Istanbul Basaksehir vs Genclerbirligi prediction & probabilities (2026-09-19)

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Istanbul Basaksehir vs Genclerbirligi: model prediction

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 18 Sep 2026

Süper Lig
Istanbul Basaksehir
Full time4-0Sat, 19 Sep 202619/918:00UK
Genclerbirligi

WWDLL

Model’s top convictions

73%

Over 1.5 goals

67%

Istanbul Basaksehir or draw

61%

Draw or Genclerbirligi

Full time1 of 4 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Istanbul Basaksehir 4-0 Genclerbirligi
ResultOver 2.5 goalsOver 1.5 goalsOver 3.5 goalsBoth teams to score
2 of 5 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Istanbul Basaksehir at 39.2%, and it was correct. We called Under 2.5 at 53.0% and it missed (4 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 73.0% and it landed (4 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 74.6% and it missed (4 goals). We called Yes at 52.5% and it missed.

Model pick

Istanbul Basaksehir39.2%

Win probability · fair 2.55

Top signals

Over 1.5 goalsLikely73.0%Fair 1.37
Istanbul Basaksehir or drawLikely67.1%Fair 1.49
Draw or GenclerbirligiLikely60.9%Fair 1.64

Model read

Istanbul Basaksehir versus Genclerbirligi in the Süper Lig on 19 September 2026 is finely balanced. Istanbul Basaksehir edge it at 39%, but the gap to the field is slim. The numbers that frame it: • Totals sit close to the fence: 47% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 52%. • As a promoted side, Istanbul Basaksehir carry exactly the structural uncertainty our priors were built for. Discipline says sit it out: no bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Value & higher-risk angles

Outcomes the model rates higher than the obvious price suggests, plus a few long-shot scorelines that are simply possible. These are the least likely calls on the page, so treat them as such. They are not tips, and we do not beat the sharp bookmakers.

High risk

Over 2.5 goals47.0%@ 2.13
Over 9.5 corners45.7%@ 2.19
Over 10.5 corners35.7%@ 2.80
Medium risk

Over 8.5 corners56.5%@ 1.77
Under 2.5 goals53.0%@ 1.89
Both teams to score52.5%@ 1.90
Random finds

1-1 correct score13.3%@ 7.54
1-0 correct score9.8%@ 10.20
0-1 correct score8.8%@ 11.38

Model vs market

Basaksehir

39.2%

Draw

27.9%

GEN

33.0%

Model

no bookmaker price published for this match yet

Goals

Over 1.5Strongest read · Likely73.0%Fair 1.37
Over 2.5Close call47.0%Fair 2.13
BTTS · YesClose call52.5%Fair 1.90

Corners

Over 8.5 cornersClose call56.5%Fair 1.77
Over 9.5 cornersClose call45.7%Fair 2.19
Over 10.5 cornersUnlikely35.7%Fair 2.80
Over 11.5 cornersLong shot26.9%Fair 3.72
Most cornersIstanbul Basaksehir55.8%Genclerbirligi33.3%

Shots

Over 22.5 shotsLikely66.7%Fair 1.50
Over 24.5 shotsClose call54.8%Fair 1.83
Over 26.5 shotsUnlikely42.8%Fair 2.34
Over 28.5 shotsUnlikely31.6%Fair 3.17

Recent shot volume

Genclerbirligi13.0 taken17.0 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.573.0%2.547.0%3.5·4.5·
Our pre-match focusOver 1.573.0%

Before kick-off this match stood as Our price. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

GenclerbirligiWWDLL

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

Istanbul BasaksehirGenclerbirligi
League position#20 of 20#12 of 20
Record W-D-L0-0-12-1-2
Current streakL1L2
Points per game·1.40
Record, home vs away·1-0-1
Goals scored per game·1.00
Goals conceded per game·1.80
1st half goals per game·0.40
2nd half goals per game·0.60
Corners won per game·4.0
Cards per game·2.0
Fouls per game·12.8
Red cards this season·0
Shots per game·13.0
Shots faced per game·18.2
Shots on target per game·4.2
Over 2.5 rate

·60.0%

BTTS rate

·60.0%

Clean sheets

·20.0%

Rates this season:Istanbul BasaksehirGenclerbirligi

League averages this season: 2.91 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 53% · BTTS in 47%. Full league tables & stats →

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Istanbul Basaksehir win2.55
Draw3.59
Genclerbirligi win3.03
Both teams to score1.90

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.09
Over 1.5 goals1.37
Over 2.5 goals2.13
Over 3.5 goals3.93
Istanbul Basaksehir most2.55
Genclerbirligi most3.03

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.41
Over 8.5 corners1.70
Over 9.5 corners2.15
Over 10.5 corners2.86
Istanbul Basaksehir most1.79
Genclerbirligi most2.99

