Süper LigIstanbul Basaksehir vs 
Genclerbirligi Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Result
We called Under 2.5 at 53.0% and it missed. We called Under 3.5 at 74.6% and it missed.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Under 2.5 goals at 53.0%, its strongest read on the Over / Under 2.5 Goals market. That fits a balanced goals environment: 47.0% for over 2.5 and 73.0% for at least two goals. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Total goals, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 91.6% | 8.4% |
| 1.5 goals | 73.0% | 27.0% |
| 2.5 goals | 47.0% | 53.0% |
| 3.5 goals | 25.5% | 74.6% |
| 4.5 goals | 11.7% | 88.4% |
| 5.5 goals | 4.6% | 95.4% |
Team goal lines
73.9%
38.8%
15.3%
70.2%
34.2%
12.3%
First-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 72.5% | 27.6% |
| 1.5 goals | 36.9% | 63.1% |
| 2.5 goals | 14.0% | 86.0% |
Second-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 73.7% | 26.3% |
| 1.5 goals | 38.6% | 61.4% |
| 2.5 goals | 15.2% | 84.9% |
This season (2026/27)
1.0Genclerbirligi goals scored per game1.8Genclerbirligi goals conceded per game60.0%Genclerbirligi Over 2.5 rate0.4Genclerbirligi 1st-half goals per gameGoals distribution
How likely each total number of goals is, according to the model. Every goals market on this page is built from these bars. The 5+ bar covers every result with five goals or more.
0
1
2
3
4
5+
In-depth analysis
These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.
52.5%Both Teams to Score47.0%Over 2.5 goalsOn the goals side, the model sees 47.0% for three or more goals and 73.0% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. With Istanbul Basaksehir favoured at 39.2%, a competitive game tends to open up.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Istanbul Basaksehir to win. See the full prediction →
Form & head-to-head
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.
FAQ
Were there over 2.5 goals in Istanbul Basaksehir vs Genclerbirligi?
We rated Over 2.5 goals at 47.0%. The match finished with 4 goals (4-0), over 2.5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals accuracy
How our Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 20,782 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Over / Under 2.5 Goals actually happened 47.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 22 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls
Our most recent Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Süper Lig, Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
