Elche vs Celta: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 21 Sep 2026

La Liga

Elche

LLLDL

Sun, 11 Oct 202611/1013:00UK

Celta

LLDDD

Model’s top convictions

76%

Over 1.5 goals

67%

Elche or draw

60%

Draw or Celta

Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Model pick

Elche40.0%

Win probability · fair 2.50

Top signals

Over 1.5 goalsVery likely75.8%Fair 1.32

Elche or drawLikely66.9%Fair 1.50

Draw or CeltaLikely60.0%Fair 1.67

Model read

Little between these two in the data. Elche at 40% is as close to a call as the model will offer for 11 October 2026. Totals sit close to the fence: 51% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 55%. Schedule edge: Celta have had 3 more days of rest than Elche. For shots markets, Fernando Niño is the obvious watch at 1.7 on target per 90 in recent data. Head to head, the last 5 meetings gave 1 wins for Elche, 0 draws and 4 for Celta, averaging 2.0 goals a game. Recent form reads W0 D2 L4 for Elche against W0 D4 L2 for Celta. Verdict: no bet. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Value & higher-risk angles

Outcomes the model rates higher than the obvious price suggests, plus a few long-shot scorelines that are simply possible. These are the least likely calls on the page, so treat them as such. They are not tips, and we do not beat the sharp bookmakers.

High risk

Over 9.5 corners43.7%@ 2.29

Over 10.5 corners33.6%@ 2.98

Celta win33.1%@ 3.02

Medium risk

Both teams to score55.4%@ 1.81

Over 8.5 corners54.8%@ 1.82

Over 2.5 goals50.7%@ 1.97

Random finds

1-1 correct score12.8%@ 7.79

1-0 correct score8.8%@ 11.39

2-1 correct score8.5%@ 11.71

Model vs market

Elche

40.0%

Draw

26.9%

Celta

33.1%

Model

no bookmaker price published for this match yet

Goals

Over 1.5Strongest read · Very likely75.8%Fair 1.32

Over 2.5Close call50.7%Fair 1.97

BTTS · YesClose call55.4%Fair 1.81

Corners

Over 8.5 cornersClose call54.8%Fair 1.82

Over 9.5 cornersUnlikely43.7%Fair 2.29

Over 10.5 cornersUnlikely33.6%Fair 2.98

Over 11.5 cornersLong shot24.9%Fair 4.02

Most cornersElche58.8%Celta30.4%

Shots

Over 22.5 shotsLikely60.1%Fair 1.66

Over 24.5 shotsClose call47.4%Fair 2.11

Over 26.5 shotsUnlikely35.2%Fair 2.84

Over 28.5 shotsLong shot24.7%Fair 4.06

Recent shot volume

Elche11.7 taken14.0 faced

Celta9.8 taken12.7 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

First half / second half shots

Shots before and after the break, per game, across the number of games in brackets. The bar shows how much of the shooting happens in the first half. These come from a different source than the match shot totals above, and we only count a match when the shots before the break add up to the actual half-time score. A match where they did not is left out rather than guessed at, which is why the two sets of numbers can differ.

Elche (6 games)

3.2 / 8.7

Celta (6 games)

3.8 / 6.0

Totals line guide

0.5·1.575.8%2.550.7%3.5·4.5·

Recommended focusOver 1.575.8%

Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Form & head-to-head

ElcheLLLDL

CeltaLLDDD

Last 5 meetings: Elche 1 · 0 draws · Celta 4 · 2.0 goals/game.

2026-05-03Celta 3-1 Elche

2025-09-28Elche 2-1 Celta

2023-04-26Celta 1-0 Elche

2023-01-06Elche 0-1 Celta

2022-05-15Celta 1-0 Elche

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

Elche

Celta

League position#18 of 20#12 of 20

Record W-D-L1-2-41-4-2

Current streakW1W1

Points per game0.711.00

Record, home vs away0-0-30-3-0

PPG, home vs away0.001.00

Goals scored per game1.571.14

Goals conceded per game2.430.86

Scored, home vs away1.330.33

Conceded, home vs away3.670.33

1st half goals per game0.000.33

2nd half goals per game1.330.17

Corners won per game4.73.3

Cards per game2.51.7

Fouls per game14.310.3

Red cards this season01

Shots per game11.79.8

Shots faced per game14.012.7

Shots on target per game4.82.8

1st half shots per game3.23.8

2nd half shots per game8.76.0

xG for per game1.401.09

xG against per game2.241.31

Over 2.5 rate

71.4%28.6%

BTTS rate

85.7%42.9%

Clean sheets

0.0%42.9%

Rates this season:ElcheCelta

League averages this season: 3.08 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 57% · BTTS in 57%. Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Fernando NiñoElche · key player