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.22
Over 3.5 cards1.55
Over 4.5 cards2.21
Over 5.5 cards3.54
Istanbul Basaksehir most2.66
Genclerbirligi most2.33

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.33
Over 7.5 SoT1.57
Over 8.5 SoT1.94
Over 9.5 SoT2.52
Istanbul Basaksehir most1.58
Genclerbirligi most3.93

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.50
Over 24.5 shots1.83
Over 26.5 shots2.34
Over 28.5 shots3.17
Istanbul Basaksehir most1.52
Genclerbirligi most3.48

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.16
Over 22.5 fouls1.33
Over 24.5 fouls1.62
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 66.7% Over 24.5 54.8% Over 26.5 42.8% Over 28.5 31.6%
Most: Istanbul Basaksehir 65.8% Most: Genclerbirligi 28.7%
Istanbul Basaksehir Over 13.2 54.7% Genclerbirligi Over 13.2 28.0%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 75.2% Over 7.5 63.7% Over 8.5 51.5% Over 9.5 39.7%
Most: Istanbul Basaksehir 63.4% Most: Genclerbirligi 25.4%
Istanbul Basaksehir Over 4.2 58.0% Genclerbirligi Over 4.2 30.0%

Cards

Over 2.5 81.7% Over 3.5 64.3% Over 4.5 45.2%
Most: Istanbul Basaksehir 37.6% Most: Genclerbirligi 42.9%
Istanbul Basaksehir Over 1.8 63.0% Genclerbirligi Over 1.8 66.4%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Worked out from the scoreline grid above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the other side fails to score. It is the model’s own percentage, scored against the result afterwards, and it is not a tip.

Istanbul Basaksehir clean sheet 29.7%
Genclerbirligi clean sheet 26.1%
Istanbul Basaksehir win to nil 21.3%
Genclerbirligi win to nil 17.7%

