Süper Lig
Samsunspor vs 
Trabzonspor Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 61.2%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 79.5% for over 2.5 to 25.4% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 41.8%. Between the two sides, Samsunspor are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 40.1%, with a level count at 20.1%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 79.5% | 20.5% |
| 3.5 cards | 61.2% | 38.8% |
| 4.5 cards | 41.8% | 58.2% |
| 5.5 cards | 25.4% | 74.6% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
62.6%
35.7%
62.5%
35.5%
Card handicap
| Samsunspor line | Samsunspor | Trabzonspor |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 22.6% | 77.4% |
| -0.5 | 40.1% | 59.9% |
| +0.5 | 60.1% | 39.9% |
| +1.5 | 77.6% | 22.4% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 85.9% | 14.1% |
| 22.5 fouls | 75.3% | 24.7% |
| 24.5 fouls | 61.9% | 38.1% |
This season (2026/27)
0.7Samsunspor cards per game12.0Samsunspor fouls per game2.7Trabzonspor cards per game11.3Trabzonspor fouls per gameThe discipline market is less analysed than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor. Slightly more cards are projected for Samsunspor for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.
61.2%Over 3.5 cards14.8%Any red card62.6%Samsunspor over 1.5 cards62.5%Trabzonspor over 1.5 cards75.3%Over 22.5 foulsFor the team lines, Samsunspor over 1.5 cards sits at 62.6% and Trabzonspor at 62.5%. A red card for either side is rated at 14.8% (Samsunspor 5.9%, Trabzonspor 9.4%). This season Samsunspor have averaged 0.7 cards a game and Trabzonspor 2.7.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 61.2% for Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor.
Will there be a red card in Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor?
The model rates a red card for either side at 14.8%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor?
The model rates Samsunspor to pick up more cards at 40.1%, with a level count at 20.1%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 10,143 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 22 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Süper Lig, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