To score51.2%1.95

1+ on target72.3%1.38

2+ shots46.6%2.15

Shots/90 2.06SoT/90 1.68Goals/90 0.94

Ferrán JutglàCelta · key player

To score23.7%4.22

1+ on target54.4%1.84

2+ shots40.0%2.50

Shots/90 2.19SoT/90 1.25Goals/90 0.43

Lucas CepedaElche · in form

To score5.7%17.54

1+ on target44.4%2.25

2+ shots37.1%2.70

Shots/90 3.28SoT/90 1.49Goals/90 0.15

Borja IglesiasCelta · in form

To score27.3%3.66

1+ on target50.8%1.97

2+ shots36.4%2.75

Shots/90 2.16SoT/90 1.2Goals/90 0.54

Facundo BuonanotteElche · in form

To score13.1%7.63

1+ on target34.0%2.94

2+ shots34.5%2.90

Shots/90 2.44SoT/90 0.83Goals/90 0.28

Iago AspasCelta · in form

To score19.9%5.03

1+ on target40.8%2.45

2+ shots33.3%3.00

Shots/90 2.52SoT/90 1.11Goals/90 0.47

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Elche win2.59

Draw3.70

Celta win2.91

Both teams to score1.80

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.08

Over 1.5 goals1.32

Over 2.5 goals1.97

Over 3.5 goals3.49

Elche most2.59

Celta most2.91

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.45

Over 8.5 corners1.76

Over 9.5 corners2.26

Over 10.5 corners3.05

Elche most1.70

Celta most3.29

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.28

Over 3.5 cards1.67

Over 4.5 cards2.42

Over 5.5 cards3.92

Elche most2.49

Celta most2.49

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.36

Over 7.5 SoT1.63

Over 8.5 SoT2.07

Over 9.5 SoT2.77

Elche most1.89

Celta most2.90

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.66

Over 24.5 shots2.11

Over 26.5 shots2.84

Over 28.5 shots4.06

Elche most1.60

Celta most3.18

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.23

Over 22.5 fouls1.42

Over 24.5 fouls1.75

All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5	60.1%	Over 24.5	47.4%	Over 26.5	35.2%	Over 28.5	24.7%
Most: Elche	62.5%	Most: Celta	31.5%
Elche Over 13.2	46.9%	Celta Over 13.2	25.4%

Shots on target

Over 6.5	73.5%	Over 7.5	61.2%	Over 8.5	48.3%	Over 9.5	36.1%
Most: Elche	52.8%	Most: Celta	34.4%
Elche Over 4.2	48.9%	Celta Over 4.2	35.7%

Cards

Over 2.5	78.2%	Over 3.5	60.0%	Over 4.5	41.3%
Most: Elche	40.2%	Most: Celta	40.2%
Elche Over 1.8	61.3%	Celta Over 1.8	61.3%

Elche: players to watch (recent-form projection)

Each number is the player’s recent rate per 90 minutes, scaled to how long we expect them to play. Only players in this season’s squad appear. It is a projection from recent form, not a confirmed lineup: nobody has announced the team yet.

Player	Shots/90	SoT/90	Goals/90	1+ SoT	2+ shots	To score
Fernando Niño	2.06	1.68	0.94	72.3%	46.6%	51.2%
Lucas Cepeda	3.28	1.49	0.15	44.4%	37.1%	5.7%
Facundo Buonanotte	2.44	0.83	0.28	34.0%	34.5%	13.1%
Thomas Lemar	1.33	0.61	0.24	24.4%	12.5%	10.4%
Tete Morente	1.47	0.38	0.09	23.8%	28.3%	6.2%

Celta: players to watch (recent-form projection)

Player	Shots/90	SoT/90	Goals/90	1+ SoT	2+ shots	To score
Ferrán Jutglà	2.19	1.25	0.43	54.4%	40.0%	23.7%
Borja Iglesias	2.16	1.2	0.54	50.8%	36.4%	27.3%
Iago Aspas	2.52	1.11	0.47	40.8%	33.3%	19.9%
Williot Swedberg	1.73	0.83	0.27	33.1%	20.5%	12.3%
Pablo Durán	2.01	0.81	0.24	36.3%	30.8%	12.5%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Worked out from the scoreline grid above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the other side fails to score. It is the model’s own percentage, scored against the result afterwards, and it is not a tip.

