AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 13 Oct 2026

Bundesliga
FreiburgFreiburgWWWWD
Full time2-1Sun, 11 Oct 202611/1016:30UK14°C · Cloudy
Schalke 04Schalke 04LLDWD

Freiburg 2-1 Schalke 04 cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined51.3%
Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined48.7%

Result

Freiburg2-1Schalke 04
2 yellow cardsFreiburg 1, Schalke 04 1
1 red cardsFreiburg 1, Schalke 04 0
Under 3.5No

We called Under 3.5 at 51.3% and it landed (2 in the match). We called No at 81.1% and it missed (1 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards48.7%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Freiburg vs Schalke 04. The model leans toward Schalke 04 for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 69.9% 30.1%
3.5 cards 48.7% 51.3%
4.5 cards 29.5% 70.5%
5.5 cards 15.7% 84.3%

Who picks up more cards

Freiburg
34.8%
Level
21.8%
Schalke 04
43.5%

Team cards lines

Freiburg

Over 1.5
50.6%
Over 2.5
24.2%

Schalke 04

Over 1.5
57.0%
Over 2.5
29.9%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Freiburg's; Schalke 04 gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Freiburg line Freiburg Schalke 04
-1.5 17.4% 82.6%
-0.5 34.8% 65.2%
+0.5 56.6% 43.5%
+1.5 76.1% 23.9%

Red card

Any red card18.9%
Freiburg red card3.4%
Schalke 04 red card16.0%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 49.2% 50.8%
22.5 fouls 37.0% 63.0%
24.5 fouls 26.4% 73.6%

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 10,293 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.5% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 48.7%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 69.9% for over 2.5 to 15.7% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 48.7%. On the card count, Schalke 04 are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 43.5%, with a level count at 21.8%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.

In-depth analysis

Split by side, Freiburg over 1.5 cards sits at 50.6% and Schalke 04 at 57.0%. A red card for either side is rated at 18.9% (Freiburg 3.4%, Schalke 04 16.0%).

We publish the model, not a sure thing. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.

48.7%Over 3.5 cards
18.9%Any red card
43.5%Most cards: Schalke 04
50.6%Freiburg over 1.5 cards
57.0%Schalke 04 over 1.5 cards
37.0%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 48.7% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 18.9%, a low-probability event, but one that reshapes every line when it lands.
The DisciplinarianSchalke 04 are the pick to collect more cards at 43.5%, bookings follow the side defending under pressure.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 3.5 cards: over sits at 48.7%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.

FAQ

How many cards in Freiburg vs Schalke 04?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 48.7% for Freiburg vs Schalke 04.
Will there be a red card in Freiburg vs Schalke 04?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 18.9%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Freiburg vs Schalke 04?
Before kickoff, the model rated Schalke 04 to pick up more cards at 43.5%, with a level count at 21.8%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

BundesligaFreiburg fixtures and statsSchalke 04 fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.