 18.5% | over_11.5 | 63.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 36.8% | over_13.5 | 42.6% | under_13.5 | 57.4% |
most
| home | 48.4% | draw | 7.3% | away | 44.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 27.7% | away_+3.5 | 72.3% | home_-0.5 | 48.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 51.6% | home_+2.5 | 69.7% | away_-2.5 | 30.3% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 15.6% | no | 84.5% |
|---|
home
| yes | 6.6% | no | 93.4% |
|---|
away
| yes | 9.6% | no | 90.4% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55416 matches).
More: Kasimpasa predictions · Konyaspor predictions · Süper Lig
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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