Elche clean sheet	27.1%
Celta clean sheet	24.7%
Elche win to nil	19.8%
Celta win to nil	17.3%

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

The model’s own percentages, with no odds attached. The smaller markets are here so you can see everything we hold a number on, not because we claim an advantage in them. The colour says how close our percentages have landed to reality on matches the model had never seen.

Match result & goals calibrated

1×2

home	38.7%	draw	27.0%	away	34.3%

double_chance

1X	65.7%	12	73.0%	X2	61.3%

dnb

home	53.0%	away	47.0%

btts

yes	55.4%	no	44.6%

clean_sheet

home	27.2%	away	24.7%

win_to_nil

home	19.8%	away	17.4%

winning_margin

home_by_1	20.3%	home_by_2	11.6%	home_by_3plus	6.8%
away_by_1	18.9%	away_by_2	10.1%	away_by_3plus	5.3%

correct_score

0-0	7.3%	0-1	8.1%	0-2	5.7%
0-3	2.5%	0-4	0.8%	0-5	0.2%
1-0	8.8%	1-1	12.8%	1-2	8.0%
1-3	3.5%	1-4	1.1%	1-5	0.3%
2-0	6.6%	2-1	8.5%	2-2	5.6%
2-3	2.4%	2-4	0.8%	2-5	0.2%
3-0	3.1%	3-1	4.0%	3-2	2.6%
3-3	1.1%	3-4	0.4%	3-5	0.1%
4-0	1.1%	4-1	1.4%	4-2	0.9%
4-3	0.4%	4-4	0.1%	4-5	0.0%
5-0	0.3%	5-1	0.4%	5-2	0.3%
5-3	0.1%	5-4	0.0%	5-5	0.0%
other	0.5%

likeliest_score

h	100.0%	a	100.0%	p	12.8%

Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated

total

over_0.5	92.7%	under_0.5	7.3%	over_1.5	75.8%
under_1.5	24.2%	over_2.5	50.7%	under_2.5	49.3%
over_3.5	28.6%	under_3.5	71.4%	over_4.5	13.7%
under_4.5	86.3%	over_5.5	5.7%	under_5.5	94.3%

odd_even

odd	48.6%	even	51.4%

team_home

over_0.5	75.3%	under_0.5	24.7%	over_1.5	40.7%
under_1.5	59.3%	over_2.5	16.6%	under_2.5	83.4%

team_away

over_0.5	72.8%	under_0.5	27.2%	over_1.5	37.4%
under_1.5	62.6%	over_2.5	14.4%	under_2.5	85.6%

most

home	38.7%	draw	27.0%	away	34.3%

handicap

home_-2.5	6.8%	away_+2.5	93.2%	home_-1.5	18.3%
away_+1.5	81.7%	home_-0.5	38.7%	away_+0.5	61.3%
home_+0.5	65.7%	away_-0.5	34.3%	home_+1.5	84.6%
away_-1.5	15.4%	home_+2.5	94.7%	away_-2.5	5.3%

total_exact

exact_0	7.3%	exact_1	16.9%	exact_2	25.1%
exact_3	22.0%	exact_4	14.9%	exact_5	8.1%
exact_6	3.6%	exact_7plus	2.1%

First half range, not a point

1×2

home	25.2%	draw	43.6%	away	31.2%

total

over_0.5	67.4%	under_0.5	32.6%	over_1.5	30.8%
under_1.5	69.2%	over_2.5	10.4%	under_2.5	89.6%

btts

yes	18.3%	no	81.8%

total_exact

exact_0	32.6%	exact_1	36.5%	exact_2	20.5%
exact_3	7.6%	exact_4plus	2.7%

Second half range, not a point

1×2

home	36.7%	draw	35.0%	away	28.3%

total

over_0.5	80.1%	under_0.5	19.9%	over_1.5	48.0%
under_1.5	52.0%	over_2.5	22.1%	under_2.5	77.9%

btts

yes	30.5%	no	69.5%

Half-time / full-time range, not a point

H/H	19.2%	H/D	4.2%	H/A	1.7%
D/H	16.0%	D/D	15.3%	D/A	12.4%
A/H	3.2%	A/D	6.2%	A/A	21.9%

Corners range, not a point

total

over_7.5	69.0%	under_7.5	31.0%	over_8.5	56.7%
under_8.5	43.3%	over_9.5	44.2%	under_9.5	55.8%
over_10.5	32.7%	under_10.5	67.3%	over_11.5	23.0%
under_11.5	77.0%	over_12.5	15.4%	under_12.5	84.6%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_3.5	73.7%	under_3.5	26.3%	over_4.5	58.3%
under_4.5	41.7%	over_5.5	42.9%	under_5.5	57.2%

