AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 13 Oct 2026

Bundesliga
FreiburgFreiburgWWWWD
Full time2-1Sun, 11 Oct 202611/1016:30UK14°C · Cloudy
Schalke 04Schalke 04LLDWD

Freiburg 2-1 Schalke 04 corners: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 9.5 cornersBoth teams combined50.2%
Under 9.5 cornersBoth teams combined49.8%

Result

Freiburg2-1Schalke 04
9 cornersFreiburg 7, Schalke 04 2
Over 9.5

We called Over 9.5 at 50.2% and it missed (9 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 9.5 corners50.2%

Corners

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

The corners market rewards teams that camp in the final third, below are the model total-corner probabilities. The model edges Freiburg.

Total corners

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
7.5 corners 73.8% 26.2%
8.5 corners 62.3% 37.7%
9.5 corners 50.2% 49.8%
10.5 corners 38.5% 61.6%
11.5 corners 28.1% 71.9%
12.5 corners 19.5% 80.5%

Who wins the corner count

Freiburg
57.5%
Level
10.5%
Schalke 04
32.1%

Team corners lines

Freiburg

Over 3.5
75.7%
Over 4.5
60.9%
Over 5.5
45.7%

Schalke 04

Over 3.5
59.0%
Over 4.5
41.6%
Over 5.5
26.9%

Corner handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Freiburg's; Schalke 04 gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Freiburg line Freiburg Schalke 04
-3.5 26.3% 73.7%
-1.5 46.5% 53.5%
-0.5 57.5% 42.6%
+0.5 67.9% 32.1%

Corners accuracy

How our Corners calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

54.0%Best Corners call, hit rate
0.0095Calibration error
50,938Matches graded

In 24,028 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Corners actually happened 54.2% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Corners calls

Our most recent Corners calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 55.9%✓ 52.1%✓ 53.5%✓ 50.6%✓ 53.9%✗ 51.1%✗ 50.7%✗ 58.3%✓ 55.7%✗ 59.5%
5 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Under 9.5 55.9%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Over 9.5 52.1%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Under 9.5 53.5%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Under 9.5 50.6%Hit
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Under 9.5 53.9%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 9.5 corners at 50.2%, its strongest read on the Corners market. The total-corners ladder runs from 73.8% for over 7.5 to 19.5% for over 12.5, with over 9.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 50.2%. Head to head on corners, Freiburg are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 57.5%, with a level count at 10.5%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.

In-depth analysis

Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.

50.2%Over 9.5 corners
57.5%Most corners: Freiburg
60.9%Freiburg over 4.5 corners
41.6%Schalke 04 over 4.5 corners
50.0%Odd corner total

For the team lines, Freiburg over 4.5 corners sits at 60.9% and Schalke 04 at 41.6%.

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 50.2% on Corners. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Territory ReaderFreiburg are the pick to win the corner count at 57.5%, corners follow pressure, and pressure follows the side with the ball in the final third.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 9.5 corners: over sits at 50.2%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
The RealistOver 9.5 is a coin-flip in the model, the honest read is low conviction, no strong lean.

FAQ

How many corners in Freiburg vs Schalke 04?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 9.5 total corners at 50.2% for Freiburg vs Schalke 04.
Which team will win the corner count in Freiburg vs Schalke 04?
Before kickoff, the model rated Freiburg to win the corner count at 57.5%, with a level count at 10.5%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

More Bundesliga, Corners

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Corner predictions today

Related

BundesligaFreiburg fixtures and statsSchalke 04 fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.