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

The model’s own percentages, with no odds attached. The smaller markets are here so you can see everything we hold a number on, not because we claim an advantage in them. The colour says how close our percentages have landed to reality on matches the model had never seen.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 39.2% draw 27.9% away 33.0%
double_chance
1X 67.0% 12 72.1% X2 60.8%
dnb
home 54.3% away 45.7%
btts
yes 52.5% no 47.5%
clean_sheet
home 29.8% away 26.1%
win_to_nil
home 21.3% away 17.7%
winning_margin
home_by_1 20.9% home_by_2 11.7% home_by_3plus 6.6%
away_by_1 18.8% away_by_2 9.5% away_by_3plus 4.6%
correct_score
0-0 8.4% 0-1 8.8% 0-2 5.7%
0-3 2.3% 0-4 0.7% 0-5 0.2%
1-0 9.8% 1-1 13.3% 1-2 7.7%
1-3 3.1% 1-4 0.9% 1-5 0.2%
2-0 7.0% 2-1 8.5% 2-2 5.1%
2-3 2.1% 2-4 0.6% 2-5 0.2%
3-0 3.1% 3-1 3.8% 3-2 2.3%
3-3 0.9% 3-4 0.3% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 1.1% 4-1 1.3% 4-2 0.8%
4-3 0.3% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.3% 5-1 0.3% 5-2 0.2%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.4%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 13.3%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 91.6% under_0.5 8.4% over_1.5 73.0%
under_1.5 27.0% over_2.5 47.0% under_2.5 53.0%
over_3.5 25.5% under_3.5 74.6% over_4.5 11.7%
under_4.5 88.4% over_5.5 4.6% under_5.5 95.4%
odd_even
odd 48.4% even 51.6%
team_home
over_0.5 73.9% under_0.5 26.1% over_1.5 38.8%
under_1.5 61.2% over_2.5 15.3% under_2.5 84.7%
team_away
over_0.5 70.2% under_0.5 29.8% over_1.5 34.2%
under_1.5 65.8% over_2.5 12.3% under_2.5 87.7%
most
home 39.2% draw 27.9% away 33.0%
handicap
home_-2.5 6.6% away_+2.5 93.4% home_-1.5 18.2%
away_+1.5 81.8% home_-0.5 39.2% away_+0.5 60.8%
home_+0.5 67.0% away_-0.5 33.0% home_+1.5 85.9%
away_-1.5 14.1% home_+2.5 95.4% away_-2.5 4.6%
total_exact
exact_0 8.4% exact_1 18.6% exact_2 26.0%
exact_3 21.6% exact_4 13.8% exact_5 7.1%
exact_6 3.0% exact_7plus 1.6%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 42.2% draw 39.0% away 18.8%
total
over_0.5 72.5% under_0.5 27.6% over_1.5 36.9%
under_1.5 63.1% over_2.5 14.0% under_2.5 86.0%
btts
yes 20.7% no 79.3%
total_exact
exact_0 27.6% exact_1 35.5% exact_2 22.9%
exact_3 9.8% exact_4plus 4.2%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 38.7% draw 38.8% away 22.5%
total
over_0.5 73.7% under_0.5 26.3% over_1.5 38.6%
under_1.5 61.4% over_2.5 15.2% under_2.5 84.9%
btts
yes 22.9% no 77.1%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 35.4% H/D 5.3% H/A 1.5%
D/H 15.1% D/D 15.2% D/A 8.8%
A/H 2.0% A/D 4.2% A/A 12.5%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 70.7% under_7.5 29.3% over_8.5 58.8%
under_8.5 41.2% over_9.5 46.5% under_9.5 53.5%
over_10.5 35.0% under_10.5 65.0% over_11.5 25.1%
under_11.5 74.9% over_12.5 17.1% under_12.5 82.9%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 72.8% under_3.5 27.2% over_4.5 57.5%
under_4.5 42.5% over_5.5 42.3% under_5.5 57.7%
team_away
over_3.5 57.4% under_3.5 42.6% over_4.5 40.2%
under_4.5 59.8% over_5.5 25.9% under_5.5 74.2%
most
home 56.0% draw 10.6% away 33.4%
handicap
home_-3.5 25.1% away_+3.5 75.0% home_-1.5 45.0%
away_+1.5 55.0% home_-0.5 56.0% away_+0.5 44.0%
home_+0.5 66.6% away_-0.5 33.4% home_+1.5 76.0%
away_-1.5 24.0% home_+3.5 89.6% away_-3.5 10.5%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 66.7% under_22.5 33.3% over_24.5 54.8%
under_24.5 45.2% over_26.5 42.8% under_26.5 57.2%
over_28.5 31.6% under_28.5 68.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 77.3% under_10.5 22.7% over_12.5 62.6%
under_12.5 37.4% over_14.5 46.8% under_14.5 53.2%
team_away
over_10.5 53.1% under_10.5 46.9% over_12.5 35.5%
under_12.5 64.5% over_14.5 21.5% under_14.5 78.5%
most
home 65.8% draw 5.5% away 28.7%
handicap
home_-4.5 41.8% away_+4.5 58.2% home_-2.5 54.0%
away_+2.5 46.0% home_-0.5 65.8% away_+0.5 34.2%
home_+0.5 71.3% away_-0.5 28.7% home_+2.5 80.8%
away_-2.5 19.3% home_+4.5 88.0% away_-4.5 12.0%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 75.1% under_6.5 24.9% over_7.5 63.7%
under_7.5 36.3% over_8.5 51.5% under_8.5 48.5%
over_9.5 39.7% under_9.5 60.3%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 73.5% under_3.5 26.5% over_4.5 58.0%
under_4.5 42.0% over_5.5 42.5% under_5.5 57.5%
team_away
over_3.5 47.4% under_3.5 52.6% over_4.5 30.0%
under_4.5 70.0% over_5.5 17.2% under_5.5 82.8%
most
home 63.4% draw 11.1% away 25.4%
handicap
home_-2.5 39.0% away_+2.5 61.1% home_-0.5 63.4%
away_+0.5 36.6% home_+0.5 74.6% away_-0.5 25.4%
home_+2.5 90.2% away_-2.5 9.8%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 81.7% under_2.5 18.3% over_3.5 64.3%
under_3.5 35.7% over_4.5 45.2% under_4.5 54.8%
over_5.5 28.3% under_5.5 71.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 62.9% under_1.5 37.1% over_2.5 36.0%
under_2.5 64.0%
team_away
over_1.5 66.4% under_1.5 33.6% over_2.5 39.9%
under_2.5 60.2%
most
home 37.6% draw 19.6% away 42.9%
handicap
home_-1.5 20.9% away_+1.5 79.1% home_-0.5 37.6%
away_+0.5 62.4% home_+0.5 57.2% away_-0.5 42.9%
home_+1.5 74.9% away_-1.5 25.1%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 85.9% under_20.5 14.1% over_22.5 75.3%
under_22.5 24.7% over_24.5 61.9% under_24.5 38.1%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 83.9% under_9.5 16.1% over_11.5 66.8%
under_11.5 33.2% over_13.5 46.5% under_13.5 53.5%
team_away
over_9.5 81.6% under_9.5 18.4% over_11.5 63.3%
under_11.5 36.7% over_13.5 42.6% under_13.5 57.4%
most
home 49.1% draw 7.3% away 43.6%
handicap
home_-3.5 28.2% away_+3.5 71.8% home_-0.5 49.1%
away_+0.5 50.9% home_+2.5 70.2% away_-2.5 29.8%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 15.3% no 84.7%
home
yes 4.9% no 95.1%
away
yes 11.0% no 89.0%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55416 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Istanbul Basaksehir predictions · Genclerbirligi predictions · Süper Lig

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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Markets

More on this match

Süper LigIstanbul BasaksehirGenclerbirligiTrack record