team_away

over_3.5	53.9%	under_3.5	46.1%	over_4.5	36.4%
under_4.5	63.6%	over_5.5	22.4%	under_5.5	77.6%

most

home	58.9%	draw	10.7%	away	30.4%

handicap

home_-3.5	26.6%	away_+3.5	73.4%	home_-1.5	47.6%
away_+1.5	52.4%	home_-0.5	58.9%	away_+0.5	41.1%
home_+0.5	69.6%	away_-0.5	30.4%	home_+1.5	78.8%
away_-1.5	21.2%	home_+3.5	91.4%	away_-3.5	8.6%

Shots range, not a point

total

over_22.5	60.1%	under_22.5	39.9%	over_24.5	47.4%
under_24.5	52.6%	over_26.5	35.2%	under_26.5	64.8%
over_28.5	24.7%	under_28.5	75.3%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_10.5	72.0%	under_10.5	28.0%	over_12.5	55.4%
under_12.5	44.7%	over_14.5	38.8%	under_14.5	61.2%

team_away

over_10.5	51.0%	under_10.5	49.0%	over_12.5	32.9%
under_12.5	67.1%	over_14.5	19.0%	under_14.5	81.0%

most

home	62.5%	draw	6.0%	away	31.5%

handicap

home_-4.5	37.1%	away_+4.5	62.9%	home_-2.5	49.8%
away_+2.5	50.2%	home_-0.5	62.5%	away_+0.5	37.5%
home_+0.5	68.5%	away_-0.5	31.5%	home_+2.5	79.0%
away_-2.5	21.0%	home_+4.5	87.1%	away_-4.5	12.9%

Shots on target range, not a point

total

over_6.5	73.5%	under_6.5	26.5%	over_7.5	61.2%
under_7.5	38.8%	over_8.5	48.3%	under_8.5	51.7%
over_9.5	36.1%	under_9.5	63.9%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_3.5	66.5%	under_3.5	33.5%	over_4.5	48.9%
under_4.5	51.1%	over_5.5	32.8%	under_5.5	67.2%

team_away

over_3.5	54.0%	under_3.5	46.0%	over_4.5	35.7%
under_4.5	64.3%	over_5.5	21.2%	under_5.5	78.8%

most

home	52.8%	draw	12.8%	away	34.4%

handicap

home_-2.5	27.9%	away_+2.5	72.1%	home_-0.5	52.8%
away_+0.5	47.2%	home_+0.5	65.6%	away_-0.5	34.4%
home_+2.5	85.5%	away_-2.5	14.5%

Cards calibrated

total

over_2.5	78.2%	under_2.5	21.8%	over_3.5	60.1%
under_3.5	40.0%	over_4.5	41.3%	under_4.5	58.7%
over_5.5	25.5%	under_5.5	74.5%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_1.5	61.3%	under_1.5	38.7%	over_2.5	35.2%
under_2.5	64.8%

team_away

over_1.5	61.3%	under_1.5	38.7%	over_2.5	35.2%
under_2.5	64.8%

most

home	40.2%	draw	19.6%	away	40.2%

handicap

home_-1.5	23.0%	away_+1.5	77.0%	home_-0.5	40.2%
away_+0.5	59.8%	home_+0.5	59.8%	away_-0.5	40.2%
home_+1.5	77.0%	away_-1.5	23.0%

Fouls calibrated

total

over_20.5	81.4%	under_20.5	18.6%	over_22.5	70.2%
under_22.5	29.8%	over_24.5	57.2%	under_24.5	42.8%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_9.5	79.3%	under_9.5	20.7%	over_11.5	61.9%
under_11.5	38.1%	over_13.5	43.0%	under_13.5	57.0%

team_away

over_9.5	77.9%	under_9.5	22.1%	over_11.5	60.0%
under_11.5	40.0%	over_13.5	41.0%	under_13.5	59.0%

most

home	48.0%	draw	6.8%	away	45.2%

handicap

home_-3.5	28.7%	away_+3.5	71.3%	home_-0.5	48.0%
away_+0.5	52.0%	home_+2.5	67.8%	away_-2.5	32.2%

Red card range, not a point

any

yes	19.8%	no	80.2%

home

yes	13.9%	no	86.1%

away

yes	6.9%	no	93.1%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55416 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Elche predictions · Celta predictions · La Liga

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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