Süper Lig
Alanyaspor vs 
Erzurumspor Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 62.3%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 80.3% for over 2.5 to 26.3% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 42.9%. On the card count, Erzurumspor are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 41.0%, with a level count at 19.9%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 80.3% | 19.8% |
| 3.5 cards | 62.3% | 37.7% |
| 4.5 cards | 42.9% | 57.1% |
| 5.5 cards | 26.3% | 73.7% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
62.6%
35.7%
63.9%
37.1%
Card handicap
| Alanyaspor line | Alanyaspor | Erzurumspor |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 21.9% | 78.1% |
| -0.5 | 39.1% | 60.9% |
| +0.5 | 59.0% | 41.0% |
| +1.5 | 76.6% | 23.4% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 84.6% | 15.4% |
| 22.5 fouls | 73.4% | 26.6% |
| 24.5 fouls | 59.7% | 40.3% |
This season (2026/27)
1.2Alanyaspor cards per game14.7Alanyaspor fouls per game1.3Erzurumspor cards per game11.5Erzurumspor fouls per gameBookings are a lower-liquidity market, so calibration matters most here, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Alanyaspor vs Erzurumspor. Slightly more cards are projected for Erzurumspor for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. The track record is public, misses included.
62.3%Over 3.5 cards7.4%Any red card62.6%Alanyaspor over 1.5 cards63.9%Erzurumspor over 1.5 cards73.4%Over 22.5 foulsBy team, Alanyaspor over 1.5 cards sits at 62.6% and Erzurumspor at 63.9%. A red card for either side is rated at 7.4% (Alanyaspor 1.9%, Erzurumspor 5.7%). This season Alanyaspor have averaged 1.2 cards a game and Erzurumspor 1.3.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Alanyaspor vs Erzurumspor?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 62.3% for Alanyaspor vs Erzurumspor.
Will there be a red card in Alanyaspor vs Erzurumspor?
The model rates a red card for either side at 7.4%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Alanyaspor vs Erzurumspor?
The model rates Erzurumspor to pick up more cards at 41.0%, with a level count at 19.9%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 10,143 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 22 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Süper Lig, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
