AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

Eredivisie
For SittardFor SittardWLWDD
Full time1-0Sun, 25 Oct 202625/1011:15UK
ExcelsiorExcelsiorDLDLL

Fortuna Sittard 1-0 Excelsior cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined68.7%
Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined31.3%

Result

For Sittard1-0Excelsior
3 yellow cardsFor Sittard 2, Excelsior 1
0 red cardsFor Sittard 0, Excelsior 0
Under 3.5No

We called Under 3.5 at 68.7% and it landed (3 in the match). We called No at 89.7% and it landed (0 in the match).

Model read

A clear lean on the model's numbers.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Strong

Over 3.5 cards31.3%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

Ingmar Oostrom

Recorded match referee.

Ingmar Oostrom in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 16 4
Goals 3.81 Not available
Yellow cards 2.88 Not available
Red cards 0.12 Not available
Corners 9.8 Not available
Fouls 24.0 Not available
Both teams scored 69% Not available
Over 2.5 goals 69% Not available
Home wins 63% Not available
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
25 Oct 2026 For Sittard vs Excelsior 1-0 1 No 3 0 11 27
12 Sep 2026 Cambuur vs Nijmegen 3-0 3 No 6 0 9 34
6 Sep 2026 Den Haag vs For Sittard 2-3 5 Yes 4 0 2 33
14 Aug 2026 Telstar vs Sparta Rotterdam 1-3 4 Yes 2 0 12 30
17 May 2026 Utrecht vs For Sittard 2-0 2 No 1 0 7 16
2 May 2026 Groningen vs Excelsior 2-3 5 Yes 0 0 13 15
5 Apr 2026 Heerenveen vs Heracles 4-1 5 Yes 1 0 9 22
21 Mar 2026 For Sittard vs Twente 1-2 3 Yes 2 0 13 21
15 Feb 2026 Heerenveen vs Zwolle 4-2 6 Yes 1 0 7 14
25 Jan 2026 Groningen vs For Sittard 1-2 3 Yes 5 0 19 27

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for For Sittard vs Excelsior. It tips Excelsior for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 53.3% 46.7%
3.5 cards 31.3% 68.7%
4.5 cards 15.7% 84.3%
5.5 cards 6.9% 93.1%

Who picks up more cards

For Sittard
31.9%
Level
24.9%
Excelsior
43.2%

Team cards lines

For Sittard

Over 1.5
36.6%
Over 2.5
14.0%

Excelsior

Over 1.5
45.3%
Over 2.5
20.2%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is For Sittard's; Excelsior gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

For Sittard line For Sittard Excelsior
-1.5 13.8% 86.2%
-0.5 31.9% 68.1%
+0.5 56.8% 43.2%
+1.5 78.3% 21.7%

Red card

Any red card10.3%
For Sittard red card7.7%
Excelsior red card2.8%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 54.6% 45.4%
22.5 fouls 39.2% 60.8%
24.5 fouls 25.9% 74.2%
For SittardFor Sittard

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means For Sittard at home and Excelsior away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

ExcelsiorExcelsior
Statistic
For Sittard
Excelsior
Yellow cards per game
1.7
·

First-half yellow cards per game
0.7
·

Second-half yellow cards per game
1.0
·

Matches with card data
2
0

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 7,352 matches we rated like this one (30–40%), Cards actually happened 40.0% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 31.3%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 53.3% for over 2.5 to 6.9% for over 5.5, with over 2.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 53.3%. Between the two sides, Excelsior are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 43.2%, with a level count at 24.9%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.

In-depth analysis

Split by side, For Sittard over 1.5 cards sits at 36.6% and Excelsior at 45.3%. A red card for either side is rated at 10.3% (For Sittard 7.7%, Excelsior 2.8%).

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.

31.3%Over 3.5 cards
10.3%Any red card
43.2%Most cards: Excelsior
36.6%For Sittard over 1.5 cards
45.3%Excelsior over 1.5 cards
39.2%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 31.3% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 10.3%, a low-probability event, but one that reshapes every line when it lands.
The DisciplinarianExcelsior are the pick to collect more cards at 43.2%, bookings follow the side defending under pressure.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 2.5 cards: over sits at 53.3%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
For SittardFor Sittard

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

ExcelsiorExcelsior
Statistic
For Sittard
Excelsior
fouls per game
9.0
·

Bar scales · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in For Sittard vs Excelsior?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 31.3% for For Sittard vs Excelsior.
Will there be a red card in For Sittard vs Excelsior?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 10.3%.
Which team will pick up more cards in For Sittard vs Excelsior?
Before kickoff, the model rated Excelsior to pick up more cards at 43.2%, with a level count at 24.9%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.